GregFokker Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 And now QQQ is trading 25.70. I'll be switching it off now Listening to some ditz suggesting buying CSCO and C as "new value investing". This dummy's on NBR and has authored a book. This bear has barely even begun. BEARly, lettuce say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 After yesterdays explosion-I'm basically flat-holding only 3 April SPOO puts just slightly in and slightly under the money. This Pig had no follow thru today with the exception of as Rub said the grease pole spike at the open and the last 10 minutes with the tape painters. The explosion yesterday was propelled largely by short covering and even then new highs were clocked by new lows on both indexes. The Bradley turn date is Monday so it could be a wild day. Simply put it looks to me that those who wanted to cover did, those who wanted to buy did-so the news is still bad and again they have no buyers. 835 on the SPX held today and they should have gone thru it held it above 840 just on momentum and they could not. One rule of T/A that applies here is "the stronger the rally in a downtrend the quicker it is retraced". Unless the trend has indeed turned up this thing will collapse under it's own wait and SOON. You just cannot make a bull case out of the evidence at hand whether it be volume, pc ratio's, trend lines, money flow etc. this reminds me of Jan.31 and Feb.3 where the markets had a two day spike reversal to the upside after a steady decline and then the trend re asserted itself the next day and the markets had their head handed to them the rest of the month with only 5 positive days. So we shall see don't be surprised at a resumption of trend and remember this pop has made the slope of hope even steeper. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 I went to Sornette's paper here,http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/020...209/0209065.pdf & was wondering if your understanding of his work .... I skimmed the above paper but didn't get much out of it even though I have a BS in math from many years back. Cut & paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Mar 14, 2003 Stephen Roach: A lopsided world had plenty on its plate before Iraq, and is likely to face many of the same pitfalls post Iraq. That, more than anything else, should ground the reflation trade in a still tough reality. Reflation Trade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bidhitter Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 B4... Doc mentioned central bank intervention. Wonder if this had anything to do with this reinsurer in the news liquidating Euro equities and the masses assuming US would follow suit? And we damn sure could have w/o stepping into the currency market. Oh well...it's only useless speculation at this point. This reminded me of last year when the trin blasted high in early July followed by a short rally only to get tko'd days later.. Mark must be laughing his ass off about now.. Calgon..take me awayyyyyy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Quote: I wonder if you can read the above two Typro-Graphic fonts? (I do), It is not very elegant, please pick some better one. Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Okay...which one of the Stoolies is the Author....there is no way that this guy isn't a member...FESS UP! Financial Sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Well the US market played out pretty much as I thought it would. Now UK/Europe in trouble as the US was looking zippy when the aforementioned closed and as bidhitter mentioned there seemed to be an expectation that the US would keep the party going for another 24 hrs. The footsie had its biggest one day gain for 15 yrs on Thurs and the CAC 40 (France) rocketed another 7% last night. That's 13% in 2 trading days!! Totally unsustainable. Interesting article at http://home.flash.net/%7Erhmjr/index.html re outsourcing services to other countries. " A recent survey of 145 U.S. companies by consultant Forrester Research found that 88 percent of the firms that look overseas for services claimed to get better value for their money offshore than from U.S. providers, while 71 percent said offshore workers did better quality work." "In one call center in Pampanga province, 850 Filipinos answer customer service calls for Internet service provider America Online, a member of the AOL Time Warner family." This is telling me that western salaries/wages are going to drop precipitiously and/or there will be very high unemployment. The unemployment rate in Australia during the Great Depression was 29%. Can anyone enlighten me to the % in US in this era? Speaking of unemployment, I'm a bit confused as to how the US system works. I gather a worker pays insurance while employed against future unemployment. 1. After being pink slipped does the employee receive full previous salary, a % of previous salary or is it a calculation based on other parameters? 2. What happens if the employee leaves voluntarily? 3. Is there a basic living allowance payable after the insurance runs out? Thanks if someone could answer those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Quote: I wonder if you can read the above two Typro-Graphic fonts? (I do), It is not very elegant, please pick some better one. Thanks, Actually, through diligent study I can I was wondering how long it would take for someone to comment Btw, "elegance" in the the eye of the beholder. No? No worries, I'll get around to changing it. It was just a pun on someone else's avatar - they were just using the first character for "female". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 DeepBlueSea, yesterday you said,"... if one was going to try to predict the behaviour of the markets, then a good place to start might be to use techniques that have worked incredibly well in describing a very large class of other similar phenomena in the natural world. Such as the "renomalization group" and "power law" methods originally developed for condensed matter physics which deal with a collection of larger number of interacting entities (atoms, molecules, spins, etc.) as do the markets. That's what this group has done..." I went to Sornette's paper here, http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/020...209/0209065.pdf & was wondering if your understanding of his work comes from your physics background, if you purchased his book, or if you researched some of the links in the above .pdf link. I skimmed the above paper but didn't get much out of it even though I have a BS in math from many years back. Thanks. My background is in (high energy particle) physics, so I'm familiar with the concepts used in the paper from a different context. Here's the paper that provides that background their work . . . Log-periodic route to fractal functions The key concept is in Section 2: how the discrete renormalization group gives rise to a class of functions of which the Weierstrass function is the most infamous member. After all the above theoretical development, they basically end up fitting the first 6 terms of such a Weierstrass function MathWorld: Weierstrass Function which is remarkable in that it's continuous but you can't take it's derivative at any point (mathematicians call it "pathological"). That's the solid dark curve in If you're willing to take their work at face value (not that I'm suggesting that you should) you can just go and fit your own Weierstrass functions to any financial data. I hope I've answered your question(s). I haven't read his book. I've only read the papers. Much shorter In my view using Fib's, e-waves, etc. to study market behaviour is like trying to understand the motion of planets using Ptolemy's medieval system (earth at the center of the universe) instead of Galileo's heliocentric solar system. Or search for black holes using astrology. Science never stands still. Econophysics is breaking new ground. Btw, today's is Einstein's birthday. Happy Birthday Albert! Wherever you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3Martinis Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Sony Will Shift PlayStation 2 Production to China Tokyo, March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Sony Corp. plans to move production of its PlayStation 2 console to China next year, as the rivalry from Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox forces the world's largest video-game console maker to tighten control on costs and prices. Guarantee your retirement with a fast business venture.......4 words ..... Ping Pong Master - Online !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Aloha Riverboaters: Enjoying life outside The Matrix, here in the lush tropical environment. Anyone hear the Superporno Orgy Tom O'Brien and Tim Ord had last night? Comparing this setup to 1998, claiming the bear is over, both jumped in with both feet without following their own rule of waiting for a retracement first? Both claiming to have nailed the bottom on Ord's Bullish Spring? We'll see. Even Fleck caved in at went long for the first time in 6 years. Long on TECH flyers!! Alan Newman was kind enough to send me a special bulletin, warning Riverboaters not to chase this rally, and he thinks its already near exhausted. Of course, he said this after 911, and got blown out by shorting the big bearish engulfing in October 2001. Bob Carver also warned of a "fake rally", noting the horrible breadth and the Russell 2000 failing to participate. He's still bearish. Anyone see Ford pull off that $2.2 billion zero interest auto loan securitization?? 7 b.p. over LIBOR!!! Fully subscribed. Only 2 b.p. higher than Toyota's recent $500 million ABS deal, which was FIVE TIMES oversubscribed!!! Oh the horror of those buying this paper!! Roger Bentley Arnold now has his daily radio show archived on TFNN.COM. Worth listening to. He says the financial globe was near meltdown, and yet another stick save by the Matrix Program Robots averted a collapse. Not much else to report. My general observation is this. Especially after reading Kindlebergers's "Manias, Panics, and Crashes" We are in the greatest liquidity blowoff of all time. If commodities, gold, and bonds are imploding, then the cash is going to chase which ever asset class is going up. Which could be stocks. Which could last a long time. We'll have to see. When you have the Perpetual Motion Liquidity Machine pumping out paper by round tripping mortgage loans 1000 times, turning debt into cash, that spells inflation. Anyone hear about all the Program Robot automated commodity trading programs now advertised? O'Brien has one featured as a regular guest on his program. I'm sure we are now in 100% Black Box Trading Mode now in all areas of the financial markets. Has the trend in stocks turned up? Enough to get every Commodity Robot to start Panic Buying index futures and shorting everything else? As long as the giant cash pool stays around, the Robots will have plenty to chips to Riverboat with. All crashes, without exception, according to Kindleberger, are triggered from a contraction in credit and liquidity. No real stock market selling will happen until the flows reverse. Hey Hypertiger: How about those 100 year bonds? If that doesn't work, how about 500 year bonds? Why not 1000 year Perpetual Indexed Inflation Protection Non-Cash Paying Accrual Bonds? Why doesn't Al Green simply roll out Infinite Maturity Bonds to prop up every financial market in the world? Anyone notice how S. Korea FROZE all mutual fund redemptions Thursday night? Oh, the horror of the Paper Pyramid. One other thing.... Poor Buddadropping will be retiring as the Color Commentator. He's had enough. He'll show up from time to time, but he has informed me that he has elected to enjoy life and remove himself from the Matrix Monitor...... Anyway, I'll check in later. By the way..... 5-day minimum before re-entering trades. Those who covered need to wait 5 days to see if we get a bullish retracement to go long, or another March Madness blowoff on declining volume to short into. Must be patient. Da Boyz painted that doji today on purpose..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Adam Hamilton's Latest - S&P 500 Waterfall Imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Wndysrf, First, I'm very sad to hear of Buddha's decision. He has been a great contributor to your column, your thread and IDS. I hope he changes his mind. Second, would you elaborate a bit on what was behind "da boyz" dojiing todays market? TIA I hope you are enjoying Maui. It's one of my favorite places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzly_Canuck Posted March 15, 2003 Report Share Posted March 15, 2003 Tim Ord's latest: The Ord Oracle 3/13/3 Read, discuss, and possibly refute; but don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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