PileDriver Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 ...as long as McClellan Summation and bullish pct keep heading south after that massive weekly reversal engulfing candle froth top was formed on Dec 2 then this market will continue to crater. That top also left behind a nice bearish island reversal. How soon we forget these bearish facts. http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$BPOEX Green days are short lived B.S. events and should be shorted into HEAVILY. My last warning to all: Short now while its calm cuz when it blows there will be no chasing after it. Its going to move fast. Once again, DO NOT short PIXAR, you will get your ass handed to you on a silver platter. Its going higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardStoolGuy Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 MU report From CBS: Micron Technology (MU: news, chart, profile) reported a first-quarter loss of $315.9 million, or 52 cents a share, on revenue of $685.1 million. anal cysts were looking for a loss of 23 cents a share on revenue of $809.4 million. Shares fell more than a dollar from their close at $13.28 after the bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest soup1 Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 mu going thru w/ an 11 handle. Good point Rog, trying to decipher those numbers will be virtually impossible. Which of coures begs the question, why the lack of transparency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 Now things are being spun in the reverse direction. The effect of debt deflation which is invisible right? It is invisible or is it? Deflation has the effect of running things backwards... Slowing down time... The "numbers are all that matter all the "money" or debt being created is being used to manipulate the numbers. Wall Street is burning it up at a sickening rate hyper inflation is being vaporised to get us here and lower is where we are headed... And Debt deflation is no where to be seen? Why? because the "powers that be" constructed it that way. But don't worry the only end to this scam is bankruptcy... Deflation will pick up speed, next year the debt deflation will gain speed. Or they are within months of constructing a machine that produces gold out of thin air... There is still the excitement of "wild cornered animal stage" within 18 months, or tomorrow... Fiat systems become weaker the longer they are in operation, weak enough that a door slamming shut is all it takes to finish it in the end. hard to believe I know... That is where we are, at the end of the line... they are milking it now and have been for decades, it's run dry and canibalism is taking hold... 2003 is going to be the emergency... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 SPY is snugly below monthly and weekly fib support. QQQ doing a Wile Coyote levitation maneuver. NYSE summation index flashing a neat sell. Nasty is well on its way into the sewer....despite appearances. The concrete enema is about to be disimpacted. Powerfully short...and waiting to add more, as the trend unfolds. I'm going surfing....followed by exotica; thanks for the reminder, Mark :grin: Buddha, I remember when you were still asking questions about moving averages...over at Clearstation...in 2000. You have come one helluva long way in this Kodiak. The markets have turned you into a phenomenal author, too. Cudoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 MU numbers don't add up. DDR units were flat limited by supply. SDRAM units were down due to rotation into DDR and ASPs for both were down. Yet revenues were up? That's a neat trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShamPoo Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 Great work Mark. Having something to look forward to in your evening is always energizing. Someday it is going to be different. One of these times, possibly tomorrow, Al will hold out his pockets to show that there is nothing left. Al is no different from and certainly no better than the CEOs of WorldCom or Enron or global Crossing. Al, like the CEOs, knows that one must maintain a cheerful posture while the ship is sinking. He knows that no hint of fear can be detected. Oh really, we are $8 billion in the hole, I had no idea, what a surprise. One day it will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest london Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 back into the community..... sorry to have been away for so long. really missed the group. read m2m yesterday, and back-read the previous couple days at the same time, but unfortunately couldn't post because was wall2wall with commercial stuff on the day job. market sure has been annoying the past month or so. recent action has been more reflective of reality, but there's still a long way to go I think. a few observations from London-- 1. corporates still aren't buying new product. budgets are very tight. Q4 outcome will start to become visible in a couple weeks, but everyone in corporate land that I can see or talk to is still waiting for confirmation that the post Oct rally has economic support. so far nobody is betting a doghouse, let alone the ranch, on recovery. 2. tech land is lousy and shows no sign of recovery. except for Hutch 3G everyone is bearish on 3G phone service launch dates. lotsa promises but very little delivery. this means the telco capex cycle is still down or at best trough; no upturn yet. I've heard some very amusing stories about Fortune 500 companies holding on to PCs which still run Windows 95. right, that's not a typo, that's Win 95. the point is that the product works (sort of) and the upgrade to Win XP is just not worth the cost, they think. imagine F500 companies still running 6-7 yr old software. now that's a tech recession. 3. real estate prices in London are rolling over. it's front page news in all the papers. this is a market where a house that cost 400k in '93 is now selling for 1.8m. nice work if you can get it, but the property futures market (they have that here) shows a 10% or greater decline by end Q1 03. the tabloids are running stories on 30% declines. OK, that's sensationalism (today) but the effect on consumer spending, when the decline comes, is unbelievably negative. the US dynamic is basically the same I expect. 4. personal debt (eg credit cards) continues to rise rapidly. personal bankruptcies rise in parallel. this story and the 3. story you can read in any US paper. but the result is very ugly as the wave strengthens...... 5. LIES indicator continues to trend down. (LIES is London Index of Employment Sentiment. the defn is #people looking for a fulfilling job divided by # of people looking for any job. in a bull mkt LIES is maybe 95%; in a bear mkt LIES is maybe 10%. my estimate today is 80% and falling, except that in tech the indicator is 50% and falling). some of the tech companies I work with are hiring high quality execs for $3k equivalent on 2 week projects because 'he has a cash flow problem'. these are guys who had $250k jobs 18 months ago. that's right, hire a guy for a $75k run rate on a project basis because he needs the money to pay the rent. I feel for the individual, but on a macro level this guy is not buying an SUV, or vacationing in a villa at the beach, or loading up the shopping cart at Xmas. so, stay bearish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest london Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 btw, really happy to read Mark again. always a lot of insight, mixed with fun. or vice versa. personal portfolio update -- haven't touched it for a few weeks. still have puts on GE, IBM, C, ABK. also, REALLY ANNOYED BY THIS ONE, HI. but I'm holding the HI at a 40% loss just to see what happens. overall I'm down about 20% on the portfolio peak value, but still have >65% of base value in cash (and more on a mkt to mkt basis of course), and the current trend is toward recovery of the position. for those who remember my personal rules, this is OK. of course I'm not happy with the m2m at the moment, but if you can't stand the heat ..... the puts are leap 04s so I have lotsa time to recover. a significant part of the loss is due to volatility declines, so I expect that to recover without too much trouble because the puts were purchased in the VIX mid 30s. most of the rest is delta rather than theta, so overall it feels like losses due to a bear mkt rally and nothing more... to salvage my ego somewhat, I should report that the work on the day job recently has produced a m2m which shows a VERY positive trend. if the momentum on the day job continues then the payoff will be much bigger than the loss to date. and of course I expect the trading acct to recover in Q1 03 (doubters needn't post, why argue about timing?) all of the above is basically a statement that in stooltown honesty is more important than painting a nice picture to keep up appearances. so, I'm down and I'm telling anyone who's interested. when I'm up, I'll tell everyone that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest london Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 finally, to b4-- thx for your recent enquiry(ies) on the board about my health [or continued existence!]. like the man said, rumors of my recent demise.... gotta go now, it's 12.30 am in foggy London town. will check the board in the am here stay bearish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 London, Nice to see you back! LIES. It's an acronym but, what a perfect name for an employment indicator. Bring a martini next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 hey london, welcome back. you were missed. was in your namesake town 2-3 wks ago, that real estate business was splashed all over the papers. the '30%' figure seemed to appear a disproportionate amount of the time, too....never 20% or 25% (or, uh, 23.6%, or 38.2%).....always 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torah man Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 welcome back london. nasdaq and anything tech getting bloodied in after hours. was busy yesterday, but before the market opened, i put an order to sell covered calls on my hmy. sold the jan 15 for 2.50, and i feel great. i expect to be holding the stock at the end of jan ready for the next ramp up. other than that, still holding spx and qqq puts. klac down 64 cents after hours in the blood bath. so those puts are recovering from yesterdays action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasyAl Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 How Uncle Al is going to make the Bull Charging again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest london Posted December 18, 2002 Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 phat-- the 30% number is nice and round. like a support/resistance level at a 1000 mkt level. but the dynamic is independent of the headline number. the flaky part of the London mkt, to an American, is that most mortgages are floating rate. so you get immediate benefit from a rate decline, across the mkt, even without a refi wave. but equally when rates rise everyone gets whacked. note the difference between England and the US. in the US if rates rise then nobody can buy your house at the price you paid. but at least you can still live there (assuming you have a job and can pay the mortgage) because you have a fixed rate mortgage. in England, not only can you not sell the house to a new buyer but also you can't afford to live there yourself (because your mortage payments just spiked when rates spiked). so YOU HAVE TO SELL AT A LOSS. that's why the story is so big over here. of course in Germany they're not writing about house prices but about deflation and stock mkt collapse and negative job creation. just like in the 20's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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