PileDriver Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 "The trend is your friend." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 I am just wondering why noone seems to consider the very real possibility that some of that hot hedge fund money which it is assumed will be chasing glam techs has wised up and will soon, if not already doing so, start chasing the PMs. Or perhaps they are merely in the accumulation phase. Unless you are a very good trader, why scalp dongs on a bear bounce in the SOX when you have a fundamental, technical, seasonal, political, and fed-backed bull market to dong - the HUI or XAU? You could make 33 percent in one day in some of these small caps like CUSIF today. The only negatives I can see are Prechter (oh, and Cramer), and he has lost more people (and myself) more money than anyone I can think of, at least from what I have heard. Kept many out of or short the 90's bull. Check out a chart of the HUI. Is not the seasonality evident? See the monthly, weekly and daily charts. Even if overbought on the daily, the weekly is okay, and if the weekly overbought the monthly is not. Just buy in Nov, and hold till May/June unless peace, tranquility and economic sanity break out worldwide. If not in now, start scaling in and buy ST pullbacks, then sell in June - and dump a portion if peace breaks out, just in case. Too easy. Of course it could tank tomorrow, but the odds are clearly in favor to the upside. But if the hedgies jump on board, the HUI will rocket like you cannot believe - especially the more speculative small-cap plays. All IMHO and OCICBW, especially ST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 no way in bloody hell will I go long any of this crap...although I think you guys will probably profit nicely. I can remember being long an insurance stock when sept 11 th happened.it was a $16.00 stock before sept 11,and opened at $10 bucks after sept 11th... I shit bricks waiting that whole week for the markets to reopen,getting axed to the tune of $30k.I held on and eventually got out with only a 4k loss a few weeks later.( it was a very thinly traded stock) the way the world is,I fear I can never hold overnite again...one day you'll wake up and even the best stock can get crushed 50% or more on a terrorist attack of some other crazy thing. I just can't go long when I know some horrible event will screw me sooner or later....like the time I got an airline ipo the very day that plane crashed in long island...my luck is the worst!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 I'm using OmniTrader to find real quickie dong scalps already in good uptrends that defied Dec drop. Just for fun and profit. Don't expect to be in them long but hey, ya never know. I could still be holding some of these screamers as I add my shorts. Not a big commitment either, just to hedge the BEARX just in case we rally higher and longer than I expect. One really never knows...do one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 PigMen will try as usual to frontrun the news by buying up into the little facists speech to the nation Tuesday. I see not let up. No 'consolidation'. Just look at the front running ring wraith stocks like Queerlogic and Klac. They always run ahead of the pack greedily moving on point like rabid greyhounds. Even though market went nowhere today, look out ahead, all you see are the farting sphincters in the distance of these crazed whelps. Market paused here since no fool with half a brain wants to hold junk over the weekend what with a Baron's article, or bush blurb or O Sama incident just a nose hair away. Watch for maniacal ticks Monday morning in my opinon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 4, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Mr. Hanky: We've all been there. But if you stay diversified, your chances of getting blown up are dramatically reduced. I'm getting sick to my stomach getting blown out of my shorts repeatedly, only to see so many stocks making new highs, making huge runs. Losing money time after time on shorts gives you religion. Religion to avoid fighting the FEED at all costs. Sure, you can get stopped out a few times. But it seems like the losses are smaller than the losses on short sales. Do not be scared to go long. Try it a few times, and you will see that the Crack Motion Psychology is on your side. Everyone knows that the Supermodels are toast. But nobody can resist when the blouse gets unbuttoned and you see that fancy lingerie. You will be surprised to see how much quick coin you can make once the speculators are on the move. Try It. You will like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Bernie Schaeffer: My 2003 Market Forecast My conclusions from this chart? We are mired in a very serious bear market, and despite all the volatile upside bounces, the bulls have not only failed to take control but are steadily losing ground in their battle with the bears. The failure by the .INDU last month at the convergence of the two long-term moving averages was extremely compelling technically, and it foretells yet another downside leg that is likely to take out the October 2002 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 By the way, LeMetropole Cafe has an interesting take on the ISM report this week: "The biggest increase in US manufacturing in 11.5 years occurred in December if you believe the ISM numbers. The 5.5-point gain to 54.7 for December was the largest increase since June 1991." "The increase came from an explosion of new orders, which accounts for 1/3 of the ISM index. Inventories rose to 46.2 from 42.1, but the index of stockpiles is at its highest level since August 2000." "Employment inexplicably rose to 47.4 from 43.8!!! The backlog of orders rose to 46.5 from 42.5. A Reuter?s index of 2500 non-US purchasing managers from a dozen countries fell to 48.4 in Dec from 49.5 in Nov. Only two days ago, the Chicago PMI fell 1.5 points more than expected and consumer confidence unexpectedly tanked!!" "Since ISM includes energy purchases, it?s highly likely that stockpiling of energy products ahead of a probable Iraqi conflict boosted the ISM. How much of the ISM gain in new orders is due to inventory building ahead of the expected Iraqi incursion, including orders by the US military as it mobilizes troops?" "The ISM increase at best could be a one-shot ?war? stockpiling wonder, or it could be the product of artful accounting." "Reuters on the dubious ISM numbers: "But the sudden improvement in the December report was at odds with other mediocre economic news in the past month, and puzzled economists. One respondent to the Institute survey mentioned the mid-week holiday as a motivation for customers to place increased orders?Regional surveys of manufacturing in New York, Philadelphia and the Chicago area showed smaller improvements in the past two months." "Thursday?s rally qualifies as a 90% up day (90% advancing volume and 90% of issues advancing). When 90% up days are NOT preceded by one or more 90% down days, the insane rally usually signifies a top, not a buying opportunity. Robust rally action in the next few sessions is a necessity." Doesn't surprise me, I work as a consultant to the depressed merchant chip industry... There's an uptick underway... especially in optical networking applications... I'm less bearish overall... Keep a tight leash on your shorts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 I can hadle longs intraday...but not overnite! I forgot to tell you the time I held 2000 agilent shares overnite(of course it turned out to be the nite they warned)and the stock gapped down 30 points at the open...60 k loss in a few hours!I need another xanax just thinkin about it. I guess I'll have balls again one day...until then...I'm just a chistmas poo sittin in all cash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Interesting articles over at Clif Droke's site. DOW 7600 Likely in January? Gold Stock Volatility Index getting doversoled? Silver in parabolic mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Yeah, but you guys are good traders. Some of us are not so nimble or patient and/or do not have a really nice setup for trading. If you want to do this with some high-beta tech stock, pick out a few favorites and study them so you will get a feel for them. My tech favorites are AMAT and NT. And I always have a position in BEARX in case I get stuck holding longs in an overnight plunge. And I am a reasonable strategist, but very poor trader. So learning to read charts (and also who to listen to, and who to fade) is important to prevent entering too early, getting headfaked and taking profits too early. But going long is certainly easier operationally than going short. And I admire Mark, Pile, etc. for being adaptable and nimble and going with the market, as all good traders should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Yes, try it Mr H. Mark turned me on to doing it. I'm loving it. Today all my donged screamers went up nicely. And all my short picks (which I haven't entered into yet) went down. Its all about stock picking and porfolio diversification like Mark said. If you pick em right (long and short at same time) you almost don't have to worry about market direction/timing. Screw what "the market" does, what matters is what your picks do. Make your own market. The market is very selective on what its driving up though. Just some of the usual suspects. Proof that its a lame rally that will eventually give in to the down forces. Also, trade in even dollar lots per stock (odd shares), not round shares (100, 200, etc.). Don't over-trade (more than you can handle emotionally, etc.) Consistency across the board. AssM, I love the BusinessWeek Market Survey for 2003. What a crusher this year is going to be, at least initially that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Fokker recommends tuning out and listening to the evening news. There's a fullblown energy crisis starting, with a colder winter on tap and no possibility of oil shipments to replace the Venezuelan oil for at least 6 weeks. Prices here in canuckistan are already through the roof, and it's going to get a lot worse. That's cost-push inflation up the wazoo, and the economy was in trouble to begin with. Add the war with Iraq and the disconnect between Dubya and the UN, and the noise coming from Korea. This little bounce is a little bounce. The move in gold tells the real story. I applaud those here with the stones and the agility to dong this rise. Just keep em on a short leash- it won't take much to bring equities to their knees, where they belong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 ANOTHER SECTOR THAT LOOKS GOOD VALU I think the motors may have bottomed. They look good valu from a fundamental point of view. Remember they have already lost two thirds of their value. F $17 b, GM $20 b, DC $26 b. Only $60 b buys you the entire US motor vehicle industry and the best brand (Mercedes) in the world. Mercedes must sell Chrysler- it was a disastrous decison to combine the best car company in the world with the third rate US one. The only decent investment for a car co has been Porsche. The problem with these companies is they are not being run for the benefit of the shareholders - a lot like the Airlines actually - which seem to be run only for the benefit of the employees eg sales maintence first profits last. The downside is they may adopt the habits of airlines and steel and actually go chapter 11 at the bottom of their cycles as airlines and steel regularly do. Cars are deep cyclicals like airlines and steel and hence have large chapter 11 risk. ALSO MAJOR BENEFICERIES OF LOWER $US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 Paul Shread commented on the twelve 90% upside days since 1960 and what followed them. Yesterday was one of the twelve by the way and likely marked a near-top (if that's a word). Hopefully stoolies aren't holding dongs overnight, since commissions are so low nowadays. In my opinion, the risk far outweighs the reward in holding positions overnight. If I got the urge to hold longs overnight, the prudent thing to do would be to close the positions at the close, and reenter them at the open the next day. At least that is what I would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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