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Stoolie Market Poll For February 2003


Where will the SPX close on February 31, 2003  

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920

 

I put this guess in over here because I am somewhat bullish on this market and don't want to antagonize the regular posters on the other boards.

 

Why? Because I think it really is "different" on this rally. We are now 34 months out into this bear market. Coincidentally, the longest other bear in this century was 34 months, 1929-32. In 1932, we subsequently rallied 50% over 4 years into 1936. And, we did this amidst far worse economics than we are currently experiencing.

 

I know the valuations are too high and not comparable. Times are somewhat different. I can't vouch for the so-called safety net in the economy, but I do know that 34 months into this bear, I still have trouble finding a parking place at Micro-Center. No bread lines. So, I think we may see a scenario more like the 1980s where the earnings gradually caught up with what was also then perceived to be overvaluation. A somewhat positive version of John Mauldin's "muddle-through economy".

 

For the record, I was a bear from 1997 to last October.

 

Thanks to all the regular stoolies for all the wisdom here.

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Au contraire. 60 Minutes or Dateline, I forget which, did a heart breakiing story on food lines a couple weeks ago.

 

What does the market have to do with fundamentals? Absolutely nothing. ESPECIALLY when we are talking about a period of a month.

 

Now I have no quarrel with bullish argements. That's fine. But when those arguments completely ignore the teachings of Stock Proctology which Doc has spent his life on, now that hurts Doc's feelings.

 

The 34 month thesis is definitely one to consider. Nikkei also had a rally at a similar point.

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Guess I'd better comment fer real before the thread closes AND THEN IT'LL BE TOO LATE. :blink:

 

I voted for 720, although I could see 760 as an alternative.

 

Really though, on February 31st I don't think any of the markets in our immediate space/time dimension are open.

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