ChicagoBear Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Thimk weekly, Jick. Nothing fancy here, and nothing to see, yet. As Lee Wheeler would have said, "In the entertainment zone." Been watching Copper for hints of a global economic slow-down. So far it's not showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Thimk weekly, Jick. Nothing fancy here, and nothing to see, yet. As Lee Wheeler would have said, "In the entertainment zone." Been watching Copper for hints of a global economic slow-down. So far it's not showing. 693220[/snapback] Great chart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokahay Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 If they want to put a floor under the housing market why not let people take money tax free out of their 201K's? if it is to be used to pay off mroutgage debt.Would that be too easy? 693219[/snapback] No kidding, I was thinking that a little as well. It's only going to vaporize anyway. I am going to guess it would drive down markets because why the hell not do it. Especially tax or penalty free. But if you had to pay it back in again. Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astral mike Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Thimk weekly, Jick.? Nothing fancy here, and nothing to see, yet. As Lee Wheeler would have said, "In the entertainment zone."? Been watching Copper for hints of a global economic slow-down.? So far it's not showing. 693220[/snapback] have you looked at Zinc ? or Nickel ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 The House GOP bailout plan calls for selling insurance on the bad paper. How about selling insurance on Galveston homes today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Gentlemen, I would like to present to you, the new Masters of the Universe. At some point in the not too distant future shares in all of these companies are going to be the buy of a lifetime. You will be able to buy 'em, put 'em away and just watch them smash through hundred dollar mile markers (on a pre split basis) to the upside. 693170[/snapback] Some could argue they bottomed in mid-July. ...whether they test the lows or go lower yet is still to be decided... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Jickiss, I really admire your tenacity when it comes to gold. I think you have to be a 'true believer' to be able to stay the course. Not many can stay the course. It is akin to riding a tiger. I am sure you will be right in the end. Getting to the end will be very hard. I suspect gold bulls will have their faith tested like never before. In the meantime,guys like Marc Faber seem luke warm at best on gold and commodities. He thinks it may go back to $600 where it would be a compelling long term buy. I suspect they will get this $700 billion thru in some cobbled form. It will be enough to get the 'election year' rally running. Gold and commodities will be whacked. Then early next year,the big deflationary drop will hit, taking everything down together. Then real assets like gold ,Oil and commodities will rally for years. Agri commodities will do real well as well. I would be hoping to buy a house early next year. Thats my thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 The gold chart is a coin toss. On the one hand, we bounced-off an Dover Sole condition and have churned for two days above the 80 & 50dma. It looks like a beach-ball recovery and a possible flag-pole. On the other, we?re 4 weeks after the black cross (50dma under 200), and gold hasn?t recovered the 200dma. This could also be a set-up for another move lower. I?ve pointed it out before ? gold is moving according to events and their effects on confidence. I got sucked-in when gold started moving back in July, before Paulson put the FNM/FRE promise on the table. You can put tacks on the gold chart and see the downturns clearly happening according to actions that restore confidence in the financial system. Well, this weekend is the grand-daddy of them all (so far). I agree with your Jickiss who smells the gold smack-down next week. They will hit the tubes this weekend and proclaim victory and shake hands and wave the pom-poms. The market will probably pop and gold will get the back-hand. The question becomes, then, will the confidence last? If it does, then gold is probably over for a while. If confidence falls soon after, then I could imagine the Jickiss rocket launch. Actually, I?m pulling for the gold a$$-blast scenario. After thinking seriously about dumping some GLD today, I decided to hold and try to add next week (depending on how events play out). I?ll even dong some DGP with your Jickiss. But don?t buy until you see the fear in their eyes! Watch those 3-month yields for clues. And don?t write-off the idea that gold can?t go down! It all depends on confidence, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dharmaeye Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 have you looked at Zinc ? or Nickel ? 693223[/snapback] Wave 2 bottoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 have you looked at Zinc ? or Nickel ? 693223[/snapback] Leading Indicators? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokahay Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 The gold chart is a coin toss. On the one hand, we bounced-off an Dover Sole condition and have churned for two days above the 80 & 50dma. It looks like a beach-ball recovery and a possible flag-pole. On the other, we?re 4 weeks after the black cross (50dma under 200), and gold hasn?t recovered the 200dma. This could also be a set-up for another move lower. I?ve pointed it out before ? gold is moving according to events and their effects on confidence. I got sucked-in when gold started moving back in July, before Paulson put the FNM/FRE promise on the table. You can put tacks on the gold chart and see the downturns clearly happening according to actions that restore confidence in the financial system. Well, this weekend is the grand-daddy of them all (so far). I agree with your Jickiss who smells the gold smack-down next week. They will hit the tubes this weekend and proclaim victory and shake hands and wave the pom-poms. The market will probably pop and gold will get the back-hand. The question becomes, then, will the confidence last? If it does, then gold is probably over for a while. If confidence falls soon after, then I could imagine the Jickiss rocket launch. Actually, I?m pulling for the gold a$$-blast scenario. After thinking seriously about dumping some GLD today, I decided to hold and try to add next week (depending on how events play out). I?ll even dong some DGP with your Jickiss. But don?t buy until you see the fear in their eyes! Watch those 3-month yields for clues. And don?t write-off the idea that gold can?t go down! It all depends on confidence, IMO. 693227[/snapback] I bought some gold on bastille day as eagles crossed a thousand using the old Livermore even numbers theory. Nailed the top. Drove up the basis a little. then I went back to watchfuk waiting. The beginning of last week it was getting down there. Not 650 around which the charts show some support, but close enough. Had the website up to buy but decided whats the hurry. Then along came Thursday and POP! Zam! Crack! and up she went again. An it is exactly as you say. ON the cal Numismatic site they are still out of Buffs and Eagles and now they are out of Australians and 'rands too. Buying during this frenzy would be nuts. And just like you say might as well way for the "we are cutting a check and saving the world(s bankers)" moment. Then wait for the pullback. I took a chunk o cash out of the bank this week to voice my displeasure with the bailout. If we don't get a pullback. Maybe I'll invest in the metric system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob_Boberson Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 These were the top stories on Yahoo/Financial on Wednesday. Quick, which one doesn't belong: Stocks rally on bailout hopes- AP . New home sales at 17-yr low, prices fall record amount- AP . Jobless claims pushed to 7-year high- AP . GE lowers profit guidance, suspends stock buybacks- AP . August durable goods orders down sharply- Reuters . U.S. crude futures jump $2 amid bailout hopes- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 It's been a long week, but before you put Friday behind you and head off to you cozy little beds, I'm sure that like me you just need to know if that nice little CEO of WaMu is going to be alright .... WaMu Gives New CEO Mega Payout as Bank Fails Friday, September 26, 2008 Nice work ? if you can get fired from it. That's just what one Alan H. Fishman might have thought when he woke up Friday morning. Fishman was the new chief executive officer for Washingon Mutual ? WaMu ? the nation's largest savings and loan, which was taken over Thursday night by federal bank regulators and quickly dumped in a fire sale to JPMorgan Chase for the Wal-Mart-like price of $1.9 billion. But don't cry for Fishman, who reportedly was sky-high ? literally ? last night, on a flight from New York to Seattle, when WaMu collapsed. Even though he's only been on the job for less than three weeks, he's bailing out with parachute worth close to $20 million, according to an executive compensation analysis conducted for the New York Times by James F. Reda Associates. That's right, $20 million for 17 days on the job ... and his company failed. Fishman, who formerly was chairman of Meridian Capital Group, apparently was much coveted by WaMu, which was counting on him to lead the failing thrift out of mortgage troubles that pushed the bank to a $3.3 billion second-quarter loss. According to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, WaMu threw a $7.5 million bonus at Fishman when it hired him on Sept. 8, and guaranteed him an immediate cash severence of $11.6 million ? both of which he gets to keep. .... http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,428641,00 *(story is at this site. I'm not on my computer and using IE and I can't get anything working ) There now, isn't that better. Now for a glass of nice warm milk and great big Micky, and it's off to night-night. Sleep tight my little Stoolies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Sorry Dave Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Here's a first-post from a long-time Capitalstool lurker. Doc, in this week's RFWS, you expressed concern about the counter party risk of Treasury-shorting ETF's. Below is some representative stuff from the most recent Schedule of Investments for RYJUX (a popular Rydex Treasury-shorter). I see mostly Treasury-collateralized repo's. Then there's some agency stuff I would have once worried about--but not anymore! Looks pretty safe? What do you think? Of course, as soon as the rates really start rising, I'm sure they'll add Treasuries to the no-shorting list... ============================================ FEDERAL AGENCY DISCOUNT NOTES 87.1% Farmer Mac* 2.05% due 06/27/08 $ 20,000,000 $ 19,900,917 Federal Home Loan Bank* 1.50% due 04/01/08 350,000,000 REPURCHASE AGREEMENTS 101.7% Joint Repurchase Agreements (Note 5) Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. issued 03/31/08 at 1.30% due 04/01/08 $ 50,160,466 <etc> Individual Repurchase Agreement?? Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. issued 03/31/08 at 1.10% due 04/01/08 (Secured by a U.S. Treasury Bond, at a rate of 4.38% and maturing 02/15/38 as collateral, with a Market Value of $351,551,139) to be repurchased at $344,650,531 U.S. TREASURY OBLIGATIONS SOLD SHORT (75.9)% U.S. Treasury Bond 4.38% due 02/15/38 $ 317,931,000 ============================================ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jickiss Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 jickiss is back! jickiss is back! and Dear Brisbane Bear, your jickiss hopes that Spring is Springing up all over in AussieLand. Meanwhile, the land of Massive and Growing Denial, aka the united states, seems to be asleep after the Great Debate. HooHa, indeed. Gold will work to the limit UP when all else Fails or is Deemed to be in Danger. Right now, in the usa, your jickiss argues that the Sheeple are still basically asleep. Are they mad about the coming Bail-Out? your jickiss says not really, but, rather they are Greatly Annoyed that they can not get free cash the way the Masters of the Universe are going to get it. Gold has been Manipualted down for years, and this has all been Deliberate. Gold will be Pushed up by the same groups when they are ready to so do. This moment approaches. Get Ready. If there is ONE THING that your jickiss wishes could be understood, that one thing is time shifting......so far, despite all the debacles, there is -0- sense of Fear in the markets, in the opinion of your jickiss. No real fear means no real dumping to leave the credit/fiat/debt/derivative system. This moment for this to change also approaches. please remember that if a Beach front property ascended from, let's say, $300,000 to $10 million in Newport Beach, Kali, Gold can ascend from, let's say, $300 to $3,000 without great difficulty. To your jickiss, at these prices, Gold is virtually free. But they will definitely push it lower one more time if they can. The whole purpose of the Gold Trade will be to Buy Bonds when virtually everyone on earth thinks that the usa govenment will not pay on its bonds. The moment for this approaches, but not this year. This period is still within the Magic Zone, the zone wherein the monies traded for goods imported by the usa went to buy usa debts. cool deal, about to end as well. here is a review of the Great Trade. 300 in cash buys one ounce of gold. at the time, the yield on 300 was maybe 5%, give or take. 15 per year, yield. in the future, gold is sold at 3,000, at which time bonds yield 30 percent....this will pay 900 for a long time, 30 years, ideally. that is all there is/will be to the Great Trade. Of course it will happen, and it will be the Great Trade, for it will mean that you will have beaten da Boyz and you will never again have to work at anything that you dislike, forever. no one is to ever retire, but rather to thimk and DO until the very end. of course the usa is on the road to default, but, in the end game, gold will again be the savior of the usa, which has the greatest hoard on earth....they never sell, and they never never never will sell. they have been told, and they do listen. End game will be to make certain the da Sheeple own very few Bonds when the call protected yield is 30% or more, and that red wet stuff flows in the streets. take the usa off prescription meds, welfare, social security and govenment pensions and it will again become great. the people themselves are not fundamentally bad, but once the desire to get something for nothing takes over, and persists, well, only Strong Medicine can then fix the deeply seated addiction. sometimes, the Medicine is so strong that it practically kills the patient, but Everything is Easy Until you do it. The Flag of Australia Never give in Brisbane Bear, and we all salute you! jickiss!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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