DrStool Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 Mohel Lynch Gets Tips from Doc? (12/03/02) Is one of Wack Street's top strategoists getting tips from Doc? Certainly seems so. And did the finally market top out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted December 4, 2002 Report Share Posted December 4, 2002 What makes you think 8700 on the Dow Jokes would trigger short covering at this point of the game? Of course I mean is there some intuitive logic beyond cylces? Where would these shorts be holding from? Frankly I think a lot of shorts have been blown out and the existing shorts are from either much higher levels or were recently put on. In either of the two above cases covering now would seem just plain wrong unless the market showed some tendency to shoot much higher immediately, which I don't believe is the case. Intermmediate I see the market headed towards 8000 by year end, a little bump early January and then down hard into the spring. The big wuestion in my mind right now is what happens in housing. Autos are already tipping their hands, and it ain't pretty. Critically for autos is the drop in truck sales, which were very bad. That's where detroit makes it's money...cars for the most part are loss leaders to help boost CAFE numbers. We are going through what will be the easiest comparisons for most companies (auto excepted) now and then they get harder again going into spring. If we fail to get the Santa rally, which I expect, I doubt there will much of a year end bonus flow, fill up the IRA, damn the torpedoes full speed ahead, into stocks, possibly the opposite. Having bought into Prubear last Wednesday, I find I made about $100 yesterday --- way better than the 10 cents the same amount would have earned yesterday parked in savings. For me it's a whole hell of a lot bettter letting Tice worry about the daily machinations than me screwing around and wasting a bunch of dollars. I have bigger fish to fry with the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogBoy Posted December 5, 2002 Report Share Posted December 5, 2002 I once talked to a guy who compared the near market to the ocean waves that gradually recede from high tide (MAR 00) to low tide (JUL 04 ?). Notice how we made a lower high this time than the August high. This has been a hallmark of this bear mkt. We never seem to make higher highs in an intermediate term basis. The tide's going out and we're about to enter the stage where it goes out much faster and doesn't return to the point in the sand where it was (or even close). Anyone who still thinks the market is going to make new highs (after 2 1/2 years of charts that say otherwise) is either deluded or is trying to delude people. Will the market gyrate a little more and come back up to somewhere close to this high in late dec or jan 03 ? Maybe. BUt it won't be higher than 8800 so who cares. If you playing a longer time horizon it doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is that you back up the ole' truck and load up when the time is right --- which is now. The tide's goin out and it ain't comin back in for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodwinked Posted December 5, 2002 Report Share Posted December 5, 2002 Dogboy....Bay of Fundy low tide coming sooner or later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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