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mjk, you've aksed in yesterday's thread whether I attach high probability to the ABC (i.e., a leg C to above the December highs is about to start) scenario. The answer is - no, I don't. I don't think that it is going to happen. It's just a possibility to be aware of. I try to keep an open mind and am always on the lookout for the market proving me wrong.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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any upside here is short, brief, and over fast...

Anyone know who is the source of the quote that life is "nasty, brutish, and short"?

 

21st century version: market makers are brutish, but best be short on the Nasty.

 

Thanks SG for all your info -- greatly appreciated.

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Re the fund

 

Real Asset... not Real Estate...

 

As in commodities, CRB Index, Oil, Gas, Gold, Silver... you know, that REAL STUFF that aint paper...

 

Yes, Real Estate is overvalued... will become more so as consumer incomes begin a multi year decline and interest rates and credit risks continue to rise...

 

If your looking at buying a home now, offer 15-20% below the ask... you may get surprised...

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any upside here is short, brief, and over fast...

Anyone know who is the source of the quote that life is "nasty, brutish, and short"?

 

21st century version: market makers are brutish, but best be short on the Nasty.

 

Thanks SG for all your info -- greatly appreciated.

It was a British fellow, all crumpets and tea, wot? and the quote was something the effect that "the lives of men are nasty, brutish and short". I seem to attribute it to the mud and desperation of Oliver Twist and all, but the specific author eludes this fokker.

 

The problem, as Doc pointed out, is that being short can sometimes take a long time. Fokker's glad he rolled his Feb contracts into March, but will bail at a relative bottom and reload later if it looks like this could drag out. No need to get tanked on premium the way it happened with GE in December.

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any upside here is short, brief, and over fast...

Anyone know who is the source of the quote that life is "nasty, brutish, and short"?

 

21st century version: market makers are brutish, but best be short on the Nasty.

 

Thanks SG for all your info -- greatly appreciated.

thomas hobbes - leviathan

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Market Volume

 

Market Status (2/4/2003) :

Today the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes moved lower in response to the resistive volume from the past few days. There was a moderate amount of supportive volume to the downside as the market moved lower in the morning today, but in the afternoon this was more than countered by a large amount of resistive volume to the upside. Because of the predominant resistive VMA spikes today, we expect that the market will move lower in the short-term, but with a slight chance for a retracement to the upside. Our outlook has not changed for the mid and long-term; we still expect the market to continue in its current downtrend.

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Guest AssMaster
Repeat:  985 NDX, 24.49 or so on Q's to be expected.

 

Thur and Friday hard down days IMO, SG turn window is tomorrow

 

Also, where is  the real secular bull market? How about hard assets?

 

Oppenheimer Real Asset Fund

 

Course, the tech bull market should be starting today, so you may want to get fully invested on the Cisco good news... heh heh

Oppenheimer Real Asset CL Y

 

Top Ten Holdings 3 as of 07/31/2002

Cargill 2.10%

AIG 2.51%

FNMA 6.5%

Cargill 2.51%

BDBC 2.41%

Principal Residential Mtg Cap Res 0%

FNMA 7%

BDBC 2.23%

FHLMC 3%

FNMA 6%

 

I would avoid this particular fund like the plague. Perhaps it is not exactlky the same one you mentioned, but woe to those who bought it instead of the right one.

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