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Sudden Recoil


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#31 Ned38

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 08:18 PM

Contrived and Artificial.  I totally agree 27.  That is the most frustrating and demoralizing part of it for me.  The big boyz are serious about shaking out the weaker shorts before they let it go.

"They " say..............Sell 'em in May and go away"

They want a rally and will do whatever they can to get one before May
Now maybe all they can do is jam for options week and then the end of month paint job , but that still is a third of a month of getting slapped around. ouch.. :(

#32 Guest_The CoinGuy_*

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 08:24 PM

Hello Fellow Stoolies,

For those of you doing current research on mining companies, here is the latest from BMO Nesbitt Burns - 2003 Global Resources Conference. Looking to add some positions, but not quite yet. did take a position or two already, but most charts I monitor, just aren't where I want them to be...damn close though.

BMO Nesbitt Burns - 2003 Global Resources Conference

Short URPIX, Long PSAFX, PM's, and Physical,

TCG

#33 Drano

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 08:25 PM

Even though I've started to wonder if this is true, there probably is a limit to how long they can keep this thing afloat because of the need to keep the dollar the reserve currency -- a limit to how much they can debase it.

My own undoubtedly completely erroneous theory is that they're going to do what they can to keep it up until the first shot is fired, at which point they'll let it collapse because it can be blamed on the war, not them. They are really excellent manipulators, as we have learned to our sorrow, but they know this can't go on like this forever.

Remember that I am a contrarian indicator.
Of course I'm caustic!

#34 Downtick

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 08:27 PM

Ditto Downtick, you too are playing the "game" properly.

Thanks PD. The style of play has to match the personality IMO.

Good trading buddy. :wink2:

#35 BAREister

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 08:29 PM

The intent doesn't matter. The result does/consequences do. Several people have already departed. Looks like another is about to, at least in a heretoFUR active way. Having felt the brunt of pique hisself, HRFF can empathize w how they feel. It can take a lot of the fun out of it, which, if this writer had to guess is partly why Wyndy is winding down.

Hopefully there is a place for diversity of opinion around here.

Even occasional bullish opinion, or echoing that of UDDERS. Heresy is healthy - in moderate dosages.

Noland may be redundant, but he serves an important historical purpose, at a minimum "BARE"ing witness ™ to the obscene excesses of a wanton era.

The BARE once wondered if shorting this market was the metaFURical equivalent of fighting City Hall. He's beginning to wonder that, again.

One needs the patience of Job and DEEP pockets to put up with this bear.

The market's, again, doing what HRFF speculated it might do late last Nov - shilly shally sidewaze FUR FUR 'long'er than most people could imagine.

LongonUranus is right - there is ample danger out there. It hangs over this market like a Damoclean sword. It may arrive on it's doorstep, ass early ass next week.

Wyndy, this "no man's land" won't endure FURever and may terminate just ass you ramp down.

Whatever happens to you we need anUDDER nightly venue as proxy FUR this thread.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#36 brian4

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 08:42 PM

Oh Dashley and Drano-they'll let her go-thats why THEY are ass deep SHORT-mid week next I suspect. That guy was good has to be with a name like Derwood-(I bet his brother is Dagwood). Suncor is one I own-they own the tar sands in Alberta which hold more oil than Saudi and venezuela combined (notice I didn't capitalize venezuela). Suncor is producing a barrel of oil from the shale like rock for the same price as anyone else. It's taken an investment of 100's of Billions of Dollars for the extraction technology but Suncor is going full blast if you want an oil play-it's Suncor. For a natural gas play try the BIG BOY-Encana Energy they have it coming out their ears. Trade Safe!

#37 wrecked him

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 08:56 PM

That being said, I will and have gone long when the risk/reward seems better for me tp do it.  Since becoming a member I have done it three times of relatively short duration.  I do what I do which is intermediate trend trading.  What anyone else does is their perogative.  My only concern is when they seem to be suffering in their style regularly.  


To be intolerant of anyone ever going long would make this board no different than crapvision.  It would just be the yang to their ying.  

The bottom line is are you making money and staying sane.

I am as short as anyone on this board. However I play the SWUPS . I reviewed my longs from March 2002 high to the July 2002 low.
Return (%)
April 11 (4.7)
May 3-9 (15)
June 3 (2.6)
June 17 (7)
June 27 (0.2)
July 5 (9.9)

This is while remaining short throughout. The bottom line is the bottom line. One day when the bull market returns, (if I'm not in a nursing home drooling), I will play the SWUPS as well. But those trades will be shorts.
A generation which ignores history has no past -- and no future

#38

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 08:59 PM

Colonel you might be right.  It just seems, amongst other things, that a lot of energy (i.e., feed) has been expended to pretty much keep the overall market in the same tight range for months.  The SPEE is still running an overall p/e of 35 and the Naz is higher.  There is an old saying, "Ebays don't grow to the sky."

I am speaking both from a position of frustration and the sinking feeling that they are going to do whatever, and I do mean whatever, is necessary to keep the financial markets inflated. I am starting to think that much of this is political in that the word has been put on that recession will not be tolerated. There is a definite arrogance about it all. Like Washington, Wall Street and the FED can simply strong arm the economy while keeping the public confused, hoping, and distracted.

I only say this because should the paper asset machine with all its convoluted cross-wiring fail, it cannot do anything but lead to massive financial destruction and consequent political and social unrest. The high profile people you are seeing leaving the administration and all the negative talk suddenly surrounding the FED chairman means to me that there is desparation, fear and panic in the highest offices. Only those who are willing to throw themselves into the burning fires and commit personal and professional suicide "for the cause" will be tolerated. These madmen actually believe that they are gods and can do anything with new era economic polices and practice. Lies will be told, numbers will be manipulated, reports will be fabricated, money will be printed, debt will be expanded, markets will be rigged, foreign and domestic enemies of the state will be identified, wars will be started, and the propaganda will be non stop.

It is all very disturbing.

#39 Drano

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 09:05 PM

Brian, I agree. I think they know that they NEED to let the market go, and are frantically trying to keep it afloat until the first shot is fired. At that point the crash can be blamed on the war, they can try to salvage the dollar as the world's reserve currency, and set the stage for a new bull before 2004.

Thanks for info on Suncor and Encana. I'll take a look.

I kind of liked Derwood Chase. He looked totally cynical and disgusted.
Of course I'm caustic!

#40 MrHanky

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 09:14 PM

Not much to say except I am waiting for an extreme one way or another to make a move.Blowoff top or monster volume bottom.

cash till then


This market could easily go drastically either way real fast.

Nothing


#41 martialcomp

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 09:27 PM

To me...there are 2 different types of longs.

1. Those that buy in to the "rah, rah, rah" Bubblevision propaganda and think that everyone is going to be a gazillionaire.

2. Those that trade long based on cycles, Repo blasts, semi-conductor heat maps, news, etc.

Type 2's have the knowledge to trade. Type 1's will lose all of their money.

type 2's will sell in to a 24% cycle rally that last several weeks, Type 1's...well you get the message.

PS...Cramer is a flaming idiot that just says things just to say them. He just blabs. I also think that makes up many of the things that he says. He lies and distorts.

#42 wrecked him

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 09:33 PM

Does trading sometimes feel like this???Posted Image
A generation which ignores history has no past -- and no future

#43

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 09:34 PM

[ "The intent doesn't matter. The result does/consequences do. Several people have already departed. Looks like another is about to, at least in a heretoFUR active way. Having felt the brunt of pique hisself, HRFF can empathize w how they feel. It can take a lot of the fun out of it, which, if this writer had to guess is partly why Wyndy is winding down." ]

Bare

The market has many nerves stripped raw. We get the OE ramp and the EOM jam. Then we have the every other day jams to neutralize the bad news. Then we deal with the beginning of the month 401K contribution ramp. We have the peace ramp and the war jams. Holy Crap -- is it any wonder people are getting a little sensive. Hell, even SG is turning off his monitor and tuning the crap out. Maybe that is what we all need. A break from the Maria's and Ned Rilley's and everyother lackey and weasel that the Wall Street propaganda machine trots out day after day.

#44 martialcomp

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 09:41 PM

Fred's Intelligent Bear Site Fib Page

FIB: Watching Crapvision will make you a better investor.

Truth: The endless parade of anal cysts, CEOs, and pro forma earnings reports on Crapvision should be viewed for entertainment value only. For relatively objective financial news, I would stick with Bloomberg and Nightly Business Report. Avoid Rukeyser like the plague. That arrogant S.O.B. and his perma-bull lackeys have no idea how to survive a bear market.

Freds Bear Fib Page

#45 PileDriver

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Posted 28 February 2003 - 09:52 PM

Get short or get out of the way, probabilities highly suggest the blowout is to the downside.

I did some dongs during the Jan pop while short but right now I see now point to it. The market had every reason to do well today but it did not. This is a sign of extreme weakness.

Equity P/C ratio was under 0.5 all day.

The bull-hook is in. Perhaps some more marginal upside early next week at best.

I have no problem with those with bullish views either, always have to watch your back and roll with the punches but hard cold facts must be presented as to why. Its not enough to blab, or say so because everyone else is "too bearish". Its a bear market, so the prudent default stance is to be bearish - duh!

Fib dates:
2/20 low
2/27 high

We're not too far off the mark. We really are still on course here.

A common mistake many make is when things don't turn out precisely as they expected then they conclude they are completely wrong and finally give up. That's exactly when things go your way, but if you gave up you miss it. That's ashame.

Be realistic, the market always takes longer to develop than you expect.

Its all perception.





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