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S&p Turning Point


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Greetings,

 

Surely, now that we have reached the neckline at 950 this market is toast! Time to initiate some shorts or do you think we'll get run over by this bull then :D A month ago people were talking about the Dow 5,000 like it was going to happen before year-end. Now they are going to push it above 10,000 again. The level of complacency is baffling, especially in the light of all the geopolitical tension.

 

This rally has got to be one of the greatest bear traps of all time. If all this rally is based on is Wall Street pushing the indices to close their books with minimal losses then they've set themselves up for a hooooorible year 2003.

 

What do you all think will happen next Monday when Iraq has to come up with a complete list of its arsenal? Is George W going to admit to the world that he was wrong about his assumptions regarding Saddam and his weapons of mass destruction? PUUHleeze! It's not even about that. This is about the oil and to position the forces for what may happen if the Saudi kingdom were to fall.

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One more thing...

 

If you think about it - the S&P500 has formed a giant Head and Shoulders pattern with the neckline at 950. Meanwhile the POG has just completed a Cup with Handle formation. We are at the crossroads! What's gonna be the catalyst ??? I bet you it'll be exogenous.

 

Man! I feel like a cup of tea now ;D ;D ;D

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"War is bullish. Everything is bullish. "

 

Not always. The Viet Nam war was certainly not bullish in the end.

 

Being a contrarian thinker I beleive that if the War starts with loads of CONfidence and a rally in the markets then it will end in the complete opposite fashion.

 

To my way of thinking the current poltical and market psychology about the coming war in the ME is an ominous portent.

 

The Gulf War saw the markets in this sequence:

DROP (before)

RALLY (during)

DROP (after)

 

I think that in this one well see the opposite sequence:

RALLY (before - actually this is in progress and all but confirms my theory)

DROP (during)

RALLY (after)

 

But Yo Bullz don't get too excited about that rally (AFTER) cuz it'll be from some frightenenly low level like 3500-4000 on the DOWager. It'll just be an Dover Sole bounce where pros snap up cheap issues.

 

The CONfidence about this war it to optimistic for my taste. I'll take the other side of the bet on this one.

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Guest AssMaster

Perhaps, GB has an even greater carrot in mind for our friends in the area - solving many problems at once. Oil for us, bases for our forces, and (the part they haven't mentioned yet) a new homeland/reservation for the Palestinians right under the watchful eye of the US or UN peacekeeping forces.

 

It's a beautiful thing to watch a plan come together like this. Now, who is gonna put the spanner in the works? It's even more fun to watch it turn sour. :ph34r:

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"solving many problems at once."

 

The problem is those long term trends that all turned in Mar 2000.

 

If this ME war is a smashing success then the Bear Market is over and it will be the first "still born" post-bubble Bear market in all of history.

 

That's what I mean when I say Dubya like AG is fighting powerful long term trends and it's highly unlikely they'll suceed. Actually impossible.

 

This time both charts and fundies confirm each other and they point to a disaster in the ME and collapsing markets.

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A slip-up on the nitely snooze WEEKS ago said that if WMD's weren't found, Bush would use human rights violations as a justification FUR attacking Iraq.

 

Well, the inspectors are rummaging around and not finding anything alarming....YET, anyway, and, shurrrrenuff

nitely snooze is yapping about human rights violations.

 

"According to The Daily Mirror (UK) of Nov. 22, an official of the Bush administration told Members of Parliament (MPs) that Iraq would be attacked even if United Nation?s inspectors found no evidence against Saddam Hussein (in terms of hiding biological, chemical or nuclear weapons). "

 

Wonder if El Quaeda or Al Queada/whatever is going to use DECEMBER 7 the final? day of Ramadan to unleash it's attack.

 

If Shelby is predicting one, he's probably right. Shelby, long ago, said, of deflation: "the sky is shaking". That was in 1995."

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Guest Guest_beardrech

without trying to be a cute contrarian i still think it wise for STOOLIESto take the following scenarios into consideration---

that Bush will conquer Saddam H with relatively few shots being fired--because the paranoidal vortex being built up among SH and his troops grows more intense each day ; being accelerated hourly, with the steady bombardment of leaflets on his totally disloyal and petrifed front line troops who are thinking feverishly about getting the hell out of harms way the munute the s**t hits the fan-- hes like Dolfie in the bunker , and is scheming constantly about fleeing without disgrace--

The other outcome according to my reading of hurst is that no exogenous event (16 major modern historical market influencing events examined) has ever had more than a short term influence on the market--so, for an example ,if no small pox or airborne syphylyis is hurled we'll survive and if they are we'll survive--

I somehow feel that if sh did posess the weapons we think he has we wouldn't go after him--but that hes on his PERFECTING way there is no doubt and with roguish ex-soviet scientists roaming the globe ready to cob any dictators joint for a nickel we've got to take care of business--

meanwhile uncle bear whilly nilly is coming down that chimney tonight---

WAR IS A CRIME! AND THATS WHY THE CRIMINALS MUST BE PUNISHED

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