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B4 The Bell Fryday April 2,2004


Guest yobob1

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If the so-called free press don't see the lies in this report then the sheep deserve what they get.As to Greenscum what is he going to do now the bond market is melting before his eyes.

I am in utter confusion here.

Why would they do this?

Are they that confident they can control the long bond?

 

Not even a +1000 tick

No conviction so far

Trin opened at a low going off my charts

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Killa if you track my trades I win a lot more than I lose-YOU do what works for YOU and I'll do what works for me.

ditto - thanks so much for this thread, B4.

 

In an effort to hedge an outlier number yesterday (still short SPX), I shorted CTX. Also bought XAU puts, but sold them at the close yesterday after considerable trepidation.

 

Builders and low interest rate trades have led this market up; it is extremely unlikely that leadership will change on a huge spike up. Market needs to come down to "regroup" (ed. a non- TA, real world assessment of this clusterf**k of a day).

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Quick denials!

 

WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Labor Department said on Friday it had no evidence the March paryolls data was leaked ahead of its official release time, as some financial market participants have speculated.

 

"We have no evidence of a leak," Labor Department spokesman Gary Steinberg told Reuters.

 

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/200...rtr1321841.html

 

 

Ralph Axel, senior vice president and fixed-income strategist at HSBC Securities in New York, said the market started moving around 8:28 a.m. (1328 GMT) -- about two minutes before the surprising gain in March payrolls was officially released by the Labor Department.

 

Hey, it was only 2 minutes before the official release!

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=DJ Federal Funds Futures See 100% Chance Aug Hike -3-

 

.

 

Front-month June bond futures fell more than four points on the day Friday following the data release to a low of 108-25, almost a two-and-a-half-month low.

 

About half of those losses were pared in morning trade, however.

 

Lucas of Bank of America said because interest rate contracts were positioned so defensively ahead of the data, some short covering actually took place after the number.

 

He said trade in interest rate contracts would likely be choppy throughout the session Friday as market participants continued to digest the data.

 

Eurodollar futures, another short-term interest rate market with a close tie to the federal funds rate, also took a sharp nose dive after the strong report. The front-month September contract plunged more than 20 basis points to its lowest level since mid-February.

 

Participants scrambled to readjust expectations for a rate hike, moving a 25-basis-point hike into the third quarter. Prior to the report, the market was seeing the first tightening move with certainty in the fourth quarter.

 

Eurodollar futures are now pricing in a 25-basis-point hike with certainty by the Sept. 21 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and about a 25% chance for a move of 50 basis points by then, participants said.

 

The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point tightening at the June 29-30 policy meeting and slightly greater than 50% probability at the Aug. 10 meeting, said Steve Poser, president of Poser Global Markets.

 

"The market is saying the Fed needs to start getting rates aligned more. The economy certainly seems to be in better shape than we were two hours ago. If the Fed ignored politics, they should raise rates today," he said.

 

Before the report, the market had priced in no chance of any action the second quarter, and slim odds of any action before the Nov. 2 election.

 

One floor broker called the market action Friday "a nuthouse," with rally attempts from here likely to be only based on short-covering.

 

"This number was huge, pent-up and overdue," said Dan Stecich, a broker with TJM Futures. "The Fed was looking for signs of improvement in the labor market, now they've got it."

 

Some said, however, Eurodollar futures may have overshot on the downside and one report doesn't necessarily make a trend.

 

"Whether this moves the Fed's timing up, I'm not so sure. I think one number doesn't make a case for it, we need to see three or four numbers of consecutive growth," said Gary Flagler, director with Banc One Capital Markets. He said the average workweek was down, and that raises a red flag, or at least a yellow one.

-By Christine Marie Nielsen and Kristina Zurla, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-435-9256; [email protected]

(Michael Mackenzie contributed to this report.)

 

Dow Jones Newswires

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Guys on the trading floor claim the report had been leaked to somebody.

 

 

Never have I been more scared.

I cannot live in a world of such lies.

Worse, in a world that such lies are accepted by the populace.

 

end of rant

 

 

Sherlock

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