Jump to content

The Perfume Counter


Recommended Posts

Mark?s Market Commentary ? December 23, 2002

 

Yesterday, I went into Nordstrom?s (JWN), and as usual, the perfume counter was crowded with high-end well-kept Manhattan Beach supermodels, complete with slightly exposed flat stomachs and larger than normal breasts.

 

At first, I was ignored like the plague, assumed to be yet another pervert lurker hanging around the malls attempting to gawk where there were guaranteed high concentration levels of attractive women.

 

But then, I decided to approach the counter, looking for a bottle of perfume for a girlfriend. The trouble was, I could not remember the correct brand.

 

?Can I help you find something??

 

?I doubt it. I?m looking for a specific bottle of perfume, but I don?t remember the name.?

 

Immediately, I was swamped with attention. Either the girls assumed I was gay and harmless, or that I was one of the ?sensitive, thoughtful? ones who actually cared about the proper perfume selection for a girlfriend.

 

?Here, try this!! Is this the right one??

 

?No, but let me see that bottle?

 

Every one of these girls was desperate to bag a huge commission by pushing some expensive perfume gift pack, so I milked it for all it was worth, making 4 or 5 rounds around the counter. Watching each of them lean over to reach into the perfume case so I could glance at their breasts.

 

?Let me spray a sample on this testing strip. Maybe you would recognize the scent?

 

?Thanks, but I would rather you spray that on your neck, so I can lean over and get a close up whiff myself?

 

It was an extravaganza. All the girls were dressed to the nines. Several of mixed race and origin. All American and foreign exotica. What a spectacular show I had.

 

Next stop: Victoria?s Secret

 

Lately, the mutual fund industry has started to suffer from so light outflows. So the players in the fund business are getting a little anxious to suck in some more ?shoppers? in order to attract money to their fund.

 

Can you imagine being a hapless ?shopper?, walking into a retail branch of Merrill Lynch?

 

At first, he is ignored. Probably some conspiracy freak trying to get information on gold bullion.

 

?Can I help you, sir??

 

?Uhh, I need to start saving for retirement. Maybe a mutual fund. But I have no idea which kind. I?m clueless.?

 

Immediately, the sharks converge.

 

Then some bald gangster wearing a suit who looks like Richard ?Hit Man? Grasso or Jack ?Tin Man? Welch anxiously rushes you into his office, pushing you into some proprietary ?Special Situations Growth Fund? with a 5% load.

???..

 

We are also seeing some desperation creep into those who work behind the Nasdaq counter.

 

Anybody seen those Nasdaq 100 television ads recently? With frat boy Michael Dell and his puffy, arrogant face? Or how about that tired, old, penny pinching shopkeeper that runs Costco (COST)? And then there are the super slick sharks who look like Hollywood celebrities, like the guys that run Starbucks(SBUX) and JetBlue (JBLU).

 

Why don?t they drag out Bernie ?O Canada? Ebbers? Or how about those oily CEO?s who ran VTSS and AMCC who cashed out at the top? Oh, I forgot. They were conveniently ejected from the NDX.

 

And speaking of DELL, anybody sick of those 21-year old interns wearing green outfits and Dell badges hanging around their necks? I?m sure DELL has the luxury of available free cash flow to finance hordes of youngsters touring around the facility with their little clipboards.

 

Anybody have their eye on that skinny girl in the group? What is she like? When are we going to see a full head to toe shot of her? How are those 21 year old guys able to keep a straight face? At least they were able to get rid of that ?Dude, You Got A Dell? punkster.

 

How about that ?customer service? center in Round Rock stocked full of young, attractive girls from University of Texas? Does it really exist? Or is the real call center located in a boiler room in N. Dakota where labor is cheaper? Or maybe in a dungeon in Pakistan, where English-trained tech geeks take phone orders for $3/hour?

 

With the stock trading at 56x last year?s ?As Good As It Gets? operating earnings, further cost cutting pressures must be intense. I doubt that DELL is shelling out $18/hour to college students.

 

Anybody tired of those NY Life commercials? When are we going to see a ?foreclosure? sign on that 1920?s vintage building of theirs? Who would buy one of those expensive annuities or those proprietary ?investment? products?

 

How many funds do they have?

 

How is theirs different from others?

 

Why haven?t we seen some of these funds collapse?

 

How come there are still more funds traded than individual stocks?

 

When will the run on the fund complex start?

 

Why has it taken so long?

 

Maybe the ?overhead supply? is not quite heavy enough to start any meaningful selling. But its out there, hanging like a cloud over Cheat Street. And the group to watch the most closely is the European insurers.

 

Here are a couple of examples from today?s The Wall Street Journal:

 

American Skandia was recently pushing its variable annuity product to hapless sheep through its superstar sales force.

 

?Few companies were as aggressive in enticing investors as Skandia, which recorded $8.2 billion in annuity sales in 2000, guaranteeing holders that their investments would double in 10 years, and providing a minimum 6% return regardless of how stocks did.?

 

And who did Skandia hire to manage its portfolio? None other than the HeatMappers over at Anus Twenty.

 

Skandia started what amounted to an ?arms race?, upping the bonuses and payouts to get people to change annuity programs. Other insurers were forced to follow suit:

 

?Initially big insurers resisted offering similar bonus products, but within a few years big players including ING, ManuLife, and Hartford also offered bonuses. So began a high stakes game, with money flowing to the firm offering the best deal.?

 

?It was a merry-go-round of cash flow?, says Rick Carey of Variable Annuity Research.

 

With a rising bull market, guaranteeing those fat returns was a no-brainer. But now that the stock market has collapsed, these firms are now stuck with underwater portfolios, yet they must continue paying out the minimums.

 

Now that stocks are tanking, Skandia is in trouble. In 2001, its annuity sales dropped by 21%. Anus Twenty was fired, because ?so much of its business was acquired at the market?s peak and went into tech stocks which subsequently suffered huge declines?.

 

Now all the insurers are taking hits. Skandia took a $183 million hit, more than the $135 million profit earned in the last two years. Cigna took a $720 million charge, Allamerica a $760 million charge, and Nationwide a $225 million charge. John Hancock?s CEO said ?the market?s decline has made any assumptions about expected future profits for variable products unrealistic.?

 

Skandia announced today that it sold its U.S. unit to Prudential for $1.3 billion, taking a $496 million loss on the sale.

 

So what do you think? Are these insurers going to be buyers in 2003? Or anxious sellers?

 

In the meantime, Allianz new CEO is trying to figure out how to satisfy its advertising claim ?a promise is a promise?. Yet another behemoth using little girls to hide its incompetence in order to drum up more business. The bear market has mauled this company, since it has over $51 billion invested in Germany?s banks, insurers, and industrial groups. ?Mr. Achleitner?s main role will be the continued unwinding of Allianz?s vast portfolio of shareholdings in German industry and finance.? Efforts to sell these holdings ?has been stalled by the stock market downturn, but we will continue to actively manage our portfolio. The reallocation of our investments will not happen overnight.?

 

What does this mean? Sounds to me that ?actively manage? means ?Sell on Strength?, and that ?reallocation of investments? means ?get rid of these dog stock investments?. And ?will not happen overnight? means that ?frequent jamming of the markets via U.S. stock futures manipulation will provide satisfactory exit points for our underwater positions from time to time?.

 

Once again. Is Allianz going to be a buyer or a seller in 2003?

 

More evidence of oversupply can be found by reading the story of AOL?s ex-CEO Gerald Levin. For years, Levin made up to $10 million a year, most of which was used to invest in expensive real estate.

 

The Levins had extravagant tastes. Their Manhattan apartment was described as ?A Victorian mother of pearl settee that once upon a time held court in Woolworth princess Barbara Hutton?s place in Tangiers? with ?lamps made from working Senegalese yodeling horns? and ?19th century intricately carved walnut side tables?, etc.

 

But unlike most tech company CEO?s, Levin was not a world class stock market technician like Rob Deiner at ROOM who was keenly able to ?sell at the top? last week. And unfortunately, most of Levin?s lavish real estate holding were acquired with debt. No doubt on the expectation that the AOL stock would recover. Because Al Green said so. Because the ?economic recovery? is ongoing. Because stocks never go down more than 3 years in a row.

 

But now he?s stuck.

 

Levin still owned 2.5 million shares of AOL and about 10 million in options last summer.

 

?With the collapse of AOL?s stock price, the accumulated debt is a burden. The stock?s drop to a low of $8.70 in July wiped out the value of the options and decimated the value of his stockholding. Under pressure from lenders, Mr. Levin was forced to begin selling stock at low levels.? Now most of his stock has been offloaded near the lows. The options are worthless unless AOL gets up to $18/share.

 

Anybody wanna guess if any sellers will show up if the stock hits $18?

 

How about CMGI? If the Riverboaters start pushing that stock up again, you think New Jersey's Pension Fund will be waiting with sell tickets?

 

Since AOL the stock didn?t recover, much of Levin?s real estate is now up for sale. The race to liquidate assets is on. Levin is smart enough to get out of his $20 million in loans ASAP. The Levins Upper East Side apartment, which occupies 3 floors in the River House Building, is for sale for $7 million. A group of Santa Fe, New Mexico condo buildings are for sale for $6 million, with a nearby 6,000 sq. ft. vacation house for sale at $3 million.

 

So far, only one condo has sold. ?The high-end market is saturated?, says a Santa Fe broker.

 

Yet another example of ?overhead supply? in stocks, soon to be compounded by ?overhead supply? in high-end vacation property.

 

As far as today?s action, nothing but a bunch of anxious Riverboaters trying to use the low volume to push stocks around. The Nasdaq was punched up the most, as the HeatMappers are trying one last hysteria jam to squeak out that extra ?% gain for the year end statement print.

 

Notice how Al Green?s ear implant went off once again, as the dollar threatened to break off to new lows. Program Robot Buy Orders were immediately issued on the U.S. Dollar futures, yet gold failed to tank. In fact, gold took off to the upside, taking out last Friday afternoon?s high.

 

I think that the jig is up on Al Green?s Reliquifaction Blender.

 

More juice can be obtained in order to jam stocks, support the long bond, protect the dollar, etc., but not without sending gold on a bottle rocket ride north.

 

Lots of tech stocks are DoverSole. A squeeze should be forthcoming.

 

Buddha thinks so:

 

"Most Charting Pavlovians are accumulating short positions and mortgaging their mothers into possible servitude in the Arabian deserts, so convinced are they of the wisdom of this move. However the Lizard King, Al Green, the most famous vacuum pumper perhaps in history, can read a chart too. He has consistently squeezed out shorts, savaging otherwise logical positions and counter trading like a devil from the 7th rung down in Hell itself. I think he juices this thing one more time at least to spread fear and panic amongst the fundamentalists. I think we see one more 'Godzilla loose in downtown Tokyo' move. The old man will be cackling again to himself, throwing down obscenities on the Market as he punches in S&P futures contracts off his lap top while farting toxic bubbles up to the sizzling surface of his stinking bath water."

 

 

Position Summary:

 

No changes.

 

We are 42% short, 22% long, 36% cash.

 

Half Short:

 

LOW at $42

INTU at $53

C at $38

TGT at $34

MBI at $50

JPM at $25

AMGN at $52

 

Quarter Short:

 

FRE at $68

CFC at $49

KBH at $49

LEN at $56

TOL at $27

BBBY at $35

COCO at $40

KSS at $66

 

Full Long:

 

GG at $11

 

Half Long:

 

BGO at $1.31

HL at $4.10

PAAS at $5

DROOY at $3.35

GLG at $9

MDG at $16

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 48
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Skeletor (Governor Gray Davis) was on Crapvision this afternoon.

 

When asked about the shortfall, he avoided the question.

 

The real truth is that the California Legislator and Governor spent EVERY penny of the surpluses of the past several years. Heck, they even created new social programs. Republicans warned the Democrats that the income from stock options and capital gains would not last forever, Dems did not listen.

 

When asked how the shortfall would be covered, Davis said his ideas would be announced January 10th.

 

Why not tell us now? He already brought back the legislator on Dec 9th to discuss the issue.

 

The reason is simple...he does not want to crush the Sheeple and prevent them from maxing out their credit cards during the Christmas season. He is simply afraid to scare California citizens.

 

I can here it now...

 

Davis proposes retroactive income tax increases.

 

or

 

Davis proposes 20 cent per gallon CA tax increase on gasoline.

 

or

 

Davis proposes increase of sales tax to 10%.

 

or

 

Davis proposes huge gas guzzler tax on SUV's.

 

or

 

Davis proposes increasing cigarette taxes by .50 cents per pack.

 

or

 

Davis proposes charging everyone CA citizen .02 cents per mile tax on driving.

 

 

For all we know, he will propose ALL of these. I am hoping what few Republicans there are can stop this crap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only in Merika: The approximate reason for strength in the nazdogs was the buyout of INKT by YHOO for $235m. Too bad INKT topped out at a market cap of $35B. So, YHOO was willing to pay less than 1% of peak pricing and this is the dawn of a new bull market?

 

Happy Holidays Stoolville!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

wooooooooooooowza,

 

hey there mark, this one is a true masterpiece. think i'll print and frame it. bwahahahahahaahaha

 

i added SYMC apr45 puts today and of course did my obligatory single spooz at the close sale, am tripping off to the Caribbean on Thursday so Lana and i would like to wish all here at M2M a blessed, pork-fed and mushu filled New Year.

 

i posted rather late last night on M2M so for any who missed it or my late IDS post today. from our home to all of stooltown's.

 

"for the rest of Stoolville- rog- this one is for you.

 

as an early Xmas and a late Hanukkah gift i am giving back to all those who so humbly and unselfishly have given to me. some of you have asked me where i and others like me go for deep info, research, or trustworthy analysis- its a precious commodity nowadays for sure.

 

well we IM each other daily and talk often in the week to share info, data, studies, and gossip, hey we are human dontchaknow. but since so many here are Cmap, Ewave, and Ozzie fans i never thought anyone really cared so i never offered, well some one asked so i will now share one of my most prized online possesions- and before the complaints start rolling in, i know, i know they aint cheap, so enough already, but you DO get what you pay for. plus Lana luvs em:

 

stooltown, rog et.al - merry xmas:

 

http://www.apolloresearch.com

 

 

stay nimble stay focused and hey, smoke em"

 

so says i,

 

MERCILESS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How about that ?customer service? center in Round Rock stocked full of young, attractive girls from University of Texas? Does it really exist? Or is the real call center located in a boiler room in N. Dakota where labor is cheaper? Or maybe in a dungeon in Pakistan, where English-trained tech geeks take phone orders for $3/hour?

 

it does really exist, in fact it's so big it's bizarre. you can drive for a mile and still be on or in or around the 'dell campus'.

 

dell did its layoffs early in 2001, so the stink had dissipated by the time the major media started whispering 'double dip', but over two years a spectacular number of friends & acquaintances were furloughed or dismissed when their companies were vaporized.

 

we left austin recently and were fortunate; very few there can sell their houses now, including our own realtor. a month ago there were 10,000 homes for sale in a city of a million; that's an available house for every 30something households. the former highflyers who want to dump their mcmansions for something else at half the cost often can't unload them, as there are no buyers. and no one is even considering the 7-figure white elephants whose development cycle started in 2000.

 

all in all, a sad ending for what was a pretty amazing place to be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

austin in the dumpstahhh??? u must b kiddin'

 

headzUP, all yew CYCLE boyz ('n gurlzzzz):

 

ALLEGEDLY, a MAJOR? Bradley Turn JUST occurred 38 minutes ago!!!

 

 

we'll c.... LOL

 

 

Merci hASS it summed up nicely, thinx The BARE.

 

Too many a wishin' and a hopin' for a year end jamjob. FUR too many.

 

Over at Crystal Ball, FUR ex., a day or two ago, the CONSENSUS TRENDWATCH FURcast was green ass FUR ass the eye could c.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

bare, to my knowledge there are no major bradley turns slated for late december, although if you tweak the variables enough you probably could conjure up something. that said, there is a slight plateau or bump interrupting the downslide, and it starts right around now and runs for a couple weeks (until 10 jan, according to one version).

 

and re austin, it's not like all the longhorns are rolling around clutching their throats....just that the town has been so hollowed out. not much marrow left.

 

....and all that aside, want to say happy holidays to everyone. it's been a privilege and a huge education to share the stool with such knowledgable and articulate folks. and thanks doc, for all your work, and especially for the anals.

 

so, again, happy holidays. wishing you all great abundance and a very firm, regular New Stool in 2003.

 

phat

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, this was one of the best ever! Definitely the best place to meet the hotties is at the perfume counter asking "duh" questions. All of a sudden that " I want to bag you" smell goes away and all the supermodels want to help you.

Now, if you could just learn how to cry!

I am even learning how to deal with your Italian slams (Grasso looks like he would run from a 3 year-old girl. You could use a better analogy) although, I don't know if mi familia is quite ready yet.

 

Phat, what are the mansions going for in Austin these days? I could use a new place, Austin is nice.

 

Merc (sounds better than Merci, alot of my old SEAL buddies became Merc's), I think I will join ya on the SYMC puts.

Good Luck everyone! :wink2:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it is just me or is Maria Bartarimo's hair style

acquiring a JOE DIRT look?

 

Mark keeps saying she has spectacular breasts.

If this is true- can she please make them a bit more

obvious so that I can tune-out her screaching. Either

that or bring back Emma.

 

Vesselin's posts last night were excellent - as usual.

If I understand correctly they highlight how RSI is

a good tool for identifying short term tops.

Which is keeping me out of gold.

 

Does anyone know of any stock screener that

can help identify stocks with a 14 day RSI

above 70?

 

Looking to short some stocks into year end fiddle.

AMGN and C look interesting.

 

Merciless that link had an interesting piece on IBM

 

http://www.apolloresearch.com/archives.htm

 

IBM is truly a piece of crap.

 

Merry Christmas to all Stoolies. I hope everyone

has a happy and safe holiday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The heat wave continueth here only now we surrounded by bushfires as well...

 

My ISP crashed in a big way yesterday (cable melted?) so I missed addressing a few posts ...

 

Buttugly, what was the Chicago shoe shine scam?

 

Oldevai: Santos & Woodside the main oils listed here but the charts are neutral. I agree there are some fundamental positives for oil but DA BOYZ ain't buying so I'm loathe to get involved..

 

Doc: you dropped a couple of hints re using other forums/threads but I have to say one of the things I like about M2M is that it is a single thread. Like being in a room full of people and carrying on several conversations at once. Can cover a lot of ground without too much messing around.

 

The market today similar to yesterday only worse. Wide spreads developing for some of the less liquid stocks and volume is pitiful. Christmas has already started for most people I'm thinking. Golds are looking good, one more pop and I'll close out my gold call..

 

Sheesh the DOW did a bit of a sag last session hey? Writing on the wall methinks. Ed from Signalwatch leaning towards the bear as well...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...