Another dawn. But is it another false dawn, this market rally morning?
The ES 24 hour S&P futures have rebounded from the bottom of a downtrend channel. It didn't get as low as very short term cycle projections suggested that it would. Hourly cycle oscillators have shifted to the buy side. And the timing isn't bad in terms of normal very short term daily cycles. Those cycles haven't been normal lately, so anything goes, but this one lines up in most ways.
The first test of stickability will be a signal trigger line pair at 5080-90 in the NY pre-opening hour, and 5075-85 in the opening half hour. That projects down to 5065-75 at noon. If they can clear that, they should be on their way higher. The first target would be 5110.
If they can't clear it, the bottom would probably drop out.
Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now
LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS APRIL 16, 2024
That’s because they’re early, and an intervening temporary force should drive xxxx xxxx xxxxx.
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The warning signs from the Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system continued last week. The market has acted badly, but this isn’t likely “IT” yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx began in early April, and they will continue to xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx the markets for the next 4 weeks or so. Most of that xxxxx will be coming over the next two weeks. As a result, any additional market decline from here is likely to be xxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Timing that will be tricky and a matter for technical analysis. My technical work has suggested that ideally a 6-month cycle low is due xxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx. A couple of weeks on either side of that would be normal, so we need to be alert, as illustrated in Monday’s Technical Trader report. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
We can expect a bigger selloff once the Treasury starts borrowing again, on balance, probably around the xxxxxxxxxxxxxx, and especially when the Fed’s RRP facility is effectively out of cash, which isn’t likely until xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Meanwhile, let’s run through the charts and data so that you can see the logic behind this conclusion. First a review of how this conclusion has evolved over the past couple of months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
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For moron the markets, see:
Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now April 16, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits April 15, 2024
No More Downside April 15, 2024
Back to the Gold Old Days 4/9/24 April 9, 2024
March Withholding Tax Collections Actually Stunk April 5, 2024
Banking Data Says This Is Last Hurrah for Stocks April 3, 2024
The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024
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The ES 24 hour futures have broken through a signal strip, but immediately paused. IT needs to hold above 5145 in the early going to stay on the buy side. Otherwise, hippobottomus.
One difference on this rally so far is that it's not starting like it's shot from guns, so maybe it will have more staying power than puffed rice this time.
No More Downside
LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER APRIL 15, 2024
That may be a little extreme, but indications that the 6-month cycle down phase, which has shown up very late in the cycle, xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx potential. That’s consistent with another month of xxxxxxxx liquidity ahead. Non subscribers click here to access.
Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.
Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!
For moron the markets, see:
No More Downside April 15, 2024
Back to the Gold Old Days 4/9/24 April 9, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Well Hedged List Gives Steady Performance in the Wild Market April 9, 2024
March Withholding Tax Collections Actually Stunk April 5, 2024
Banking Data Says This Is Last Hurrah for Stocks April 3, 2024
The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
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