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It's The Oil Stupid


Guest yobob1

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Guest Guest_beardrech

attention shoppers

The earth is 8000 miles in red hot boiling seething diameter and 25000 barely penetrated crusty circumfrence,literally a ball of material rescources so vast its almost, for all our practical purposes inexhausitible!!!

An example is venezuela's congealed non- moving river-shaped plot of bitumen so vast it could provide all th earths petroleum needs for hundreds of years and thats for openers--

i ama fundamental believer in the perpetual warfare between the logic of production and the logic of finance with this repetitive punch and judy shoe having each one win every 30 years or so-

right now the logic of finance has overwhelmed the logic of production and it will take years to right the madness induced damage-- but the irony will remanin--improvishment surrounded by superabundance only to turn upside down later when im gone to roll around hebben all dee doo dah day

beardrech-- where do I get an avatar

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Resources more than a few thousand feet deep in the crust may as well be on the moon. Oil, diamonds and gold are the exceptions. Oil is feasible because it doesn't require massive excavation to reach. Gold and diamonds are viable in miles deep mines because of their relative value. Can you honestly envision a bauxite or iron ore mine 2 miles deep? (Not to mention the huge problems with working at these depths) Vegetation (think rain forest) such as trees are obviously only a surface feature, so what you see is what you get, though if manaaged properly they can be considered renewable. We haven't managed well. Most of the worlds potable water is well recognized in it's location and quantity. So to say that our resources are inexhasutible is a "Rush Limbaugh" argument.

 

All of these hidden pools of goo may not be of much use to our current consumption ratios. What i mean by that is you can't take a barrel of oil (or goo) an make a barrel of gasoline. Different grades of crude oil produce different ratios of products that can only be adjusted in a minor way. So a huge resevoir of bitumen might be fine if you want an endless supply of bunker oil but may be of little value if you want gasoline. In a similar vein I wonder if all those that advocate diesel engines understand that in order to produce enough diesel if there were a major shift from gasoline to diesel, that we would have to increase the number of refineries we have and probably consume more barrels of oil to produce the diesel demanded. There is a very good reason they are called refineries and not gasoilne (or diesel, kerosene, plastic base) production plants.

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Big money is going to start "flooding" out of dollars, stocks, bonds, and into diminishing resources. Oil, water, metals. That's the game of the future. The power of oil to affect political change and stifle innovation is real, and has been unchallenged for decades. Expect to see oil corporations miraculously come out with an alternative to oil in about 15 years. They have all the infrastructure in place to continue doing what they've always done.

 

In the future it'll be expensive - just how pricey is a mystery. Some say that it can't go higher than the average wallet will allow. Look to the lessons the of the deregulated electrical market in California in 2000 for the answer to this one. When you have a diminished supply and huge demand, and no substitute, the highest bidder wins. Hypertiger's description of the contempt of the elites for the average men will play out once again. The elites (for lack of a better word) are positioning themselves right now to take over ,or at least gain controlling interest in OPEC, to keep prices high, unimpeded. Many Americans think that even if the future Iraqi war is about oil, it's somehow forgiveable because it's to maintain the economic status quo I would be very surprised this is the case.

 

Hyper--Kill or be killed. Liquidation of humanity? Hey, you don't think that's part of the plan, do you? Are they going to turn us into the oil of the future? :P

 

What would Jesus drive?--Funny!

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Guest Guest_beardrech

Yobob

One of the most dangerous forecasts a human being can make is the prdiction of a terminus or an end to technological progress--

 

I am old enough to have seen the end of the days of the commercial use of the horse and wagon and in my childhood witnessed the great dairy barn fire on the lower east side of new york where many many horses died--all this during a period where every so many blocks you had concrete drinking troughs for thirsty horses---all of this amidst the activity of of one of the ,at that time,greatest and most modern commercial centers in the world, New York--

Someone once predicted that,given the equine population of new York city at the time just before i was born,and extrapolating the thundering herd's hoarse shit generating power that we would shortly be hip deep in the same horse leavings and that we would,in the near future,change our name to New York Shitty--

Surprise, along came the automobile and instead of drowning ina sea of shit we began the prolonged agonizing trip on the road to airbore intoxication--

The irony is that every succes leads to its own failure which in turn is replaced by better faster more efficient more terrifyingly rapid advances in every sector of human existence so that when you preface your question with "Can you envision ----------------------(fill in blanks)??? --The answer is Yes,most emphatically yes --the harder question is can you see a time when we will have reached an end to technological progress ? and my melancholy answer is also yes; but only on the condition we destroy ourselves through war!!

Other than that my answer is no!!

 

My confidence is born of the fact that my hands shook the hands of a man born at a time when everything we take for granted wasnt even a dream and my advantage,historically speaking, is that i actually lived at the tale end of what was the end of US primitivism and without that experience one cannot asert what i know with the confidence i have---You had to have been there to believe it

We will run out of aspirin long before we run out of rescources

Beardrech

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One thing I find very interesting is recalling this crackpot on the PrudentBear BB who was always saying the market getting taken down would be blamed on (in his words) "Arabs with AK-47s on goose-stepping camels coming over the Canadian border" and to watch for a "mushroom clouds in Iowa".

 

Everyone thought he was a kook, but in retrospect he was quite prophetic, if not geographically correct - since this was almost 6 months before 9/11.

 

Does anyone out there believe that evil forces would actually encourage, foment or even directly case such an event just to have a scapegoat for all of this? I wonder.

 

By the way, the guy was booted off the BB about two months before the event and never returned. Has anyone heard from that guy since?

 

Just wondering.

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beadrich, before you assume that the increase in technological advances will continue (today is just like yesterday and therefore tomorrow will be like today) you need to step back a little and look at a longer time frame. Technology if graphed is experiencing a "blow-off" top after experiencing a parabolic rise primarily concentrated in the last 150 years. What changed causing this explosion of technology? Energy. What's the primary source of that energy? Oil and it's cousin NG, both of which are for all intents and purposes finite and exhaustible in any meaningful use quantities.

 

Considering the current crop of CEO's, who seem mostly concerned with their own wealth in the short term, do you really think that there is much motivation for worrying about the future 20 years down the road at the executive level? No that will be someone else's problem.

 

There are a lot of days I wish I could just get up, take my Prozack (sp?) and be a good little happy citizen like most of the other Americans. But I can't. Too much has gone dreadfully wrong and I am constantly amazed by those who seem oblivious or place their faith in the belief that "they" will solve the problems. The Titanic is half under and we don't even have a roll of duct tape, but the majority of the passengers are on the fan deck partying assuming the crew will solve the problem.

 

The ultimate resolution may well turn out to be a dramatic population decline. It has happened multiple times throughout history.

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"I am old enough to have seen the end of the days of the commercial use of the horse and wagon ..."

 

Gosh, beardrech. How old are you? Like, 50 or something?

 

"There are a lot of days I wish I could just get up, take my Prozack (sp?) and be a good little happy citizen like most of the other Americans. But I can't."

 

You need to watch more TV, yobob. Everything seems OK in TV-land.

 

:huh:

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"There are a lot of days I wish I could just get up, take my Prozack (sp?) and be a good little happy citizen like most of the other Americans. But I can't. Too much has gone dreadfully wrong and I am constantly amazed by those who seem oblivious or place their faith in the belief that "they" will solve the problems. The Titanic is half under and we don't even have a roll of duct tape, but the majority of the passengers are on the fan deck partying assuming the crew will solve the problem"

 

 

Exactly! It's obvious to anyone who looks at it that we are heading for WWIII with billions in casualties. They cycles are quite apparent. People don't want to believe it's coming. It's a defense mechanism, or something. When I point out things like this oil situation, or the fact that orangutans(Sp?) will be extinct in the wilds in a decade due to us silly humans to my wife, she gets upset at ME for "ruining her day." She doesn't want to know about this stuff. Neither does anyone else. And since these things seem to happen so gradually, the masses(in the West) can go about their lives as if nothing is wrong. The creepy story in the New Testament when Christ talks about the wedding party--the bridegrooms who miss out because they're asleep--is the perfect description of human behavior regarding this topic of oil and water depletion and the mass exterminations that will be the result.

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Don't think WWII, think Viet Nam. The rest of the world is only partly behind the US in this one and will pull out when the sledding gets tough. Then, America will become enmeshed in a multi-year struggle against a poorly defined enemy, with no victory possible fighting civil unrest at home and a weak economy. They'll be no jolly fight songs coming out of this one. I'm not saying this WILL happen, just that if the US keeps going, that's where she'll end up.

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I watch plenty of TV. My favorites are the A & E channel (Armagedeon & Epiphany), MTV (Misery TV), The Comedy Channel (Live broadcast from the floor of the House) and The Hysteria channel. :P

 

Personally when (not if) Bush pulls the trigger in Iraq for Sadam having a hair out of place, I think the US is going to be pretty lonely. It will polarize factions rapidly and most won't find our side very attractive. Oh, we'll get lip service from our "allies" but little else. Phony Tony Blair is going to have an uphill battle with the GB populace once the fur starts flying.

 

They have to do it pretty soon, you can't have a bunch of troops staged indefinitely. 6 months max. After that they lose their "desire", troops have to be rotated and the cost of supporting operations in the field mount and mount. It will happen soon. Any excuse Sadam, any at all. Otherwise we have to make one up. Go ahead serve red wine with that fish.

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The post above is mine. This silly assed board every once in a while doesn't log me in automatically and I fail to notice. Maybe Doc is trying to tell me something. :rolleyes:

 

While nowhere near as old as beadrech, who apparently is somewhere near the century mark, I'm too old to retrain. No better just shoot me...and not with any damn needle either. I hate those things. Put a 357 to my temple and I'll just smile. Pull a needle on me and I'm bouncing off the walls.

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