Guest Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 Hey 27, Isn't that the lead singer of that group "Smashing Bumpkins"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 I'm Glad we can still have fun here on the weak-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 Rich, Your spx chart shows an inverted H&S pattern that would portend a move to 1052 spx, if fullfilled. I don't see it. Here's the S&P inverted. If I were short this configuration I'd be covering. I think it's going up on this opposite world chart which is really down. :wink2: Looking at it again I see that "W" configuration the bulls talk about. Too bad the charts upside down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 Here Rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 What I need is 850 on the S&P quickly. What I want is 550 on the S&P. This one is for you. I hope you can settle. Think of it like dating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auntie Septic Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 Do I contribute to a 401k? Of course. Great way to lower the tax bite. Max it out every year. At the low, if I'm still employed, it will be put to work. Do I contribute to a 401k? Yup. Used to max it out, but got tired of trying to game my choice of 8 Fidelity funds for a decent gain. Taking the Will Rogers approach -- not concerned with return on investment, just want return of investment. Now I contribute only enough to max out my employer's match, in Fidelty gubmit money market, and use the excess to pay off the mortgage and effectively earn a guaranteed 4% immediately. I wish I could get all my money out and convert it to gold without having to pay tax on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 Here Rich. Ah yes. The S&P has it's head up it's arse. Sorry I've been staring at too many charts. Head and Shoulder Formations These formations occur at market tops and inverse head and shoulder formations at bottoms. They frequently tell of the reversal of the trend. Occasionally they fail; their very failure foretells of continuation of the trend but usually on a structurally less sound foundation. To avoid being fooled by the market and the price chart pay particular attention to the associated volume. It must have the following volume characteristics. The development of the left shoulder should be accompanied by the heaviest volume, diminish on its completion and then expand again on development of the head. This second surge of volume is usually less than that during the development of the left shoulder. Volume then contracts and this decreased volume should persist throughout the development of the right shoulder and then expand as an increase of selling make itself evident on collapse of the right shoulder and downside violation of the neckline. This represents the selling of hopes unrealized when prices failed to reach their previous high. The smart money has completed distribution to the unsuspecting. Similar volume characteristics accompany the inverse head and shoulders formation of bear market bottoms. Heavy volume on the development of the left shoulder and head, declining volume on development of the right shoulder with an increase of volume on the breakout above the neckline. When prices failed to reach the previous low, observant investors take up early accumulative positions, willingly buying from fleeing, uninformed, disillusioned holders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 End - you never answered my Neely question - couldn't this "failed fifth" we are in last for years and years and still be a failed fifth? I am not comforted that I might have to wait 3-5 more years for a failed fifth to fail before the world ends...dammit let's just get on with it already I DIDN'T SAY NO FILTH FLARN FILTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 Hyper, I have not thought about this but, I bet you have. What if we were to go back on the gold standerd. I understand it would mean we would have to pull back on the money supply first but, can it be done? and what are it's implications in your opinion? TIA. TE The US does not have enough gold to pay for imported energy...The gold standard would only work if the US became self suficient... If a 50-100 million or so cut in poulation were to happen It might work... just a guess. Basically if compound interest charged on money created out of nothing was eliminated a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt would have a very hard time forming... running out of food or oil can be a shock... But the single biggest cause of a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt or the contraction of the money supply is the inability of consumers to consume debt... The Great depression was a time when there was plenty of everything except debt consumers...What we have now is the maxout point or maximum potential for consumers to consume debt being reached... The crash of 29 was caused buy the fed when they stopped providing overnight lending for margin...Everyone was forced to sell. the system was not even close to maximum potential... I read a story a few months back that said the fed had "Learned it's lesson from the great depression and won't make that mistake again" I think it was Ben Bernake... Now they will take it to the maximum potential with state of the art super computers... It won't be pretty when this ends... Over 50% of the US population depends on compound interest for their existence...Not to mention the rest of the world invested in the US... The Banks have an ability to create unlimited amounts of debt but consumers only have a finite ability to borrow it. thats the problem right now. But all the buzz in various economic circles is a return to the gold standard...once the smoke clears and order is restored of course... My 7-11 months timetable if it holds up means that at some point in the next 7-11 months the evidence of doomsday will become aparent to us at capitalstool...The debate will be over and I will be done at that point...There will be nothing more to say. Then we will just watch as the whole bs smoke and mirrors show implodes... Just have to face facts that for the past 23 years rates have dropped on average of 83 basis points per year to inflate debt and that method is about to end...or has ended for the most part... Plain and simple the rates have to drop forever to continue civilization as we know it functioning, to keep producing the tomorrow is going to be just like today effect. As long as consumers can keep borrowing from next week/month/year to produce today we are ok but when they borrow tomorrow there will be no future... no tomorrows left. That's why everyone is borrowing like there's no tomorrow, because soon there won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 Deep Blue - here's a thought for you....in economics theory, it is held, if I am not mistaken, that the greater the propensity to save, the lower will interest rates be, as all that rentable (rentabulous? you look mahvelous) "capital" fistfights with each other for the right to be put to work in some investment/project somewhere or something. Sort of like sperms crawling over each other trying to get to the egg ANYWAY the point is, if this old economic saw is TRUE, then how the hell do we have rock bottom interest rates and nobody saves a flipping dime? ANSWER because the fractional reserve banking/economic system completely and totally distorts the whole idea that one man's savings is another's capital if the two can agree on an interest rate and terms. The system doesn't NEED anybody to save a gaddamn thing The system needs everyone to go out and borrow to the MAX (entre Hyper-tigre meow!) THEREFORE, what the world needs is frigging COLLATERAL, not SAVINGS someone hurry up and build a few million more mcmansions woodja? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 Hyper - what's the dilly-o with the the Alberta Oilsands? My dad (works in turbomachinery equipment industry that supplies natgas and oil markets) sez they are cutting back investment due to Kyoto protocol? risk and profit... There is alot of oil up there but the investment in infrastructure to produce what they are doing now took decades...Plus oilmen think there is a limitless supply of oil...by the time a crisis shows up it will be too late to take years to ramp up production. An oilman walks in the office and says "Are we bankrupt yet?" no... "Did the oil run out?" no... "I'm going to play golf"...see you this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 All that is needed is an excuse of some sort to adopt "unconventional" economic measures - the printing up of greenbacks (out of nothing) by the Treasury, rather than FRNs created from debt by the Fed. Simple. Also, IMVHO anyone on this site who has not read both "The Prize" and "Tragedy and Hope" or something similar to them has no business pontificating about oil, world politics or international banking conspiracies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 All that is needed is an excuse of some sort to adopt "unconventional" economic measures - the printing up of greenbacks (out of nothing) by the Treasury, rather than FRNs created from debt by the Fed. Simple. And how does that fix anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 And how does that fix anything? It solves the problem of needing people and businesses to sign up on the dotted line for credit in order for the Fed to create money supply. It delinks money supply from credit creation, which is the mechanism for the HT collapse scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted July 21, 2003 Report Share Posted July 21, 2003 I understand that. Do you really think that "they" will be any better at managing a completely unanchored fiat money system than they are a debt-backed system? To me it just guarantees a hyperinflation before the ultimate collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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