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B4 The Bell, Tuezelday May 11


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 07:12 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

Bears have the ball, and were on the ball yestreday with their predictions here.
Take note - Doc is raising his hurricane warning flag high today!


Across America, War Means Jobs
Defense Spending Pumps New Life Into Small or Dying Towns

It is impossible to know how many of the 708,000 jobs created in the past three months are defense-related, since the Labor Department does not track defense contractor employment. But anecdotal evidence suggests the contribution is significant.


http://www.washingto...-2004May10.html

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#2 DrStool

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 07:25 AM

Chris Mathews made a point last night that hit me like a brick. The military brass is happy to cooperate in this investigation because they know the scandal goes all the way to the top, and they hate Rummy. He evidently knew about and approved how things were run at the prison, including prisoner interrogation. What Congress is going to want to know is what did Bush really know, and when did he know it. This could be as big, or bigger, than Watergate.

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#3 DrStool

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 07:28 AM

Beginnings of A Bottom

But Much Work To Be Done

Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

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#4

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 07:28 AM

Doc,

Do you 'generally' agree with ths statement :


" The most reliable cycle besides the 4 year cycle , has been the 18 month cycle. Sometimes the 9 month misses, but rarely does the 18 month. The most recent 18 month cycle bottoms going back are as follows. They were all important time frames.
Mar/Apr 2003
Sep/Oct 2001
Mar/Apr 2000
Sep/Oct 1998
Mar/Apr 1997

The next one is due Sep/Oct of this year. Based on action to this point, there is a very good chance the Sep/Oct time frame will be important. "

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 07:30 AM

Bernie Scaeffer just done on Crapvision ..they gave him a whole 5 minutes to go over why he is very bearish.

Heard Prechter was yesterday. Can anyone confirm ?

#6 Henny Penny

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 07:32 AM

The ususal "our sheet dont steenk" (SDS) curtain is being hung up before the show starts ( stock futures UP, Bond UP, Dollar UP, Gold DOWN, Oil DOWN). This is essential to pack people into the theater. Of course when ths curtain opens the real show may look very different.

#7

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 07:33 AM

SOooo, this is the NEW WORLD ORDER........a continueous state of war and

employment-growth ONLY in the ARMAMENTS (service) sector.

Why should anyone TRUST any Machiavellian politicalican, broker or banker......EVER? :unsure: :ph34r: :D

#8 depends

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 07:47 AM

For you Prince fans ... comedy relief

http://www.comedycen...215_prince.html

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 08:05 AM

Doc.....

Last evening the rant was that Mutual Fund holders NEVER sell but ride it out.

I happen to be part of that 1/10000 of 1% that got out rather than ride it out.

The hit was mostly "earnings", but some capital was involved.

No one is ever going to use my sweat, blood and tears ($) without adequate and

just positive compensation. Positive compensation is after commissions, taxes and

inflation.

Who says an old dog cannot learn new tricks? :rolleyes: :D :o

#10 alceringa

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 08:10 AM

Chris Mathews made a point last night that hit me like a brick. The military brass is happy to cooperate in this investigation because they know the scandal goes all the way to the top, and they hate Rummy. He evidently knew about and approved how things were run at the prison, including prisoner interrogation.

And if that is true, which it may well be, then "the brass" had to know also.

If so, their role in the matter is perhaps more dispicable than Rumsfield's. "The brass" is obliged by national law, personal honor and the traditions of military service to refuse to obey any order that is illegal.

Without question, tolerating or encouraging violations of the Geneva Convention for treatment of detainees is illegal and a disgrace to anyone who has ever worn the uniform with pride and integrity.
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
Churchill

"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson

#11 DrStool

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 08:17 AM

Doc,

Do you 'generally' agree with ths statement :


" The most reliable cycle besides the 4 year cycle , has been the 18 month cycle. Sometimes the 9 month misses, but rarely does the 18 month. The most recent 18 month cycle bottoms going back are as follows. They were all important time frames.
Mar/Apr 2003
Sep/Oct 2001
Mar/Apr 2000
Sep/Oct 1998
Mar/Apr 1997

The next one is due Sep/Oct of this year. Based on action to this point, there is a very good chance the Sep/Oct time frame will be important. "

BDK-

I track the 18 month cycle on all charts, both daily and weekly, and it is a critical part of the weekly long term forecast in the Anals each week. It is the most important cycle for long term positioning.

As for regularity and dependability, the normal variance in this cycle is 6-12 months. It is not possible to identify an 18 month cycle low without the appropriate indicator periodicities and cycle envelopes. Time alone is insufficient. A price low and a cycle low are not the same thing. They can occur at the same time, or they may not. An 18 month cycle low usually occurs over a period of two to six months, as the last low did.

What was absolutely clear and unmistakeable was that an 18 month cycle high was occurring in January-April of this year, when bullishness was at its peak. The initial signal on the cycle indicators came in January. What is not clear is the likely timing of the next 18 month cycle low, because the last low covered such a long period, and because of the normal variance in the cycle. September/October is toward the end of the most probable window and is a good guess. So is June, except that the indicators appear to be at least 6 weeks away from a low.

Either way, we have time. Keep in mind that the most dramatic declines come as a cycle is coming into the latter stages of the down phase.

Watch the progress of the 18 month cycle indicators for the market, major market sectors, and leading stocks. Click the link below, and get in RIGHT NOW!

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 08:52 AM

Chris Mathews made a point last night that hit me like a brick. The military brass is happy to cooperate in this investigation because they know the scandal goes all the way to the top, and they hate Rummy. He evidently knew about and approved how things were run at the prison, including prisoner interrogation. What Congress is going to want to know is what did Bush really know, and when did he know it. This could be as big, or bigger, than Watergate.

Agreed.

Still think news is just noise?

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 09:01 AM

QUOTE (DrStool @ May 11 2004, 06:25 AM)
Chris Mathews made a point last night that hit me like a brick. The military brass is happy to cooperate in this investigation because they know the scandal goes all the way to the top, and they hate Rummy. He evidently knew about and approved how things were run at the prison, including prisoner interrogation. What Congress is going to want to know is what did Bush really know, and when did he know it. This could be as big, or bigger, than Watergate.


Check John W. Dean's Worse than Watergate :grin:

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 09:02 AM

Thanks Doc for the detailed response as you do most times in the Anals.

Crapvision Alert !!!
=========

Steve 'Lies' man said 1/2 hour ago that he is 'hearing' that the friday Inflation figure will come in on very low end

I still cant believe he was allowed to say that without expanding but it seemed to me that he trying on behalf of the Matrix to add rocket fuel to the current futures SPX futures situation into Friday when the Infl figue will be HIGh and start the another leg of El Cliffo

OR

Maybe I just watch too much Crapvision -:)

#15 rog

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Posted 11 May 2004 - 09:04 AM

VP Cheney going in today for a "routine" check of his pacemaker. Lots of chatter that he may run into some health problems before the Repub conv. So that shruby can distance himself from some of VPs political baggage and to put in a viable succesor. Condie and Colin are the favorites at this point. FWIW





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