brian4 Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 Gruffy- Tee-he-- and I hope it's a tee-hee! Look I admire Pee's efforts and that of his daughter. I Chaired our local School Board for 5 years- and typical was Johnny only carried the knife cause he was scared or Henry is only BAD because he has attention deficit syndrome or Jack is a BULLIE only because he gets too much sugar or Sam only kicked the kid in the head because he forgot to take his pill. A large part of our problem is because we dwell too much about people who are BAD to the BONE and try to put these square pegs in round holes to our mutual detriment-trade safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 B4, i plead with my parents to sell their properties,but i have become like chicken little to them and i have been saying that for the last 3 yrs and prices have only gone higher,they will only learn the hard way i suppose....might be too late already,they tried to auction their townhouse last week without success,but who knows when it will end,the numbers out the last week regarding new house starts etc, in the US, dont show any signs of a slowdown,infact they seem to be excellerating. Gruff-furphy=common misconception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 completely off-topic. went with my youngest selling advert space for the middle school play. the local and multi-store regional businesses, although perhaps less prosperous, were very recepetive to a $50 advert in the play guide. WMT kicked in and Sams Club apparently wants the whole back page - they generously bought it last season too. other companies are just mortifying. SBUX basically said no, although they would have donated coffee, except they have committed all their donations for this month. geez, what would 2 lbs of coffee have run them - but, i guess they wanna save the rain forrest anyway - definitely more PC. believe me, ill think twice before swinging into my usual SBUX on my twice weekly drive to l.a. the asswipe award goes to soup plantation who did not splurge 50 bucks for the ad space, but did donate a coupon for 12 free cookies. TWELVE WHOLE COOKIES (almost 2 bucks if memory serves me correctly). whats the point? the point is COMMUNITY is reciprocal and it takes a hell of a lot of work to put on a skool play. this may be indicative of a mindset on a much grander scale, although this may be a stretch. BTW, its great practice for your kids to cold-call on businesses and learn alot about sales, human nature and perserverance. Well, as anyone on the front line of a business can tell you, the non stop stream of panhandlers and tincuppers can literally eat you out of house and home. Everyone has a good cause that must be supported. I see absolutely no good lessons to be learned except dependency on others for your own ego trip or need to do good work. We're teaching a whole new gereration to be beggers and accept crumbs instead of being self-relient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 Pee brain, My take on the charity type scene here in OZ is that it has been hijacked by unscrupulous commercial types,very aggressive and dubious linkage to good causes,lots of organizations like the Firefighters association who are not linked in any way to the actual fire brigade,lots of shite like that,so perhaps i am just very cynical and not as trusting.Most of them are just scams,i wouldnt let my kids cold call business in this day and age,most people in business around here have signs to discourage hawkers and for good reason.In fact the newest scam is door to door selling paintings and toys and they get quite aggressive when you tell them you are not interested. I have 3 teenage boys and a 9 yr old daughter so i know how much pride and joy comes from the sort of involvment you are talking about,it just shits me when people use the residual goodwill of parents who are involved in their kids lives and try to exploit them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 Same here in SoCal. People have gone completely mad with consumer spending. See no sign of abatement, pullback, etc. Buying frenzy is now higher than it was in 1999 - 2000. socal isn't nocal fer that matter, i think folks from mojave might have a different view too i don't argue the point that many (not all) of the large metros are still frenzied; i'm just saying that that ain't the whole country...or society. obviously....since if it was, we'd have GDP of....7.2% !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gruff Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 Bri: it was a tee-hee. I agree... too many excuses for slackers! Interestingly, here in Belgium (and in France) it is 'common practice' to scrounge a fag. I'm not talking about beggars... just 'common folks'... will often ask for a cig. We always supply one if we can. Again, (like beer machines) it's a cultuRal difference to anywhere I've lived before, and I rather like it Bris: tanks for definition of 'furphys' Success! gruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 In many cases, debt itself is neither deflationary nor inflationary as high liabilities also imply high assets in an economy. It is just the dynamics and the psychology which will lead to inflation or depression. The crucial point is that as long as money savers and lenders think their money is safe, they will not ask for the money - allowing debt to grow ad infinitum. When the crucial point is reached where money savers/lenders get nervous, they will ask for the return of their money. Consequently, we will see a devaluation/higher interest rates, inflation,... This is exactly the point why policy makers are so keen to talk up currencies, play down trade deficits and inflation and oil price increases. It is more an issue about credibility than the level of debt. For example, a high gold price would also undermine this credibility. This also explains governmental obsession to keep the gold price down through central bank manipulation. The situation is especially meaningful for the US economy - as savings are mostly outside the country and the US government has to convince foreign savers to hold their dollars. .....There is just one cardinal function of debt level: it increases volatility. The higher the debt load, the higher the risk and impact of a severe crisis - when savers/lenders lose their patience through a confidence crisis provoked by currency devaluation and/or inflation. a couple year old link but interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 its about community. So, you figure a business that charges higher prices, and gives some back to the community, is more socially responsible than a business that supports it's community by providing a product at the lowest possible price? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 Nice chart Gruff! I added my two cents worth in the blue. Think the DOW is ready to bust upward? Sure does look that way, at least in the short term view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 B4, i plead with my parents to sell their properties,but i have become like chicken little to them and i have been saying that for the last 3 yrs and prices have only gone higher,they will only learn the hard way i suppose....might be too late already,they tried to auction their townhouse last week without success,but who knows when it will end,the numbers out the last week regarding new house starts etc, in the US, dont show any signs of a slowdown,infact they seem to be excellerating. Gruff-furphy=common misconception brisbane, myself, i'm real careful using "starts" as an indicator at this particular time. "starts" does not mean "sold". in the town about 20 mi from me, they finished a large "spec" (speculative) development....maybe 400 houses...about 4 mos ago. only a fraction are sold yet....perhaps 20% ?? in this area a year prior, they would've all been sold before the last one was taped and mudded. in the middle of a multi-year 'normal' market, i'd believe in "starts". but we're in that last incredibly rapidly accelerating up-gasp; right before the plunge....just like march2k. so starts ain't squat. houses are like any other WIP (work-in-process) inventory. there's gonna be LOTS of surplus inventory being hawked at a discount real soon. half-finished washing-machines....circuit-board assemblies for some widget-company or other who bellied up....tons upon TONS of unrecognizable parts, machined to high precision at the greatest expense....sold at scrap prices...pennies a pound.....100K piece lots of IC's, capacitors, relays, etc... i've bought and sold this stuff (surplus elex and mech) as a side-income for 30 years. over the past 6 mos, i've begun getting inundated with inventory-lists to bid on. "make offer" they say anyway, that's MY sophisticated fancy-pants TA leading-indicator; and since housing is the largest industry left today, it doesn't surprise me that they're being over-produced on speculation of future riches, in the last, pitiable, run-up to the climax. "record" car sales in august, sept, whatever....right? did you know that the big-3 have rented dozens of fairgrounds etc. around Detroit to store excess inventory? i think it's something like 150 THOUSAND excess vehicles sitting there... uhh....i've already been enjoying some quality friday-night time...so someone else do the math ok? 150K x 25K = $xx,xxx,xxx,xxx.xx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Icky Twerp Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 Dozer - That explains the frantic pace of low-end spec-house building out here, way past "keeping the crews busy" to a point where I was trying to do math like yours figuring out how they were making the monthly nut on these dogs...apparently they have a tame "rental" agency that buys them and rents them out... Also, there is this huge new 18-wheeler-tractor sales place out on the highway near my house...like overnite, so many of these trucks were parked out in rows on the grass there it looked like the truck-version of the abandoned plane graveyard out in arizona...Understand the population of this little lakeside burg is 2000, max...either he's moving 50 of those big trucks a month, or else, they're just moving them around on the lots...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 "Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce. And when we realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by a few very powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate." U.S. President James Garfield. A few weeks after making this statement, he was assassinated on July 12, 1818. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 "... as high liabilities also imply high assets in an economy." shorty, i nodded my head to a lot of what you said, but the above line raised an eyebrow here.... i don't believe that's correct. add the word "sometimes"....or "might"...and i'd be ok with it. take this POS market (please! ) someone went waaayyyy out on a margin limb to buy 10k of Intel at 40 bucks. so now there's a huge debt. where's the high asset ? i KNOW you don't believe those spIntel shares are worth 40 bucks !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 Like Mh -I have been THERE- he like i don't wanna talk about it but He like We knows what a crock of shit it is! Our sins are being revisited stay SHORT! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Short'em High Posted November 22, 2003 Report Share Posted November 22, 2003 Evening Stooltowners, Mark, in the words of Johnny Carson, "that's some funny stuff". Tchai, nice lyrics! Brian4, always good to hear your familiar growl. Gruff, Feed, et al nice charts. Encouraging action this week pointing to last week Friday am as the high for the move. Change in trend should be shortly followed with an early retrace (the Ewavers Wave 2). If we get a decent retrace, it will be the best shorting opportunity of the year. It has been an excrutiating wait to trade on the short side, but we just may see a true Short'em High moment. When it arrives, I'm hauling out the Vulcan like Arnold in Predator. SEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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