More Spinning

[sweefraapp]

Looks like some upside possibility on this weekly.

[brian4]

Well guys a prediction-After today I would say we go down fast and hard-Lightening touched on it in his comments about market action. The Dow went to it's high of the day all by itself-SPX and NAZ-sat there that kind of non confirmation combined with the slide into the close and more down than up volume has been the kiss of death on all rallies in the last year. The print highs for this so called rally were 9043 and 954 on Dec.2 it is now 9 days later 500 points lower in the dow and 50 points lower in the SPX-this thing has been grinding around going nowhere and looks like an old whore after a long day. It's done, cooked! The volume keeps falling and falling and without volume Da Boyz can ram and jam all they want trying to stay one step ahead of that giant sucking sound they keep hearing called tax selling which is due any day now. This morning Procto vision had Pappa Bear on Squawk-Doug Kass- and he was SO GOOOOD-that Mr. Smarmy Faber labeled him as DR DOOM within his first 10 minutes. They had the CFO of Toll Bros. on and Kass says to the guy in the interest of disclosure "I'm short your stock" and then reduced him to quivering jello. I'd be surprised if they had Doug back. Butt-re Japan-when their real estate bubble got so hot that average homes (under 800 sq ft in Japan) were selling for a million bucks-the banks instituted 100 year mortgages called inter generational where you paid till you croaked and then your kids paid until it was paid off. Now the banks in Japan are holding trillions of dollars in mortgages and the homes they hold them on are worth 300-400,000. You think they want to foreclose?? I can hardly wait till 100 year mortgages hit these shores. Stay short and Trade Safe! IT IS OVER!

[GTNWORSE]

Hey Guys,

 

Thanks for the great commentary Mark.

Well Larry Katz has painted a rather ugly picture for the bulls at: http://www.marketsummaryandforecast.com/de...ision_point.htm

Just sitting on my wallet and watching the drama unfold.

I was wondering if the real estate market was going to continue to climb the same "wall of worry" that the stock market did. Remember that bubble didn't burst until virtually everyone had become convinced of the "new economy" and that there was no limit to how high the market could go!

With John Q sick of stocks, rates at historic lows, tax free gains on sales, and the only interest write off left, what is going to burst the bubble. And I didn't mention that you get to live in your investment too.

 

Would love some rational feedback.

[Goldmember]

With some key numbers out tomorrow I used the late afternoon spuke [sp: spike? nah, spuke almost seems appropriate!] to buy some Queerlogic and and KLaxative puts. Mr. Market was kind enough for a post 2:30 rush to the Feedbag to rise up and into some cheap limit orders I had ready for a fill on the expected rise. Thank You Mr. Greenie and Mr. Market for obliging me.

 

Confidence for me today mostly arose from knowing a good deal of temporary Feed was out there on a no real news day. I also thought I would let the 8-13 day cycle get up a bit, today being that cycles last chance for a pop before tomorrow's overpowering effect of longer period [4-7 and 10-13 week] cycles taking over the reins. These longer cycles are in a nice decline, should anyone pony up $20 for a three month trial and see for themselves, hint, hint, wink, wink! That's is how I see it anyway. No, I have not yet read tonight's Anals, though I eagerly await them! I have been trying to SEE how these various length cycles work within each other. Still lots to learn! The early death of the 8-13 day cycle up phase will be precipitated by the psychological effect of tomorrow morning's TERRIBLE sentiment and economic news, the clincher being the current account deficit. 8:30 am NY time, an hour before the market opens. Japan just released a higher current account SURPLUS, based on increased Asian trade. The U.S. however will post a WIDENING current account DEFICIT. See Mark's post at the start of this thread. Throw in a Michigan number and yadda, yadda, yadda, yadda, and well, I got my position today CHEAP!

 

I must also confess that Simple Guy played a reasonably significant role in my decision process today. I basically applied his reasoning to what I see the cycles doing and throw in some coincidental news fluff and it ALL FIT!!! Big Al's Feed merely made for a nice afternoon entry point!

 

SLAM THIS PIG!

 

 

Merciless, you is gonna need one of these ultra cool Barbeque aprons:

 

 

 

 

or one of these for waiting for the pigs on the SUPERSIZE titanium spit to roast. Pork should be well cooked after all!

 

 

 

These and other practical and hilarious goodies are available here :grin:

[ShamPoo]

Thank you Mark

What a bunch of conspiracy nuts. Who really knows what conventional or unconventional means are being used to manipulate the markets. Possibly there is no manipulation. Possibly markets just act like this. Possibly Lee Harvey Oswald did act alone.

Mr. getting worse. Glad you paid up for the subscription. On an intraday bases, you'll find it pays for itself in about an hour. The rest of the month is free.

The rally continues. Or does it? My wag is that it won't wait till next year to collapse. Whenever the stool does hit the fan, it's going to sour people not only to the stock market, but to the current government as well. Fear and greed, fear and greed. The government is using fear to satisfy its greed. The Federal Reserve is using greed to satisfy its fear. Possibly they will balance each other out and walk happily hand-in-hand down the path of peace and prosperity for all time. Possibly Dock will wake up tomorrow and find that he has become a super bull. Hallelujah.

[brian4]

GTN- On real estate why would you or anyone want to buy a property at the top of the market??? Prices in some areas are rolling over but they are still close to an alltime high? Wait for a year to 18 months and then take your pick for super cheap as the banks firesale all the foreclosures they will have coming out of their ears. Also although prices are still high-Wolf man in Denver posted here recently-house aren't selling period. Ditto said a posting in Portland-ditto said a posting in Seattle! Buy a 490 Jan.put on the oex and sit-you'll make some dough and since you are deep in the money-you will sleep well. Take care-Trade Safe! p.s. 18 months and I will buying real estate!

[midnite lightning]

Tchaikof,

 

All the volume on miss piggy was selling not buying. This happened an hour before the release. Da boyz know this stuff ahead of time. If it was that great they wouldn?t have sold 6-7 million shares in 10-minutes. Miss piggy never sees this kind of action after the bell. I checked the volume now that the dust settled and they only show 3.9mil. Just as I suspected, da boyz are at work and hiding their actions. Confidence will never be restored with these kinds of games.

 

Looks to me this thing is cooked. I will be surprised if this market moves any higher.

 

Be careful.

 

CYA

[Guest The CoinGuy]

Cash-Strapped States turn to Derivatives for Help

 

snippit:

 

"Governmental issuers are saying, 'we are looking for any way to save money that we can. We're laying off cops, we're closing schools, we're cutting back library hours -- now it's time to get the last ounce of value out of our debt portfolio,'" said Matthew Roggenburg, a derivatives banker with JPMorgan in New York.

 

 

Comment: Many times in my life, I've said to myself, "I've seen it all now". This is one of those times...until next week I suppose .

 

I've seen many comments on here about going short, I went home flat Monday night, and I'm waiting for 1425 on the comp, and 923-925 on the spx until I put any positions on. I'm coming to the end of my best year, Thanks to the Docster, and I'm not giving it away easily. Of course if we surpass these levels, I may ease into positions in small increments. Just want to be careful here, with year end. Will take a serious look at the market over the holidays, and readjust my position as needed. Overall bearish as hell on the equities, the dollar and the bond, bullish on unhedged miners, physical gold, and the 20oz Porterhouse, I'm heading off to choke down.

 

I like mine with the horns attached please ,

 

 

The CoinGuy

[Guest]

Hey guys, where's all the red gone your end? We've had some healthy downside here past few trading days and you're still producing indice green!

 

Having said that we're having a limp green one today, expected since the indicators have gone into short term Dover Sole.

 

I've got 2 puts back in the money, 1 to go..and a gold call that's still out of the money..

 

Interesting re the 100 yr mortgages in Japan, B4. Spose the main problem would be that one couldn't sell without coming up with the original overvalued market value capital to dispatch mortgage. Means staying a lifetime in one place..No doubt there's a way of getting around it..

[bubbadropping]

Brian, whats your opinion about all the refinancing schemes blaring out over the a.m. radios? Would you refinance a home thats in a variable rate now and lock in a lower rate? I'm curious. I know very little about real estate. Comments? thanks, buddhadropping ; I apologize to Drano for slandering Donald Duck with the reference this morning, a moment of temporary insanity.

[Guest]

Tchaikof,

 

All the volume on miss piggy was selling not buying. This happened an hour before the release. Da boyz know this stuff ahead of time. If it was that great they wouldn?t have sold 6-7 million shares in 10-minutes. Miss piggy never sees this kind of action after the bell. I checked the volume now that the dust settled and they only show 3.9mil. Just as I suspected, da boyz are at work and hiding their actions. Confidence will never be restored with these kinds of games.

 

Looks to me this thing is cooked. I will be surprised if this market moves any higher.

 

Be careful.

 

CYA

Well, if they are selling into or on the good news, what does that tell you? It tells me that they either know or are anticipating taking the whole market down soon. They've been buying the bad news and now it is time for the flip.

[torah man]

well, at the drop this morning i closed my klac put for 75% and sold my bgo for 22%.

 

i rounded out my hmy contracts, they had paid me my dividend in stock, what are you to do with 19.66 shares, except to buy 81 more. i got them at 14.55 and it closed at 15.15. i will be selling some covered calls thursday or friday on the drop in market (rise in gold) this will be the fourth go around for my hmy shares.

 

i opened a different klac put at the afternoon high and expect this one to continue the drop.

 

still holding my spx and qqq puts for the next drop.

[DogBoy]

The state and local gubmint situation is astounding and it's almost everywhere too.

 

That combined with personal and corporate debt and War should produce a doozy of a year in 2003.

 

DogBoy proclaims 2003 the YEAR OF DA BEAR !!!

 

And he'll be a big bad grizzly too.

 

Back up the truck and load up your PUTz.

[PileDriver]

OEX100 bullish pct dropped again today. Market gain today was purely superficial. LOB.

 

2003 will make 2000-2002 look like a picnic and make all the hopers say: "Damn, why didn't I sell when I had the chance".

 

PANIC NOW, AVOID THE RUSH!!!

[DogBoy]

"Interesting re the 100 yr mortgages in Japan"

 

And what if you hit a 500 year or Millenial Super Bear Market ?

 

You still don't get your money back even in a 100 years.

 

"Would you refinance a home thats in a variable rate now "

 

I'd be shittin bricks (big ones) if I had a variable rate loan and would refi to a fixed rate no matter what it cost. You'd best be runnin' full speed to the mortgage company before it's to late.

 

Rates are in a 40 year bottoming process with no where to go but up.

 

1982 was a good time to get a variable rate loan, certainly not in 2002.

 

And by the way almost all credit cards are variable rate (offset to the prime rate). Read your cardholders agreement.

 

What do you think is going to happen to people with large credit card debts when rates start zooming ? How long do you think they'll be able to stand 20% or more rates on cards ? And that's for people with impeccable credit. As for the rest their already screwed and tatooed.

 

And even worse what do you think is going to happen to the economy when people start using every spare penny they've got to pay down cards instead of buyin mo junk ?

 

The battle over interest rates is the Mother of all Financial Battles.

 

And what do you think will cause higher rates no matter what the FEED does ?

 

How about War and massive gubmint borrowing ?

 

How about a huge and costly foreign policy failure ?

 

The long term trends are screaming that the coming War will not be a good one for the US.

 

Ignore them at your peril.