Pee Brain Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Probably the best job on the planet until there is no way to further increase state and local taxes. ?Then the cutbacks will begin when the RE bubble starts to impode. Oh there is always a way. That's what will cause California to be the deepest into the depression they will repeal Prop 13. as PD might say: "leave now and avoid the rush" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Alceringa-interesting point-An E waver of note followed by the END and i noted that the run up was the most abnormal wave he had ever seen. Is that surprising with wave 3 down looming??? Irrational exuberance by every measure is higher now than at the top, sentiment higher than just before the 87 CRASH-for a wave 3 everyone has to be onboard and they are. What now pussycat? ooh oh ohoooo! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gruff Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 As this weekly S&P 500 chart clearly shows, there is no "3rd week down" (however, there is a 10th week high). What is evident is that a retrace to the asc trendline through 9-Mar and 18-May lows has occurred. Will the asc trendline hold? Next week's close will reveal all Keep an eye on the last two lows (972.59 and 963.59) for clues. Edit: oh, also keep an eye on the last two highs! success! gruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 from stockmarkettimer.com Not to be outdone, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey released this week showed 71% bulls and just 9% bears. The bullish ratio of 89% is the second highest reading in the history of the survey going back to 1987. The highest bullish ratio reading ever recorded by this group was 92%. That occurred at the market top in August of 1987, which then led to the infamous "crash of '87". With sentiment running at extreme optimism, valuations back to bubble levels and Commercial Hedgers shifting dramatically to the short side, the picture is starting to look pretty risky for Larry Kudlow, Jim Cramer and the rest of the perma-bulls. We saw a huge shift in the net positions of futures traders this past week following contract expiration last Friday. Commercial Hedgers are now heavily net short in both the S&P's and the Nasdaq, while Small Traders, the so-called "weak hands", are now heavily net long in both contracts. This is a radical one-week turn around and has decidedly negative implications for stocks over the intermediate term. Commercials typically "lead" the market by 1-3 weeks, so if they are right this time, we could see the market decline in earnest anytime soon. If we do get a bounce on Monday, we don't expect much of a rally. The weekly trend has turned back down (lower highs and lower lows) and market internals are weakening. If you are short already, no worries...this week's ST rally will be over quickly If you are looking to get short, no worries...this rally is a gift. If you are long, I'd be worried, very very worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Just watched Part II of "The Money Masters" linked by dmckin on Hyper's forum. Conclusion; Don't wish for a gold standard. International banks hold 90% of the world's gold. I assume this means they let it fly when they are good and ready . Butter - can you post a link to moneymasters part 2 for me? I can't find it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 It's true, as you say, that "on the books" the CB's have 90% of the gold. However, the more important statistic, as put forth by the excellent work by Frank Vennaroso, is "how much is actually in the vaults"?Turns out there is a pretty good chance that anywhere from 25% to 50% of the book amount has been leased to the open market, never to return. It's dowry, baubbles, bracelets, pandas, and all sorts of things, but what it is NOT is bars within a CB vault. Gold is the only investment I have which I am sure has a zero chance of turning into a big fat zero. consider the gold carry trade - FED leases gold for 1% a year, lessee (maybe like JPM)sells gold that they have just leased (short sale) and invests proceeds in bonds at 3.5% to 4% and collects spread and then when FED drives bond prices higher (lowers yield), JPM also collects cap gains. everything works fine: the FED essentially lowered gold price, lessee makes big-time, low-risk dough, demand for bonds is energized, etc ... last i heard though, the swiss wanted a good chunk of their gold outta our vault - i wonder if its still there? higher gold prices, of course, will kill the lessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roidrage Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 PS. I want to be a turdle. Wish I had thought of that!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supercolonblow Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Calif. Near Financial Disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 On the other handed, democracies have survived until the public realized that they can "vote themselves the national treasury". The United States is supposed to be a Republic, but we largely ignore the Constitution and instead act as a democracy complete with paper money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 This is where we put on our short the rallies hat and take off our buy the dips hat. The times, they are a changing. <---- This guy fell for it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted June 30, 2003 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Will be interesting to see what Miracle Rabbit they pull out tomorrow to avoid the California budget disaster....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 from feargreed.com The unintended consequences caused by the cut of one-quarter point in Fed Funds last week, driving the yield on the 10 yr. Note to 3.542% (which must have caught the Fed totally by surprise) -- is almost one half point higher in a few weeks - will, at the margin, slowdown the purchasing of equities by the asset allocators. This should throw off the robots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 The jig is up, batten down the hatches ....fireworks this year are going to be a sight to behold..they may just last to halloween. Cant wait to see Creamer and Dudlow eating crow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Check out the Members and Specialists as of 6/20. Impeccable timing. http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgPro/charts/CSPCSRT.HTM Yeah, they're looking for a rally - NOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 When they return will they be called The California Raisins? You, obviously, majored in philosophy... Native Washingtonians can't STAND 'em. Call 'em CaliFORNi....OOOPS!!! Butt (_)_) HRFF is an arriviste hisself. So he ain't throwin' no stones... In Seattle u r what you DRIVE, it seems. Just like LALA land. On Sat HRFF wandered across the street to git hisself a mint julep or two and sat down beside a black fella FURom Chicago and got to rappin' boud women here vs the Midwest/East. (BARE dated a Chicago gal FUR yearz and yearz, here, and this guy is hitched to one.) The fella observed: "Seattle is California....only with the rain." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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