Charmin Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 The only technical question I have for the wise ones tonight is - will ascending continue for the DJI in a bear market like it did for the SPX during a bull market? Couple charts clipped and put together from: Sy harding http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm4.html Tsp Talk http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/co...s_10_23_08.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevieo Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Doc or anybody with some knowledge of CDS, is it possible to declare all outstanding CDS void? (or at least those that are held by parties that don't own the underlying debt?) what would be the implications? the CDS market is a massive guillotine hanging over the markets, perhaps the lever has already been pulled http://www.moonofalabama.org/2008/09/solution-declar.html 703879[/snapback] I think this is overblown. The number on that site make sense. $65 trillion in swaps on $6 trillion in MBS. While that seems a little high for straight MBS, it's not out of line for CDOs based on MBS. There's not a lot of room there for a disaster all that much larger than on the mortgages themselves. There's swaps at several stages, only one of which has to get paid in an event. Then it mentions reinsurance, which means another block that's just passed from one party to another. It all adds up to which party pays the loss. The question noone can answer is how much of it is naked bets. 10 to 1 doesn't seem farfetched to be more than insurance bought by involved parties. The proof of this is in the settlements. We've seen a few, and even the pessimistic claims aren't far out of line with what the estimates for losses would be without the swaps. The publicized numbers are shockingly, almost unbelievably small. What I want to know is how many players were smart enough to get a CDS on their CDS provider. I'd guess a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 The idea of Social Security is that current workers are paying for current retirees. Your money are not yours. They belongs to the folks who are already retired. You owe them money. Both by law and by moral. Just because they've protected your future fighting in multitude of past wars and because they've paid for your education by their taxes. 703889[/snapback] Sorry, you are wrong. My money is my money, but it is being stolen against my will by the government. And the current receivers of Social Security for the most part have not fought in any wars, nor have they paid for my education. Here in California the education system is funded by property taxes, another boondogle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 The only technical question I have for the wise ones tonight is - will ascending continue for the DJI in a bear market like it did for the SPX during a bull market? Couple charts clipped and put together from: Sy harding http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm4.html Tsp Talk? http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/co...s_10_23_08.html 703907[/snapback] (scratch that) Ascending is kinda the definition of a bull market -- higher highs, higher lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Sorry, you are wrong. My money is my money, but it is being stolen against my will by the government. And the current receivers of Social Security for the most part have not fought in any wars, nor have they paid for my education. Here in California the education system is funded by property taxes, another boondogle. 703909[/snapback] Social security is such a scam. Originally, that money was supposed to be put in some type of trust. Well, it never was, but was spent by our communist government just as fast as it came in. Today, as always, the payments to social security obligations come out of the general fund. There is no way the government can pay social security to baby boomers when they are all eligible to collect. Such a joke. Man, we need to just start over!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Euro is currently in what appears to be a triangle. Looks like a big move may be coming overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 No problem, there's plenty more to go around. "As of October 17, the S&P 500 closed at 940.55. Today it is 876.77. That's a drop of 6.79%. That also means that the price to book of the S&P 500 is now 1.58. It was 2.5 earlier this year, the 20 year average. 1982 is a year that is commonly said to have been when the 20 year bull market began. The S&P 500 price to book ratio then was 1.0. So, therefore, there could be a further 30% drop in stock prices until the real bottom is reached. Anymore than 30%, and the S&P 500 average would be trading below book value, which would seem strange. Many stocks are already below book value." Free email commentary by Trader Review http://www.traderreview.com/ 703900[/snapback] If I correctly remember the line from the movie Heaven can Wait, the owner of the LA Rams was asked why he sold the team. He replied, I was forced to. When asked how he was forced to, he replied "I was offered $16 million over book value". There was a time when only suckers paid over book value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Private Skidmark Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Looks like the Nikkei sprang a leak. Maybe lunch was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Private Skidmark Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Old Yeller's leaking, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 (scratch that) Ascending is kinda the definition of a bull market -- higher highs, higher lows. 703911[/snapback] Yeah, but do they make bottoms the same in bull and bear. We might rather be suffering from "Triangles In Trouble" as suggested by Matt http://www.trivisonno.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 futures rolling over: nq - 18 es - 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Private Skidmark Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Nikkei down 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Looks like the euro may be breaking down out of the tri, which would launch dollar pig even higher. I don't see a bottom in the stock market until there is a top in the dollar. Eery how the index futures rolled over as did the euro with the dollar index rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Private Skidmark Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 No resistance at the 2003 low. So, I guess that would like be a bad sign, huh. Nikkei set for lowest close since 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 850 is the low on futures so far...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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