BudFox Posted September 5, 2003 Report Share Posted September 5, 2003 Market drops are suffering a bad case of the GMTFI's Big time. Like its saying "get in on this floor..." deep down I'm a bear and love shorting (fast profits) but I'm looking at this thing and it just says, despite all the negative signs, I want to go higher and will over time. Biggest correction I see is 10-15% and that may not happen until Oct-Dec. Big deal. Funny, not two weeks ago I was questioning your judgement. Now I'm completely unbiased and have been scalping dongs all week (not too good at it though). Perhaps if I were clutching some underwater shorts I'd still be bearish. But a few months in a row of watching puts expire worthless has really taught me a lesson. I really appreciate the bull/bear dialogue on this site!!! :grin: Thanks Wndy, Pile, Jerry and others for your useful "against the grain" input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pere Ubu Posted September 5, 2003 Report Share Posted September 5, 2003 The unemploymet numbers are based on claims... only 40% of the workforce is able to claim... every week 100,000 people run out of benifits and drop off the list... yields on 10 years need to drop to 2.4% very quickly... In Japan mortgage rates are at 1.5% but big deal if you have a 100 year 1,000,000 mortgage on a property that is only worth $250,000... Because Japan has a trade surplus with the US they can benifit from higher US rates... or Japan is dependant on US debt inflation for their economic survival... How low can yields on 10 years go? Ultimately close to zero is the answer and then since the US is the number 1 economy on the earth the ability to do the Japan trick is impossible...there is just no economy bigger to use for life support...The US is the top of the world economy... Unless we become exporters to another planet with higher interest rates the jig will soon be up... The FEDERAL RESERVE is not printing money to support the economy if they were interest rates would be rising significantly... The FEDERAL RESERVE is expanding the fractional reserve base of the Fractional reserve system to create the conditions to allow the comercial banks to expand the debt supply which is why the FEDERAL FUNDS rate has been dropping an average of 83 basis points/ year for the past 23 years... Talk of printing presses is to Legitimatize the flawed logic of the blind faith in the just think positive inflation forever religion which the fractional reserve banking system needs to function Here's a Pere Ubu suggestion: Since your posts are monothematic, pata-economically speaking, why not put a generic canonical FRB critique in your signature file. It would save you a lot of time and effort. Not to mention typing. Come to think of it, Pere Ubu might do the same to make as many aware of the coming Plan, of which FRB is but a mere shadow cast on the wall by the brilliant light of Pata-Economics. Or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On The Beach Posted September 5, 2003 Report Share Posted September 5, 2003 Covered my ("Hype! sentimentalism") one-day NDX scalp short as noted on M2M. 2 for 2 since covering the core on 3/10 but hardly worth the effort and so much more stressful than donging for 20-days and going on vacation (now that I'm long -as it were - over feeling 'dirty' doing the latter). Cash revolver loaded and ready to ding-dong back in next week. Puppet master Rove still being allowed to control World's financial markets. Therefore, no top in sight...contrary T/A/refi data nothwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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