The Derivatives Tornado

[Oilman]

I would like to see a chart, or a fundamental analysis to support yr assertion.

TIA.

 

success!

gruff.

Hello Gruff,

 

I am a position trader(Trading account is small) and I will hold until stopped out (My stops are not tight). The major indicators that I use are the 21 day moving average on the put/call ratio, vix, and extreme conditions (up to intepatation) as we have seen now. I have done well doing this, but this round I lost major coins.

 

We are at extreme conditions and with Friday's reversal, this will scare the crap out of the bulls. Also, Da Boyz is good at this game and I have seen this so many times to draw in the bulls and bears in the last 3 years. Mind you, that If next week is not a negative week, I will be stopped out for sure--Never listen to a man losing money. I am learning everyday and an amater.

 

Don't mind me, as my knowledge on trading is small compare to others here. I am just blowing off steam and most of all just hoping once I position myself.

 

Oilman

[brian4]

Everyone and I mean everyone expects a shallow pull back and then a blast off! Everyone on this bear board save a few is bullish or whimpering-few bears are left to provide fuel-and yet the technical damage done on friday was significant can anyone spell gravestone Doji?? We are in overbought extremes never seen in the Spoo's-good enuff for me-say goodnight Dick and turn out the lights-trade Safe!

[richmtn]

Three cycles HUI chart.

41 day (not shown): Up

82 day: Down

164 day: Up

123 day: Down

All have recently turned or are doing so now.

Vertical lines are nominal cycles

Indicators are color coded

 

Rich says it's too confusing for him. I expect volititality to continue.

[TheMotleyStool]

That one I agree with. But most of us "bears" are dead already anyway. Can't kill us twice. There's a crash coming, and I am willing to risk the pittance I have left on that belief.

Doc,

 

I sure hope you are being playful. I followed your advice about "leverage kills" and moved from RYVNX to BEARX months ago. That really saved my backside. I'd hate to think you ignored your own advice and didn't use safe money management.

[Guest]

Anybody else still pissed off??

Yep but next time I'll be ready :grin:

 

And Wndy regarding your earlier comment re "poor Doug"[Noland] .... I don't think his slant is to do the market guidance thing. He's just documenting the whole sorry show maybe with the idea of putting a book together after the implosion. He hints at that in his latest writeup :

 

"The public will deserve an honest explanation, and future generations should have the benefit afforded a forthright and accurate historical record."

 

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

[Oilman]

Leverage kills and I do not use them at all. I do not mind getting rich slowly--I don't want to be out of the game losing all my money early either.

 

This board is awesome especially on the weekend when most of us are clearing our heads and planning for the week ahead.

 

Thanks everyone and of course Doc. As long as this board is up, I will be a member and support it.

 

Oilman

[BarBu]

Mathias - German Ewaver - had projected 1300 NDX as top of correction.

Mathias made his A-B-C call since 2002 winter, his call is right on in terms of the time he made his call.

 

The current gap between NDX and Nas is 414, assumes the gap remains a constant, NDX 1300 would be Nas 1714.

 

The vertical displacement between last high 2098 (Spring 2002) to last low 1108 (Oct 2002) is 990, a 0.618 rebounce would bring Nas back to 1108+0.618*990 = 1719.

[Fukui-san]

...

Pollution due to rapid industrialization is hardly unique to China.

One more example, with pictures:

 

Centralia Pennsylvania no longer exists on some maps

 

 

 

edit: hmm, not so much rapid industrialization as slow stupidity, but an interesting story in any case

I've heard of the multi-decade coal fires, but never seen pictures.

Amazing.

 

If it wasn't for that nearby town, one might consider bringing in some geothermal power generation experts from Iceland and see if they could adopt their technology to generate power.

[Guest AssMaster]

Say what you want about seasonality (and the Bradley model) - but following them would have spared both bears and bulls much pain. And you know that the bottoming of the four year cycle will produce the most significant bear market rally of all we have seen so far.

 

Nov - May is for going long and letting profits run. Short only in severely overbought conditions on individual stocks with tight stops taking profits quickly.

 

June - Oct is for going short and letting profits run. Long only in very Dover Sole conditions on individual stocks with tight stops and taking proifits quickly.

 

Even in a bear market.

 

By July 2nd we will have had our one year bull phase, and the fun can begin again.

[K Wave Rider]

I'd like to address a couple of points made by K-Wave, whose opinion, I along with everyone else around here, I hope, have the highest respect for.

 

 

 

KWave referred to the 24% retracement level. This was a fact I brought up when I first addressed the issue of bubble retracements back in March. ?What's different this time is time, as I showed in the Nukieu- Gold Nasduck comparison chart I ran in last week's Weak End Anals. The time element is now essentially identical to the times in which both the gold and Nikkei recoveries topped out. ?

 

 

 

 

 

Actually, once the initial bubblebust recovery tops out, they almost always go all the way back to the laucnh point, or below, within months. Even the Dow 1932 blastoff, had an 80% retracement and that WAS a real bear market bottom. ?

Doc,

 

I agree that we are near timewise to a top. We just have not acheived the price target yet. I only expect another 4 to 5 weeks of rally if we take out Fridays's high. But those 4 to 5 weeks could very well take us to the price retracement level in a final wave of bearish capitualtion, especiallly on on some of those NAZ stocks with very high short interest levels.

 

I expect that the levels acheived on the final thrust will not be exceeded by much, even if we end up chopping sideways for years before plunging to new lows.

 

 

As far as being equivalent to the 32 blastoff, I feel that the NAZ is much more equivalent to the the Dow of Jun 1933, well AFTER the 80% retrace you speak of. See Dow and Nikkei charts here. Notice that we are now above a rising 10,20 and 50 week MA on the NAZ, just as the Dow was in the summer of 33 and the Nikkei was in 93. Also note that the 10 and 20 have just crossed the 50 and are still spreading out.

 

While it is possible we could totally collapse from here, I make the vast majority of my trading profits trading off of moving average configurations, and this particluar configuration is generally a pretty crappy one for being short, especially in light of the other technical indicators that I use which show no signs of rolling over yet for the intermediate term.

 

I'm not trying to be a pain in the arse. I just strongly feel that it is too early to get aggressively short. I think July will provide a much better entry. But of course, I could be wrong, and if so will adjust my plan accordingly.

[Guest BEARDRECH]

WOoooooooooooWWWWWWWWWWZzzzzzzzzaaaaaaaaa

 

Hey Icky like your style buddy:

"The merciless indifferent, implacable culling is set to begin."

 

bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahaahahahahhahahahaha

 

say I think a while back, maybe a long while back, I stated that we stoolies HAD to remain flexible- that learning Chinese if one had to was just par for the course in the game of life and money.  Anybody with super search functions out there, I would be muy thankful if you could locate that old post. tia

 

also for those wondering why Al stopped the feed, consider that above 3.25 yield on the Ten- AL is betting the come. Below 3.25 he's on the "no pass" line. bwahahahhahahahahahahahhahahahahahahhaa

 

Wave the wand King Paper!!!- bwahahahahahhahahahhaahahahahaha

 

whoa- anybody catch Insana on Friday "outing" the Cleavland Fed's missives about taxing savings, running the presses in overdrive and the rest?  This is GE we're talking about folks, if Insana can get a pass to relate info like this to the sheep- hold onto your hats!!!!!!

 

mmmmmmmmmm  smoked pork- barbque pork- roast pork- mmmmmmm

bwahahhahahahahhaahhahahaahhaahhahaahhaahhahhahahahahaha

 

hey B4, welcome back one true!

 

as an aside - speaking of deflation- yesterday I went to Lord and Taylor and purchased $395 worth of Merino wool polos, slacks and beautifully tailored oxford shirts fro a grand total of $48.88!!!!  this ain't Target folks, this here is Lord and Taylor's Men's Wear at Deerfield Mall.  One of the most tony suburbs in all America.  Look out Below!!!!!

 

getting ready for the Cubs Yankees at Wrigley- I'll be sure to have Chicago Style Hot Link just for the stool!!! mmmmmm mmm that there is good eatin'.

 

is that a bird hit by a rock?

 

oh no, its just IBM.

 

bwhahahahahahaha

 

stay nimble stay focused and hey smoke 'em,

 

so says I,

 

MERCILESS

merci

does an old west side open aired pit-barbecue joint and famous mafia cheepeetery by the name of Scala beef still exist ? And if it does, what do they charge for a sandwich?--

Believe it or not, about 10 years ago maybe more maybe less an ex fighter pilot opened up a scala beef store near the university of maryland calling it hawthorne something?

I got invited to a demo at his aprtment introducing an ipo-and so inlove wtith the Scala was i that i forced friends to attend ,saying, this was going to be the most sensational success ever-especially with the college crowd--

We went; we tasted; and yep it was almost aas good as Chi-scala--no i didnt invest-Good as it was i remebered the scource-

Within weeks the place opened, and upon going in ,sure enough ,except for the nostalgia at seeing Vienna hot dog signes, the taste of the scala in the store was as remote from Chi as the man in the moon--Just like pizzeria Unos Dues and new york bagles, all of the good stuff loses in translation--

I cant understand the perpetual inabiliity to conquer the taste barrier created by a few miles in space--if someone does learn a fortune is to be made---

 

:grin: bdrech

p.s. i was instructed by my old man,never reveal the price you paid for an item--he had a shtik--whenever a guy would approach him and for example extend his wrist with a watch as big as the ritz he would ask assaultively--Hey louie,you wanta know what i paid for this clock? My pop would look him square in the face and say ,Yeh,tell me! Displalying the bejeweled watch and stating something like thirteen thousand dollars ( it could have been higher or less who knows?) --My father,with inner sarcasm would look at it intently as if it warranted the interest of the hope diamond and after awhile woulf look up andfacing the Watch guy-say absent any irony in has voice--ITS WORTH IT

aLSO THANKS FOR TH ELORD & tAYLOR TIP-MAYBE ILL POP OVER -IM TIRED OF GOOD WILL they still give me rotten service-and ive decided to shop for my daughters wedding gown elsewhere-----

[On The Beach]

Everyone and I mean everyone expects a shallow pull back and then a blast off! Everyone on this bear board save a few is bullish or whimpering-few bears are left to provide fuel-and yet the technical damage done on friday was significant can anyone spell gravestone Doji?? We are in overbought extremes never seen in the Spoo's-good enuff for me-say goodnight Dick and turn out the lights-trade Safe!

Not everyone. Began gradual rentry of core short of ETFs originally covered on 3/10.

 

'Whimpering' in Brac...eating toast.

[BAREister]

Fuki San, u are INCORRECT.

 

The BARE is FURom Ohio.

 

The river that caught FUR was SNOT the Ohio River, as you allege. It was, rather, the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, that drains into Lake Erie.

 

The Great Lakes have made a remarkable comeback. It's fish, however, are toxic, as are many large fish that swim in the ocean.

[Fukui-san]

Fuki San, u are INCORRECT.

 

The BARE is FURom Ohio.

 

The river that caught FUR was SNOT the Ohio River, as you allege. It was, rather, the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, that drains into Lake Erie.

 

The Great Lakes have made a remarkable comeback. It's fish, however, are toxic, as are many large fish that swim in the ocean.

 

Thanks for correcting me.

 

However, you're a bit late to the party, as this has already been pointed out.

 

Do you remember the "boy wonder" Dennis J. Kucinich as the Mayor of Cleveland?

I didn't realize that he made it back into politics. As a Congressman no-less.

[BAREister]

Hi there BARE!

if you enter my actual name in quotation marks in google along with the phrase, "biological weapons," you'll bring up reference to the professional paper I delievered on the topic in the late-1990s after several years of study and before anyone else really cared. If I recall, that paper contains the memorable (and then, outrageous) suggestion that, "Biological weapons promise to dominate and define the post-cold war era as nuclear weapons had the cold war era." I stand by that.

 

Jimi

 

Nature will devise one anyway in the next decade or two if we keep procreating the way we have been. Too many people for the global ecosystem to withstand. We've nearly ruined it in the past 50 years as it is - the papers this past week have a story about how 90% of the largest fish in the seas are now gone, FUR example. This despoilation has occurred in the name of profits, capitalism and free markets and there's nothing short of pandemic capable of stopping it's remorseless continuation.

 

oh. Charley Rose interviewed HRFF's old Princeton professor of Soviet Politics, Stephen Cohen last week. Cohen says the primary country for causing WMD headaches in future will be RUSSIA. BARE agrees.