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Mark's Thread For The Weak End


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Something appears to be up-The fair value numbers-usually posted Friday evening are nowhere to be found-the pricks have done this before when the markets are in trouble-at Fridays close the Futures indexes were all at a substantial discount to cash which means they should be considerably under fair value-but convenietly we don't know what fair value is?? But then there is no honour among thieves-right! Trade Safe!

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Looks like we are at the start of a bull market and the yellow line in the snow was busted upwards this past week. ?Call me a fence sitter since I didn't jump onboard, got splinters in my butt. ?If the parabolic move ever comes back to earth some, I will jump on. ?If not, oh well. ?There's always a bull market in something else, just got to find it...

Slinger,

 

I know you've been cautious on calling the Gold Bull, but don't worry,

it's just getting started... What's more, gold stocks have hardly moved

while the yellow metal has surged. There's still time to position yourself

to benefit from the giant shift from a financial economy to a real economy.

post-7-1043625528_thumb.jpg

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Peter Lynch is buying. I'm sure he's thinking long term, and based on historical market fluctuations. He steered clear of the bubble, so it's interesting he thinks there are things worth going long on now, especially internet stocks. Personally I think he's early, but 3-5 years out he might look like he played it smart. Or is he a relic of outdated thinking?

 

http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/23/funds/lynch/index.htm

Mr. Lynch was in the right place at the right time. His career started at the beginning of a secular bull market powered by the huge boomer demographic bubble. His good luck is being confused with skill. The 80's and 90's are in no way comparable to the coming decade. The boomers are in decline and the market is discounting this. If the stock market was flat for sixteen years (66 to 82) before discounting the rise of the boomers, how much hope should one have for a secular bull in our near future. Mr. Lynch's luck is running out. :P

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In a down trend, oscillators will show over sold for extended periods and in an up trend oscillators will show over bought. In a strong trending market whether up or down sheeple will always want to buy or sell. Oscillators become worthless in a strong trending market. They will signal a change about to come in a strong trending market by showing divergence signals.

 

In a strong trending market, the adx is king. It is a trend following indicator. This is what the adx lives for. Over 20 and you have a strong trend brewing. Once above 40, be cautious trends will usually end and the adx will turn signaling the trend is weakening. Expect sideways to lower prices. This is when the oscillators come in and you should have been looking for divergence signals signaling a trend change is near. Once the trendline has been violated you better exit or reverse position.

 

Futures are up now and nothing significant yet.

 

Rayok:

 

I agree, Lynchberg was lucky. Now they say he is buying, I?m sure he is using other peoples money not his own. This is just another ploy to keep the sheeple in, if it is good enough for lynchberg, must be good enough for the sheeple. What fools! These morons will try anything to steal the sheeples money and convince everything will be fine.

 

Yes, everything will be fine in about 10-years. We had 10 up now we will see 10 down at least.

 

The market now is a secular bear and all of these so called," Market Profits," will be history.

 

It will be a glorious day when these crooks end up behind bars with bubba. It will give new meaning to soap on the rope.

 

CYA

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U2 S4B

 

I passed on the fireworks this year, heard 'em loud and clear from my place though. Hope you're right re market - looking forward to some long awaited action..

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For the full scoop follow the stink http://www.newsmax.com

 

Federally Insured Pensions Under Assault

 

NewsMax Staff

Monday, Jan. 27, 2003

 

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, an agency that insures the pensions of some 44 million Americans, has depleted its entire $8 billion surplus in one year, according to a report in the New York Times.

 

The agency that protects the retirement incomes in more than 35,000 private defined benefit pension plans reportedly can continue to make its current payments, but is expected to disclose a deficit of $1 billion to $2 billion at the end of this month.

 

When a plan insured by the PBGC is terminated without enough assets -- usually owing to a company?s bankruptcy -- the agency takes over the plan and pays benefits according to limits set by federal law. At present the agency is allowed under law to pay a maximum of $3,579.55 a month or $42,954.60 a year.

 

The rough going for the agency has become even more turbulent as more and more bankrupt companies default on retirement plans pledged to present and future retirees.

 

More of this to come. This will be the scam of scams.

 

CYA

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