phatbubble Posted September 18, 2009 Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 "These models ... suggest that a currency crisis is brought on by a combination of high debt, low foreign reserves, falling government revenue, increasing expectations of devaluation, and domestic borrowing constraints." St Louis Fed (Abbigail J. Chiodo is a senior research associate and Michael T. Owyang is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.) Paper The US won't surprise everyone by going tits up some sunny morning like Russia in 1998 (well, at least LTCM was surprised). Managing the expectations IS the game. IMHO we're about 2-3 months away from the game shifting up to the Gnarly Level. Hope Beavis & BenHead have cleaned the goo off their joysticks and are ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted September 18, 2009 Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 [snip]The expectations game is everything. [snip] "But I believe, in contrast, that it is far more likely that the United States will be driven to an outright default on Treasury securities, openly reneging on the interest due on its formal debt and probably repudiating part of the principal. " Jeffrey Rogers Hummel FEATURED ARTICLE | AUGUST 3, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted September 18, 2009 Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 "But I believe, in contrast, that it is far more likely that the United States will be driven to an outright default on Treasury securities, openly reneging on the interest due on its formal debt and probably repudiating part of the principal. "Jeffrey Rogers Hummel FEATURED ARTICLE | AUGUST 3, 2009 Yeah. Sorry if I warn't clear. Pretty simply, whether & when this takes place is a function of the trigger mechanism of how many & how fast people come to think it's likely. Unless of course there's a master plan to crash the currency. Then it's just a when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 18, 2009 Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 Doc, The podcast ends abruptly at 28:36. 13,416KB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 18, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 Oops. Have to fix that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted September 18, 2009 Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 On Constitution Day, Audit the Fed HR 1207 hits critical mass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rationalize Posted September 18, 2009 Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 no need to default, all the U.S. owes is "dollars", which can be printed for free in maSS quantitiesso U.S. has no problem let's print a few Trillion more tonight! it's all free baby it's all good Butt .. doollars can be used to buy "things" yeah ? So, with more doolars about, we can all have more "things" ! Like with the cash for clunkers. We destroy working things, and replace them with new cash, so that we can all have new better working "things" yeah ? Save the planet, destroy a "bad" productive aSSet, get cash! Soooo, here's the plan -- destroy more and more working "things", print more and more doolars, then .. it's new and better "things" for all !! Better standard of living. "Wealth Creation". [* Don't check your premises.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted September 18, 2009 Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 You sound like shorty. You feeling ok this evening? hay I reamsemble that reamark anywayz I finally got a buy signal on the spoozer, I'm a patient gal butt I think I've detected an uptrend now, so I'm ready ta flip hole hog long right here at the markit and ride this big bad bull sideline $caSSh momo gotta own it hold longterm the recession is over stimulus worked green shoots all 'round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted September 18, 2009 Report Share Posted September 18, 2009 <h2 class="entry-title">Radio Free Wall Street 9/17/09</h2> Lee Adler, Aaron Krowne, and Russ Winter discuss the barbell trade, and why it will lead to no good end. Lee Adler discusses how Fed and Treasury actions are likely to impact the market. The unemployment data isn�€™t as bad as it sounds. It�€™s worse. Not a subscriber? Click here to hear a free preview. Listen to any podcast prior to April 22, 2009. Click here for archive. Be surprised! Listen to the July 17, 2009 podcast in its entirety for free. To subscribe and hear this podcast right now, click here! Radio Free Wall Street Podcast 9/17/09 [37:29m]: Hide Player | Play in Popup | Download Subscribers, click player to start. Doc, this graphic brought my safari browser to its knees, this happened yesterday here too when something else was posted. It doesn't happen with normal pictures. Is it a script of some kind? Safari reports the script is running slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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