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Symbolic Of The Perma-Bear Ultimate Fantasy?


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4/1/03 is 50% time retracement of the APRIL 1994-MARCH 2000 advance...

If you regard the Super Bubble as running from Nov. 1994 to March 2000 (i.e., treating 1994 as an a-b-c correction, where Apr. '94 was the bottom of the 'a' wave and Nov. '94 the bottom of the 'c' wave), the 50% time retrace ended in Oct. 2002.

 

These multiple time frames may explain the past 9 months of volatile flat action, where different cycles are bottoming asynchronously.

 

When they all get in gear, in one direction or the other, it'll be "trend time again." Thank goodness ... this is turning into "the malaise that kills."

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Machinehead,

 

You are right.... 10/10/02 has more characteristics that need to be paid attention...

 

The following is the Line, log chart, of the Weekly SPX.... The decline from 3/00 to 10/02 is equal, in percentage terms to the bear of 72-74 (with deviation of less than 1% on closing basis). In terms of price....the low of October 2002 retraced exactly 50% of price for the advance 1974-2000.

 

I know that there are people here that can manage on their own, but less experience traders should consider the bigger picture as well and not just pick a side (bull or bear) and go...

 

Things are tricky now... ;)

 

 

spx_ws.gif

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"the malaise that kills"?

 

Carter aka "The Peanut" used the word "malaise" and it sure killed him politically!

 

In Nov or Dec HRFF said this sidewaze action might persist FUR longer than anyone DREAMED of.

 

The BARE is vASStly amuzed by this cycle talk, or, more precisely, the notion that we may be approaching some point where this market will lift off in a big way.

 

It's perfectly emblematic of TA's great weakness - ignoring funnymentals, and, in this scenario now so much the subject of TA conjecture - ignoring history.

 

All these wannabe? bulls seem to think this upward trend of twenty years - these still stratospheric levels of major averages like the DJIA and S&P, relative to the longer historical context, as some kind of linear continuum and the advent of this bear market some annoyance to be swept ASSide to permit resumption of the mania that took us here. We're still so FUR above the historical mean it's ridiculous.

 

TA may point to resurrection of that now-interrupted trend, butt it ain't gonna happen and history is why, let alone the funnymentals which provide NO basis FUR it, yet, anyway.

 

In "short" it's a laughable notion - which means it might happen given Wall St's infinite perversity.

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