Jetlag Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Read it here http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/a...rope/Page1.html 698487[/snapback] " In fact the actions of the Federal Reserve & Treasury are nothing short of stupid and that is sugar coating my words." Word. "As I?ve been saying on this show for a year the fundamental reason for this crisis are exactly the same as 1929, exactly the same. Securitization of debt occurred in the late 1920s exactly as it occurred in this decade-exactly." I heard this time was bigger, even adjusting for inflation perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lemur Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Long S&P 500 from 879 here. Stop at breakeven. Going to keep her and hope she runs. Off out now soon to get some lunch and take some cash out of the bank. Hope we don't see an 'Iceland' here soon. Its a possibility for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Adams Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Chicago Bear: "As I boil this down, it seems like the smartest move is to sell the stock and pray that they save the financial system. Would anybody disagree? Why?" I think the solution to your problem requires a macro answer rather than a tear down and analysis of the oft discussed and well understood components of this problem. Even though the Swiss have sold off half of their gold they still have greater backing than any other currency. Although there was a national referendum on the sale of gold holdings, I believe this was driven more by the problem that a gold backed currency presented in pulling down the pants of all the other paper money more than anything else. I was trading CHF back when it was .53. This wasn't that long ago. The Swiss Franc has almost doubled in relation to the dollar. My point here is even though CHF has been monkeyed with and diluted, it is the closest thing you are going to find in terms of a gold backed currency. I see the Swiss Franc as the ultimate defensive currency hedge. Not talking about generating income or timing the FX market here, just protecting what you have. There is also huge upside potential. If currencies and banks starts collapsing which currency would you rather be holding? Switzerland IS a banking economy and I think they will emerge from the ashes of this insanity either at or near the top. Only to the level of their gold backing. Sam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbear Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Long S&P 500 from 879 here. Stop at breakeven. Going to keep her and hope she runs. Off out now soon to get some lunch and take some cash out of the bank. Hope we don't see an 'Iceland' here soon. Its a possibility for sure. 698494[/snapback] Is that on the SPOT or Dec Forwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Adams Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 oops. Left out a sentence that made the last sentence incomplete. It should have read: How much can the value of CHF drop? Only to the level of their gold backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lemur Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Is that on the SPOT or Dec Forwards? 698498[/snapback] Spot price on IG markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Switzerland IS a banking economy and I think they will emerge from the ashes of this insanity either at or near the top. Only to the level of their gold backing. Sam 698497[/snapback] What's the weight of the finanglers on their economy? I don't see offshore countries getting much love when the taxpayers are going to be bled dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lemur Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Chicago Bear: "As I boil this down, it seems like the smartest move is to sell the stock and pray that they save the financial system. Would anybody disagree? Why?" I think the solution to your problem requires a macro answer rather than a tear down and analysis of the oft discussed and well understood components of this problem. Even though the Swiss have sold off half of their gold they still have greater backing than any other currency. Although there was a national referendum on the sale of gold holdings, I believe this was driven more by the problem that a gold backed currency presented in pulling down the pants of all the other paper money more than anything else. I was trading CHF back when it was .53. This wasn't that long ago. The Swiss Franc has almost doubled in relation to the dollar. My point here is even though CHF has been monkeyed with and diluted, it is the closest thing you are going to find in terms of a gold backed currency. I see the Swiss Franc as the ultimate defensive currency hedge. Not talking about generating income or timing the FX market here, just protecting what you have. There is also huge upside potential. If currencies and banks starts collapsing which currency would you rather be holding? Switzerland IS a banking economy and I think they will emerge from the ashes of this insanity either at or near the top. Only to the level of their gold backing. Sam 698497[/snapback] Better off buying bullion. Didn't the Swiss devalue the currency by 45% in 1972 (not sure of the details) when the franc soared to the point it really hurt their economy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Adams Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Actions in the futures suggests to me that the central driving policy of the Treasury and the Fed is "pain avoidance". They are applying drugs to the patient as his vital signs collapse. I don't see a tradeable bounce except for hair trigger scalpers. We are on the express train to hell. "Have a nice day!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Long S&P 500 from 879 here. Stop at breakeven. Going to keep her and hope she runs. Off out now soon to get some lunch and take some cash out of the bank. Hope we don't see an 'Iceland' here soon. Its a possibility for sure. 698494[/snapback] I'm long YM at 8303 real early this morning. Stop at 8240 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Adams Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Better off buying bullion. Didn't the Swiss devalue the currency by 45% in 1972 (not sure of the details) when the franc soared to the point it really hurt their economy? 698503[/snapback] I believe they were forced to do so. CHF would have been trading at parity with gold if it's backing was not diluted. Not selling off reserves flies in the face of fiat currency orthodoxy. If they hadn't diluted it would have been the equivalent of declaring war on the dollar. Everyone has seen what happens to countries and leaders who attempt to pull down Uncle Sam's pants and spank his bony ass. These lessons have not been lost upon our trading "partners". Switzerland is not an island. They also have trading partners. If their currency increased too much it would have destroyed ALL of their exports. A few days ago they publicly announced that they had ceased all central bank sale of gold to the physical market. I think they played along with G12 just to be allowed to attend the tea party. Now that everyone is puking up the rotten cookies and moldy tea I think the Swiss will no longer be forced to play by dollar rules. I am flying to Geneva next Friday and I will be very interested to see if they are also expereincing the same tightness in the physical markets. Last time I was there you could walk into any bank and buy 20F Helvetias no problemo. I will give you a report on what I find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pacific Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Guys, I have a question. Someone mentioned the possibility to pick-up (later, not now, I guess) closed-end ETFs with deep discount to NAV. Any specific names you've researched and have vivid interest? 698424[/snapback] Trying desperately not to buy AWP this AM!! Fund Quick Facts As of 10/09/2008 Closing NAV: $5.61 Current Distribution Rate: 38.30% Closing Share Price: $3.97 Premium/(Discount): -29.23% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Sam, In trying to think through the next sequence of events if the dollar collapses (really, if all fiats collapse), I was imagining that the US (all countries) might be forced to back the dollar with its gold reserves in addition to GDP. I could not imagine oil exporters selling their oil for fiat unless there was a tangible, valuable asset backing it. The US still has the largest gold reserves in the world, and still has the highest GDP. (GDP + Gold) / money supply = currency value? Whether or not this happens is pure speculation on my part, but I'm guessing it would be the most probable scenario. I really don?t know much about foreign currencies, but I?ll ask my advisor about it. Diversification at a time like this is probably smart. Thank you for the thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Trader Joe "Quote of the Day" ....from a guest on CNBS this AM "The market will have to stop going down at some point, we can only have 12 more days like yesterday and the Dow will be at zero" ...friggin' hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Guys, I have a question. Someone mentioned the possibility to pick-up (later, not now, I guess) closed-end ETFs with deep discount to NAV. Any specific names you've researched and have vivid interest? 698424[/snapback] JPC AOD PSY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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