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vesselin- It wan't intuition alone. It was primarily the fact that all of the cmaps up to 8 day cycle were hit. That's empirical, and gave me confidence that at worst the upside would be limited. That to me is a low risk entry. But it has to be done with stops, just in case the bigger waves really are turning. Then they'll begin to blow through the cmaps and the resistance levels I drew earlier. If they take out the highs, I'm out immediately with a small loss.

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doc & VB: the intuition vs calculation is a wicked topic, i've been waiting for someone to bring it up. btw, left brain=calculation, right=intuition. i will never trade against my gut (knowingly). every time i've done so (knowingly) i've gotten slaughtered. the trick, of course, is to be able to know what it's saying. :mellow:

 

btw doc.....who, exactly, is IN the Gang of 22? sorry if that's dumb but i haven't been able to turn up the right thread or whatever. thx.

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http://www.newyorkfed.org/pihome/fedpoint/fed02.html

 

Ladies and Gentlemen- May I present to you, The Gang of 22 SOUND!

 

ABN AMRO Bank, N.V., New York Branch

BNP Paribas Securities Corp.

Banc of America Securities LLC

Banc One Capital Markets, Inc.

Barclays Capital Inc.

Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc.

CIBC World Markets Corp.

Credit Suisse First Boston Corporation

Daiwa Securities America Inc.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Securities LLC.

Goldman, Sachs & Co.

Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

J. P. Morgan Securities, Inc.

Lehman Brothers Inc.

Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc.

Mizuho Securities USA Inc.

Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated

Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Salomon Smith Barney Inc.

UBS Warburg LLC.

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Gang of 22.

 

My boss trades almost exclusively on intuition - and very successfully, too. Occasionally he asks my opinion as a technician - as in "isn't it time to sell this issue?" or "does that look like a good buy?" - and almost every time he has nailed almost the exact top or bottom. Amazing.

 

Wouldn't buy gold (or oil, for that matter), though. Says it's "too political" for him.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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Notice the congestion around the 903 line, If it breaks down then I would think a move down into the next range.And it may have some difficulty at that line, If price wants to move back up later.

 

Also price is consolidating at the lower part of the range.Which would give odds/guess to down.....

 

You can see the ranges, in this timeframe on this chart, other charts and time frames differ...

 

That is probably why Rockhead hammers on timeframes... and I agree. Hone in on the time frame that one is trading in. Fiddle around in everything else to see the expanded view.

post-3-1041617401.gif

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Notice the congestion around the 903 line, If it breaks down then I would think a move down into the next range.And it may have some difficulty at that line, If price wants to move back up later.

 

Also price is consolidating at the lower part of the range.Which would give odds/guess to down.....

 

You can see the ranges, in this timeframe on this chart, other charts and time frames differ...

 

That is probably why Rockhead hammers on timeframes... and I agree. Hone in on the time frame that one is trading in. Fiddle around in everything else to see the expanded view.

Sniff....that was beautiful...you brought tears to my eyes! :cry:

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