Madame Wrecked Him Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 anyway, I just had a crazy thought...is this market smelling out a Chinese Yuan revaluation? I know, I know, markets don't do that sort of thing, but I wonder...maybe this bum rush stops when the Yuan gets revalued, maybe sometime in 2004? I guess the logic is that this will somehow wind up being good for the US manufacturing economy, and once it comes to pass, sell the news. If it happens, I could see the media interpreting it as good for US manufacturing, but I can't see how it actually could possibly be positive in reality. Asian labour costs a fraction of US labour, so it would take an unfathomable exchange rate revaluation to make it worthwhile to transfer any meaningful amount of manufacturing back to North America. It's just not going to happen. With US manufacturing an ever-shrinking percentage of the economy, wouldn't it simply mean that the country's dependency on imports becomes a whole lot more expensive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 If it happens, I could see the media interpreting it as good for US manufacturing, but I can't see how it actually could possibly be positive in reality. Asian labour costs a fraction of US labour, so it would take an unfathomable exchange rate revaluation to make it worthwhile to transfer any meaningful amount of manufacturing back to North America. It's just not going to happen. With US manufacturing an ever-shrinking percentage of the economy, wouldn't it simply mean that the country's dependency on imports becomes a whole lot more expensive? MWH - I agree with you on all points. Perhaps the market prefers the twisted J6P type logic, and not the deeper Stoolie-type logic. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 Some more F.Z. You are what you is. Do you know what you are? You are what you is You is what you am (A cow don't make ham...) You ain't what you're not So see what you got You are what you is An' that's all it 'tis A foolish young man From a middle class fam'ly Started singin' the blues 'Cause he thought it was manly Now he talks like the Kingfish ("Saffiiiee!") From Amos 'n Andy ("Holy mack'l dere...Holy mack'l dere!") He tells you that chitlins... Well, they taste just like candy He thinks that he's got De whole thang down From the Nivea Lotion To de Royal Crown Do you know what you are? You are what you is You is what you am (A cow don't make ham...) You ain't what you're not So see what you got You are what you is An' that's all it 'tis A foolish young man Of the Negro Persuasion Devoted his life To become a caucasian He stopped eating pork He stopped eating greens He traded his dashiki ("UHURU!") For some Jordache Jeans He learned to play golf An' he got a good score Now he says to himself ("I AIN'T NO NI--ER NO MORE...HEY! HEY! HEY!") "I don't understand you..." BWANA MA-COO-BAH "Would you please speak more clearly..." MERCEDES BAINNNNNNNZ Who is who (I don't know) 'N what is what (Somethin' I just don't know...) 'N why is this (Tell me now...) Appropriot (That's a funny pronunciation if'n ever I heard one...) If you don't like (Where'd you get that word?) What you has got (Appropriot? The word is not...) Drop it in the dirt (Drop it yeah...) 'N let it rot (I can smell it now...) Someone else (Here de come, here de come...) Will surely come (I told you they was comin') 'N pick it up (That's right!) 'Cause he wants some (An' he wants it for free...) And when one day (There will come a day...) You wonder who (I wonder too...) You used to was (Who I was anyway...) 'N what you do (I used to work at the post office...) You'll scratch your head (But I don't wanna un-do my doo...) 'N look around (Just to see what's goin' on) But what you lost (Can't seem to find it...) Will not be found (A Mercedes Benz...) Do you what you are? (I know...) You are what you is (I'm the kinda guy...) You is what you am (That ought to be drivin' a Mercedes Benz...) A cow don't make a ham (A four-fifty SLC...) You ain't what you're not (A big ol' red one...) So see what you got (With some golf clubs stickin' out de trunk...) You are what you is (I'm gwine down to de links on Saturday mornin'...) An' that's all it is (Gimme a five dollar bill...) YOU ARE WHAT YOU IS (And an overcoat too...) AND THAT'S ALL IT IS (Robbie, take me to Greek Town...) YOU ARE WHAT YOU IS (I'm harder than yer husband; harder than yer husband...) AN THAT'S ALL IT IS (I'm goin' down to White Street, y'all...) YOU ARE WHAT YOU IS (Gone down to the Mudd Club, 'n work the wall...) AN THAT'S ALL IT IS ('N work the floor 'n work the pipe 'N work the wall some more... And here we are at the Mudd Club, Y'all... I hope you enjoy yourself, cause the show's about To begin...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 ...now that's not to say that Mayor Smurfy didn't pull some really dumbass bubble-era financial tricks a few years back that got the Burgh in trouble, however......... howdy mjk. mayor smurfy huh? one headline tonight particularly caught my eye, since it said "experts say dump tech and small-cap stocks". I noticed it's an AP article....might be getting printed all over the country... http://www.ajc.com/business/content/busine...y-Wall-Str.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 MJK, yup, we're living in a good news is good and bad news is also good kind of a world. Where dark clouds once had silver linings, now they are completely shrouded in pms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 Optical Rectitus, Woof, Woof, Woof Here we go Brownie, here we go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 hey hey....steelers rule Opticus ! I love the dog-pound too tho. I don't even know what "worked" is supposed to mean these days. How could borrowing 15 VERY large possibly help in any way? Madame, just to be contrarian tonight , I'll posit that Brazilian debit and misc. junk-bonds ARE indeed "safer" than US stocks right now. In fact, considering that most of us believe the mkt is due to correct shortly, it's probable that GM will retain a few billion in value by being in bonds rather than US stocks. 'course, I wouldn't stay in those bonds for very -long- if I were them... Ya just can't help but wonder why they don't put that pension fund in GOLD for chrissakes! What could possibly be safer, for a retirement fund ?? Unbelievable blindness / preconceived notions. hey...can you imagine some maverick pension-fund manager shifting major % of assets into gold ?? whooo-eeee! what fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 This chart is still on the sell side, butt is trying to freak me out. Didn't Zappa do a freak out song? Another sideways day for me. Covered 2 dongs for a small + and two shorts for a small - . Gold made my day slightly positive, but not much. 4 dongs / 7 crappy shorts / 7 shiny miner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gruff Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 Spoons keep bumping their head on the concrete ceiling-made one futures point on a scalp-the market indexes were virtually untradeable, [snip] still short-stop has hasn't been hit! Trade Safe! Agreed Bri, most of today was untradeable. If it's not a 'secret'... what is yr stop (that hasn't been hit)? cheers! gruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 Here is an interesting chart on the INDU. The comments are computer generated. The last one is interesting. Notice the volume bar. http://stoolcities.capitalstool.com/depend...2%2012%2003.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 Madame love yer stuff. Not to blame things on the matrix buttttttt............... Last year it became apparent that these big companies were technically insolvent due to the scandalous practice of funding their pensions with their own stock instead of actual money. Stock which went down tremendously IBM was another one if I remember correctly.But I bet there are hundreds.And fer sure way too many to have a crisis and bailout situation. The country couldn't have handled it. Sooooooo The problem got re defined Instead of the problem being fraudulent business practices resulting in the hosing of all the employees of all the biggest of americas biggest companies, the problem became low stock prices. Reflate the stock prices and all is well Problem solved I think the powers that be were scared enough of the potential catastrophic consequences of such a breachof the social contract that they did in fact make an all out effort to reflate the markets. In a way it may have been a noble thing to do........if anything was learned in those smokey back rooms where the real action is......and if any plans have been put in place to make sure it doesn't happen again. Unfortunatly I believe that the opposite is true and these fat cats will continue to game their own companies and the futures of all who ever crossed their paths. Thus merely postponing the inevitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 Dozer, that's fair enough, what you wrote, just for argument's sake. However, GM said they believe the bear market was over, with a caveat of course, just in case they're wrong - so they presumably aren't expecting that much of a correction. Diversifying into RE - after the bubble has started deflating. I wonder which rocket scientists are advising them?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 madame, you are right about the RE of course. uhh....mistaken rocket-scientists i'd say ! the bonds tho, that's not a bad idea is it? Amazon might lose 20-40% over next 6 mos. what is probability of Singapore or NZ bond losing that much? of course, the BEST thing to do would be turn that paper BS into CASH....but now I'm dreaming....beg pardon madame. ned, the so-called "medicare" bill was also a direct payout to corpse....to "solve" the pension problem. now, the interesting thing is: what about PERS et al? i.e. big public-trough-feeder pensions. What are -they- going to do about being X billion underwater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soyyo Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 Gee how 'bout this pos market pushing on a string trying to suck the suckers in???/ the only suckers are the fools who are shorting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted December 13, 2003 Report Share Posted December 13, 2003 Ahhh! And I took mucho money off the table on Monday and Tuesday and have felt, well, dirty ever since. Locked in profits, sure, but I betrayed my best judgement. I HAVE to remember: In the metal stocks, buy fear, Sell excitement. So, the most important point of the week bears repeating: GOLD @ 409!!! 409!!! 409! Sweet mother of god, last it was this high the very miners I hold were 2x to 5x HIGHER! And gold was still in a certified bear market. This time, given the inexorable rise off the 2001 lows, it is in the beginnings of a multi-year bull market. So, you tell me. Would you rather hold these very same miners at entire multiples higher during a bear market in the base metals, or at a significant fraction during a bull market? To anyone who can point me towards a single indicator, intermediate-term to long-term, that would suggest even a glimmer of a possibility that gold/silver are NOT in a bull market, I will be forever indebted. But the fact remains. Gold has an unbroken primary channel to the upside going on 2.5 years now. Silver for a shorter time so far but, because of that, with even more upside potential. I bought WHT today because of the HUGE volume on it during this recent breakdown. Why? Because the MACD has not been as reliable on this stock as the RSI. The RSI has been better at predicting the moves on WHT than the MACD, which has been "ok" but kinda sucked by comparison. Anyhoo, I am dirty and sullied for having sold out my shares, but I have come to respect nothing but price action on all my short-term trades. Sell excitement and buy fear, but respect price action. Uh, I was buying lots of WHT at very end of the day cause the price was getting SO CHEAP!! bought some DROOY as well as a currency play that the RAND is over valued!! really think DROOY is sold out and has hit rock bottom... bottom is only $.25 below $2.45 so I see more upside and DROOY is always the come from behind horse for the 5th parabolic wave for the miners... DROOY can be a good sign that the interim finish line of mining rally is close at hand so it's useful to own a little bit just to use it as an inidicator... Look at the last correction in early Nov for the miners and use BGO as an example.. there was a black doji right after the first white candle, very similar to what happened yesterday and today... daclyyay[dc][pb50!c200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La3,6,7]&pref=G]BGO I agree that RSI has been a much better indicator for WHT... it's one of the few juniors where RSI didn't cross below 50 on this correction... IN Contrast, EGO & KGC's RSI line has crossed below 50 and I've let go of any miner that did this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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