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The China Bubble


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The big fact today was that the SPX cash got within 0.98 point of setting a new 12-month high, then closed 10 points below its high. The Dec. spoos opened at 1032, and it looks like they'll close below their open.

 

It's a potential double top. I'll bet brian4 and The End have something to say about it too.

 

p.s. Have a great weekend soup. ?;)

damn straight on the potential for a double TOP. However, A high is not due until Tuesday +- a day. I am perplexed. I did not trade well personaly today. I shorted more at 1036 but covered that position for a slight loss and bought 1 (thank g-d, only one) call. I still own it. :angry: Still have 6 Nov. 1050's though(puts). Wish I had seven. The fly in the ointment is the fact about what the new week brings. Do we close the gap at 1020 and then go up? Do we fall from here into late Oct.?

 

An expanding triangle could still be in play targeting 1050 before we fall.

tHE eND,

 

cANT FIND jIM cURRY INTERVIEW ON iKE iOSSIF WEBSITE. dO YOU HAVE THE EXACT LINK ?

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I could get in but there is a different problem that I had few months ago.

 

When I click on a URL in message, nothing happens. The board window

becomes unusable and other window does not show up.

Happened twice already (on PD's link and Anals closing link)

A right click and "Open in new window" works fine.

 

Not sure if this is related but just wanted to report.

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The big fact today was that the SPX cash got within 0.98 point of setting a new 12-month high, then closed 10 points below its high. The Dec. spoos opened at 1032, and it looks like they'll close below their open.

 

It's a potential double top. I'll bet brian4 and The End have something to say about it too.

 

p.s. Have a great weekend soup. ?;)

damn straight on the potential for a double TOP. However, A high is not due until Tuesday +- a day. I am perplexed. I did not trade well personaly today. I shorted more at 1036 but covered that position for a slight loss and bought 1 (thank g-d, only one) call. I still own it. :angry: Still have 6 Nov. 1050's though(puts). Wish I had seven. The fly in the ointment is the fact about what the new week brings. Do we close the gap at 1020 and then go up? Do we fall from here into late Oct.?

 

An expanding triangle could still be in play targeting 1050 before we fall.

tHE eND,

 

cANT FIND jIM cURRY INTERVIEW ON iKE iOSSIF WEBSITE. dO YOU HAVE THE EXACT LINK ?

One question are you a subscriber? If you are, Log in, scroll down the page until you see J. Curry's name and click on the link, then click on the most recent interview (9-19-03).

 

http://www.marketviews.tv/

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i dont piss in my pants nor do i shit into them. Double top a possibility, onjly thing that bothers me a bit is the gold crahs, i mean a 5 dollar downmove would have been normal, but that crash today feels more like at that top in feb.

 

Look at Dow, look at that beautiful channel low of july1 and aug6, now make line, afte royu have finsihed you make parallel line starting with high og june 17 next point is high of sep4, do ignore the false breakout at sep19, this line is currently around 9700. That is a beautiful channel, will it be broken to the upside? I doubt highly.

 

The probelm for bears: We need some bad news, i mean NEW bad news not those everybody already knows. Some pretty hard earniongs warnings could do the job.

 

I think the top is more or less in. Look, after such a monster bull run, we cant just top out in one day and then collapse, thjsi is more like a process, could take weeks.

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Spending our way to disaster

 

The consumer debt bubble in the United States could make the stock bubble seem like nothing.

October 3, 2003: 10:32 AM EDT

By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

 

 

 

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The American consumer has become deeply addicted to spending, running up ever higher levels of debt in order to live in a fashion that is beyond his means. And the world has become equally addicted to the consumer continuing to burn through cash.

 

It's a dangerous situation -- potentially a bubble that dwarfs even the U.S. asset bubble that burst in 2000 -- and it will be a challenge for policy-makers to keep it from ending badly.

 

 

 

 

US consumers are hooked on spending

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TwoScrews, Mr William FURd has replied:

He's simply INCENSED that you made fun of BOTH the Edsel AND his alma mater today on Intraday Stool.

He is, thereFUR, going to deny you access to ZERO percent financing on his obscenely monstrous, gas guzzling SUV's and pickup trucks.

 

Igor, old bean! I say!!! Those school ties are still good FUR SOMEthing, wot?

 

Igor???

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So, we have a meltup (which couldn't sustain its mo-mo into the close), fuelled mostly by a superficially glowing employment report.

 

And that report? Well, Elaine (Me-Love-Mitch-Long-Time!) Chao's bunch made a really quite significant methodology change in midstream in order to get the glowing number -- underweighting traditional corporate employment and overweighting [estimated] small-time independent employment.

 

Now, in a world which cared about clean numbers, the fact that such a change was made without fanfare would be a scandal. Instead, it's a festival!

 

Moreover, in a world which cared about clean numbers, there should at least have been an appendix saying, "Here's what we changed, and here's what the number would have looked like if we had stuck with the previous methodology."

 

You may draw your own conclusions from the fact that such a comparison was very definitely not on offer.

 

Anyway, your faithful correspondent is simply *itching* to get short; the forecast calls for pain. But I can't imagine that this is the end of the blatantly manipulated, outright false data to be pushed out by this Administration.

 

There is something which they absolutely know in their bones must happen within the next few weeks -- they HAVE to turn the market and the economy to the upside. Now, now, now, now. This is the last chance they've got. It's a raw, brutal, Darwinian imperative for them to do so.

 

If they don't manage to get the nose up in the fourth quarter? Well, January 1, 2004 is when most Americans wake up, roll over, stretch, yawn, and say, "Hey, honey, it's a Presidential election year." Really, in all honesty, right now, average Joes and Janes are not paying much if any attention. A startling number of people cannot, for instance, name a single one of the eight or so Democratic candidates for the Presidency.

 

Early 2004 is when the press is going to really begin to crank up its political coverage, too. And one thing which always happens in an election year with a down economy is that the down economy begins to lead the coverage.

 

A feedback loop then kicks in (wherein the economy continues to suck because the evening news references its suckfulness every night when talking about the race, which then serves to depress consumer and business confidence). Rather quickly, it becomes an inescapable albatross around the necks of incumbents.

 

The Bush people have seen that movie before, in 1992. They didn't like the ending.

 

Expect for the massaging and adjusting of numbers to become even more overt and shameless and extensive, all the way through Q104. At that point, the cake is baked, and if things aren't looking up, well, the operatives are going to start spending more time on resume polishing than on number tweaking.

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i dont piss in my pants nor do i shit into them. Double top a possibility, onjly thing that bothers me a bit is the gold crahs, i mean a 5 dollar downmove would have been normal, but that crash today feels more like at that top in feb.

 

Look at Dow, look at that beautiful channel low of july1 and aug6, now make line, afte royu have finsihed you make parallel line starting with high og june 17 next point is high of sep4, do ignore the false breakout at sep19, this line is currently around 9700. That is a beautiful channel, will it be broken to the upside? I doubt highly.

 

The probelm for bears: We need some bad news, i mean NEW bad news not those everybody already knows. Some pretty hard earniongs warnings could do the job.

 

I think the top is more or less in. Look, after such a monster bull run, we cant just top out in one day and then collapse, thjsi is more like a process, could take weeks.

Bad nooz? Do you want the N. Koreans to nuke someone?

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