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w?s=%5EAORD

 

 

All Ords closed +0.9%, poking through resistance although the onscreen action didn't look particularly bullish to me. Gold +1.7% was the leading sector followed by Telecomms +1.5% and Consumer Staples/Healthcare +1.4%.

 

Mostly red in Asia: China -1.6%, Honkers -1%, India -0.3% and Nikkers -0.8%.

 

 

On to UK/Europe:

 

 

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Are you looking at equity markets or debt markets or both, to issue this flashing yellow alert?. If it is not too uncomfortable a question, which market is giving you more of the heebie-jeebies?. In general which market would you trust more to issue advance notice of a probable bullish or bearish move in equities?.(Sheesh, that sounds like a job interview... )

 

Just the equity side of the equation...and it appears to be deteriorating

 

One hint below...is Rusty gonna roll? Regardless, that gap's gonna close.

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=SPX&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3377&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=10&rand=742829223&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&comp=rut&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

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GOLDMAN: BUY GOLD

 

They argue that U.S. real interest rates are the most important driver of the price of gold in dollars – but that this relationship broke down late last year and has not yet returned to the level current negative or low yields on 10-year Treasurys imply. The low yields have come following the Federal Reserve’s Operation Twist – which involved the central bank buying up longer-term Treasurys and selling shorter-term Treasurys and helped restore the markets’ confidence in the U.S. “We believe that despite last fall’s decline in 10-year TIPS yields, the gold market may have been expecting that real rates would soon be rising along with better economic growth, leading to a sharp decline in net speculative length in gold futures,” the anal cysts said.

 

“Our U.S. economists expect subdued growth and further easing by the Fed in 2012, which should push the market’s expectations of real rates back down near 0 basis points and gold prices back to our 6 month forecast.”

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Just the equity side of the equation...and it appears to be deteriorating

 

One hint below...is Rusty gonna roll? Regardless, that gap's gonna close.

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=SPX&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3377&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=10&rand=742829223&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&comp=rut&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

 

I don't agree that this thought is useful. Here's why. The spread does not indicate that the market is overextended or overvalued and therefore that the Russell must close the gap. The Russell is small cap stocks. It has more leverage. Second, it is 100% reconstituted annually. The stocks the grow too big are dropped and the ones that shrink too much are dropped. They only keep the small cap cream.

 

It will only close the gap when there's a bear market and that will only be temporary. The closing of the gap will be a function of the timing of the bear market. As long as the bull market remains in force the gap will only grow.

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I don't agree that this thought is useful. Here's why. The spread does not indicate that the market is overextended or overvalued and therefore that the Russell must close the gap. The Russell is small cap stocks. It has more leverage. Second, it is 100% reconstituted annually. The stocks the grow too big are dropped and the ones that shrink too much are dropped. They only keep the small cap cream.

 

It will only close the gap when there's a bear market and that will only be temporary. The closing of the gap will be a function of the timing of the bear market. As long as the bull market remains in force the gap will only grow.

 

Point taken

 

That's why I trade

 

...and you write about it

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Just the equity side of the equation...and it appears to be deteriorating

 

One hint below...is Rusty gonna roll? Regardless, that gap's gonna close.

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=SPX&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3377&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=10&rand=742829223&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&comp=rut&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

 

I don't agree that this thought is useful. Here's why. The spread does not indicate that the market is overextended or overvalued and therefore that the Russell must close the gap. The Russell is small cap stocks. It has more leverage. Second, it is 100% reconstituted annually. The stocks the grow too big are dropped and the ones that shrink too much are dropped. They only keep the small cap cream.

 

It will only close the gap when there's a bear market and that will only be temporary. The closing of the gap will be a function of the timing of the bear market. As long as the bull market remains in force the gap will only grow.

 

TJ & Doc - thanks to both of you for the view from your respective perches... that's what makes a market.

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