3Martinis Posted January 31, 2003 Report Share Posted January 31, 2003 *hic* B'tween wyndy an mogambu you guysh thoroughly nail theesh shcummy twits to da wall on shuch a conshishtent bashish that I think I'll have ta put up a freakin shtatue to the pair of ya. I'll gold plate the mother too. cheers *hic* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 31, 2003 Report Share Posted January 31, 2003 Last I posted "i smell somsing" I just didn't like the non implosion of the Nikkei and the miracle comeback in the Aussie market and even more miraculous march upward by last nights futures. Well-is it over?? Are the good times all gone?? The TOTAL downmove in the SPX for the entire week was 5 yes 5 CRUMMY points-it's like watching a Glacier move. Obviously I don't THINK it's over but I do think a rally is underway that may cover a lot of ground in a short time. Having said that it IS a 3rd wave down and we have never had one with this steep a slope so watch todays lows 7917, 840,1303 and 968-any break of those and we are resuming the down move to and probably thru the Oct. lows. How high can the PIG rally? Anywhere between 876 and 898ish although like END it would blow me away if it got over 890-but technically it could. Now smelling a rat last nite I ratcheted my stops down real TIGHT and I was stopped out real quick with a KA CHING profit. I took a 1/3 off the table yesterday and had plans to re deploy it today but I DIDN'T. What I did do was buy a 1/2 position in the March 890 puts at the close so on Monday I may or may NOT keep them-other than that I am in cash and there is no way, NO WAY I will go long if this rally is for real. It ain't over till the fat lady sings-keep your powder dry and safe-till the TURN-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forrest Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Greetings, stoolsters... Been lurking several months, subscribed a while ago, but, since I realize I don?t know jack compared to most of the regular posters, I?ve been mum till now. But now I have a bit of a dilemma, and I?m asking the stool community for advice. A bit of background: I?ve been bearish for years, and even managed to miss most of the gains of the 90?s, as I thought stocks were overvalued in 1993! Did have a couple of major scores (LETRX Russia fund, HIPOX ipo fund, cool while it lasted). I finally capitulated my bearish attitude, decided to get on the bandwagon big time via UOPIX (2X Naz), went on vacation, Naz tanked, lost major, major bucks. Took me two years of beating myself up to get over that dumbass move. Right now I?m heavily into RGLD (up 50% since Sept, yowza! Thanks B4), UOPIX, USPIX, and a handful of LEAP puts. Don?t do any day stuff, as I barely know the difference between MACD and Mickey D?s. Here?s my dilemma: in a couple of days my wife and I are loading up our small moho with dog, kayaks, and my dirt bike (DRZ400) and heading off to Baja for a month of foolishness and debauchery. WTF do I do with my positions? I figure I should hold the RGLD, but I?d feel really stupid if I repeated my previous egregious faux pas by leaving the ProFunds leveraged funds unattended, and Mr. Market performed another miraculous levitation. How ?bout switching to BEARX, which seems less volatile? PSAFX? Cash? After waiting and waiting for some meaningful downward action, I just hate to completely miss any potential (and overdue) drop. Ok, I?m open to suggestions. Anyone, anyone? Forrest Forgot to mention: man, I love this place! Never, ever miss M2M, and I?m generally in awe of the collective knowledge on display here. Many, many thanks to the regulars. This site just blows all of the newsletters out of the water. Did merciless decide to go kosher on us? Token political statement, just to annoy: yes, our president is an embarrassment. History (if there IS any more history after he gets done) won?t look kindly upon him. OK, I promise not to do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Yeah that action on our market yesterday was weird B4. I see the footsie did basically the same thing, ie a big drop at open and a slow grind back up to close marginally down. Here it was a neurotic day with heaps of churning, red, green and back again and similar scenarios. One of my put parents, WSF, dropped 22c in the morning resulting in my option dropping comfortably into the money but on my return from a tai chi class all refreshed and relaxed I found the put parent +53c and out of the money which immediately unrelaxed me again. No announcements that I could find, lowish volume....hmmm. My pet theory is that it is a bipolar market atm with the smart money/bears selling and a vast pool of investors out there believing the hype and buying. A friend of mine sends on his broker's blurb and the last one I read said something like "our parent company Bear Stearns believes the US economy will continue to be robust" CONTINUE to be ROBUST??? So for the average Joe Blow who doesn't do any personal research that sounds pretty good I guess. Most people I speak to haven't got a clue what's going on although owners of small businesses are concerned. I've found the latter are fairly cluey on the local economy so I do regular surveys.. The DOW is still moving within the expanding formation on the 60 min chart so may be more volatility to come. The DOW could even attempt to break back up thru 8200-ish. On the other hand that lower high end of day might be forecasting a nice drop. I'm still firmly bearish and I think we're watching a market in its death throes. The UK and several European markets have already plunged below the Oct lows, just a matter of time before the rest of us go under the waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Forrest: Welcome to the Arena. Do yourself a favor. Sell all positions. Except for gold, which remains in a bull market until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Forrest-Mark is right-but I think if your leap puts are 04 or 05 and I am assuming on techno-crap - I'd probably keep them -you have lots time working in your favor-enjoy your month-and welcome! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 What other business do you guys know, other than the Street, where you can be wrong almost all the time and and still make seven figures? I agree with wndy. If you are going away for a month, get out. If you don't want to get out completely, reduce leverage to the absolute minimum. Do not go away with 200% leverage or more. You will not sleep nights. The behavior of the market is normal for a major top on the verge of a breakdown. And that's what this is, a 3 month top formation in the early stages of breakdown. 1973 was like this almost all year. The better part of 1974 was like this. It just keeps gnawing and gnawing. Drip Drip bounce. drip drip bounce. Then one day, all of a sudden the floodgates open and they never look back. Don't let these rallies shake you up or out. They will get successively weaker. Go back and look at daily charts of 73-74 for instructions on how to deal with this. Now, I got a newsletter to write. Bye. See you in the Anals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martialcomp Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 The market is probably not going to go straight down... IMHO, we are just working off all of the Dover Sole technicals so that we can head lower. The 78.5 week cycle chart that was posted yesterday made a heck of a lot of sense. It looks like the minimum low on the S&P will probably be about 740 and could be much lower than that. We will have to wait until the cycle completes in Mid March to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest alex Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Good call yesterday on the bounce, Mark - sold puts in the am, and got em back at the HOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Requesting advice. I am short 1k of MU from 42.1, I think it has a chance for BK, but I held this back to 39 and now to 8+. Could somebody recommend an option position that would hedge and still let me hold the shares in the event it does crater? I don't do options, but know this is what I need to do . Any suggestions greatly appreciated and Doc, I feel a bm, I better hit the pooper scooper. :grin: TIA, BW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 All that viagra and still could only manage a chubby...reminds me of " whiskey dick " in college, one of my fraternity brothers who was always to wasted to get it up. Anyhow I think we're toast next week. Sit back, relax and make those puts mar or april. Added 5 mar 900's near the close to go with my 5 950's... let it rip.....cant imagine anyone being long right now...but hey when its other peoples money who gives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxxPain Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 So here we are. The neckline is broken. It bounces off the fibo-nacho. It could test the neckline, but it will fail get back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiddMarket Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 So... we had end-of-month tape painting today, and in just three weeks, we'll have scam week. The market only has a few weeks to tank-it'd better hurry. By the way, if you all had jumped on RMBS when I yelled in IDS, you could have picked up a point and a half in about an hour. It closed on its high, and went up another half in after-hours- total 25million volume. No upgrades yet- but when they do come, it'll pop again. For all the long losing daytraders out there- "You CAN make back all the money you lost in techs with just one BIG WINNER ". Today, it made up for my beating in puts (and then some), and it'll make a nice hedge again for at least the next few days. Everyone loves a winner, especially with the number of losers out there. And if RMBS goes down, feel free to heap abuse on me. I can take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 ATTENTION RIVERBOATERS: Mortgage Bubble Stocks On Verge of Breakout? Check out the stochastics and money flow indicator at bottom of the each page. Money flow going downtown says huge short interest has been accumulated. About 9 times out of 10, the MFI has reliably predicted a bounce when the stochastics are at rock bottom. NCEN has a perfect bull flag. NCEN FRE due for a bounce after going straight down. FRE MBI heavily shorted last 3 days, but they can't push it down. MBI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flaming Turds Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Another stellar report... This place is like group therapy. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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