Guest Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 The criminal part of the substitution fsctors in the CPI is that there are no baselines for comparison. For instance: IF the price of beef goes up, then chicken is considered a substitute. No effect on CPI. A decrease in beef prices relative to chicken is assumed to create a substitution back into beef. Since the price decrease is relative to chicken prices, not an absolute change, the price of beef may actually be higher than the original substitution price. Nevertheless the CPI will record this as a decrease in meat prices due to substitution. Furthermore there is no correlation to actual chicken or beef sales. i.e who is to say anyone actually substituted. I think this is the original point Gross was trying to make. Either way CPI is a useless statistic unless you are looking at decade over decade changes in a retrospective view. This is the whole point, Rog. Government numbers are supposed to provide an historical barometer of the relative health or weakness of the economy using time-tested benchmarks so that all data is available to all in a context that provides relevance to past economic cycles. I can assure you that somewhere there are a set of data being kept within the government that show exactly what a freaking mess we are in, but that will never be seen. The game has been to so bastardize the process by which numbers are calculated that no economist will be capable of running to ground the true health of the economy as compared to prior cycles. This is of course by design, to create the illusion of health while hiding the truth from We The People, and is criminal. I'm quite sure that we are in a recession now - and we are absolutely in the midst of Stagflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 Window now closed it was OK- a gap and crap and now a mild bounce is all we have-my feeds went down twice this morning-anyone else???... the Pig is on her own for a short bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 I can assure you that somewhere there are a set of data being kept within the government that show exactly what a freaking mess we are in, but that will never be seen. The game has been to so bastardize the process by which numbers are calculated that no economist will be capable of running to ground the true health of the economy as compared to prior cycles. I'm quite sure that we are in a recession now - and we are absolutely in the midst of Stagflation. In the End Game, the econ stats become irrelevant, don't they? It's a question of what do you carry with you when the firefighter escorts you from your burning house ... not the rising temperature on the hall thermostat ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 This was posted on another board and I think it worth reposting here. U.S. ECRI weekly leading index at 81-week low By Rex Nutting WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Leading economic indicators are pointing to lackluster U.S. growth, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said Friday. The ECRI's weekly leading index fell 1 percent last week, the slowest growth in 81 weeks. The index has fallen for nine straight weeks. The decline shows that the economy is not reacclerating out of the soft patch, ECRI economists say. Oil prices are not the primary cause of the weakness, they said. LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 Say goodbye to the American software programmer. Once the symbols of hope as the nation shifted from manufacturing to service jobs, programmers today are an endangered species. They face a challenge similar to that which shrank the ranks of steelworkers and autoworkers a quarter century ago: competition from foreigners. Some experts think they'll become extinct within the next few years. Endangered species No need to worry about the fired programmers. The President is going to send them ALL to junior college to retrain. That's what I heard him say during the last debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 Sorry Machinehead, that CBS Marketwatch article was your baby. Yep, AG you called that one right..... Historical declines, severe ones, are most often associated with mistakes by the Fed when they raise rates when the economy is weak. In this case, the fed raised rates when the LEI are pointing down....this is negligent! We are in fact accelerating the decline with the fed rate increase. Isn't this plain to see? Why are not the talking heads and everyone seeing this? I don't get this idiocy and ignorance. On top of that, we have an oil/energy price spike. WTF is the Fed and most investors thinking? I'm no brilliant guy, but even a retard can see that economy is going to get much weaker if not bust under these circumstances...... Grrrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 Opening now till the top of the hour-Helmets on, Buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucid and confused Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 Sorry Machinehead, that CBS Marketwatch article was your baby. Yep, AG you called that one right..... Historical declines, severe ones, are most often associated with mistakes by the Fed when they raise rates when the economy is weak. In this case, the fed raised rates when the LEI are pointing down....this is negligent! We are in fact accelerating the decline with the fed rate increase. Isn't this plain to see? Why are not the talking heads and everyone seeing this? I don't get this idiocy and ignorance. On top of that, we have an oil/energy price spike. WTF is the Fed and most investors thinking? I'm no brilliant guy, but even a retard can see that economy is going to get much weaker if not bust under these circumstances...... Grrrrrrr SO the other option is to provide super cheap free money...forever??? Given the egregious nature of humans when presented with too much resource was there really any choice other than that we squander away our resources, in this case the purchasing power of the doolar. And I wonder, would this decrease in purchasing power be a reason why we need ever cheaper sources of manufacturing, just to maintain the status quo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shebear Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/15/opinion/...l?oref=login&th Nationwide effort by Reps to keep Dems from the polls. Krugman. Butterfield.. There was an article in the Mobile Register's front page yesterday about a registered Republican who received a letter from the GOP reminding him to cast his vote in Florida.. Here's the catch. The man moved from Florida to Alabama over a year ago. Have since then registered to vote in ALabama. The reminder was sent to his NEW ADDRESS, not a forwarded format. The man exposed the GOP's tactic because he is as anti Bush as many of us are. Causes you to wonder how many other Republicans are being encouraged to vote twice? His room mate (registered Democrat) who made the same move. did not receive a reminder at all. hmmmm..... Something smells badly. Scary world America is becoming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 Fascism alert: Speaker J. Dennis Hastert released the following statement regarding the meeting next week of the conferees on the 9/11 Recommendations Implementation Act: "I am glad that the conferees will be meeting next week for the first public meeting of the conference on the 9/11 Recommendations Implementation Act. Intelligence Committee Chairman Pete Hoekstra, who will chair this conference committee, will do an excellent job of bringing people together to get a legislative result that will make the country safer. He will work well with Senator Susan Collins, who did such an admirable job getting legislation through the Senate." Full text of announcement The House version -- by standardizing state drivers licenses under federal control -- implements a virtual national ID and internal passport scheme in the U.S. The Senate bill does not contain that language. If the House prevails in conference, President Bush will sign a bill ... before the election ... implementing a national ID in America. Time's up, folks ... this is it ... the jail door is about to slam shut for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/15/opinion/...l?oref=login&th Nationwide effort by Reps to keep Dems from the polls. Krugman. Butterfield.. There was an article in the Mobile Register's front page yesterday about a registered Republican who received a letter from the GOP reminding him to cast his vote in Florida.. Here's the catch. The man moved from Florida to Alabama over a year ago. Have since then registered to vote in ALabama. The reminder was sent to his NEW ADDRESS, not a forwarded format. The man exposed the GOP's tactic because he is as anti Bush as many of us are. Causes you to wonder how many other Republicans are being encouraged to vote twice? His room mate (registered Democrat) who made the same move. did not receive a reminder at all. hmmmm..... Something smells badly. Scary world America is becoming.. Voters may see 'challengers' at polls http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/...33050167812.xml "Are you voting for Bush?" "No." "Sorry, you're not eligible to vote." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 I think this is the original point Gross was trying to make. Either way CPI is a useless statistic unless you are looking at decade over decade changes in a retrospective view. One of the original purposes of CPI was to calculate "cost of living" adjustments for pensioners. Capital assets such as houses, stocks and bonds are not a cost for pensioners, since they are usually disposing of capital assets late in life. Government is not much of a cost for pensioners, since they are often net recipients of gov't benefits (Soc Sec, Medicare, etc.). So, excluding inflation in capital assets and taxes is fine for pensioners. But CPI is useless and misleading for working people who DO face these costs. If 40% of your income goes to taxes, and 30% for housing, then only 30% of your spending is indexed by the CPI. It's bullshit ... well, what if 40% goes to taxes and 49% to housing? affordability index is down from 17% last year to 10% (YES THATS CORRECT) in san diego county - thats the lowest i remember - doc, any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 Lucid, I argued for a long time that AG dropped rates too fast and too low and that he got us all in a corner. There are no good solutions now, but AG would have been better off leaving rates low and allowing inflationary presures and interest rates to decline to meet the fed numbers. Raising rates at this stage is a real gamble...a roll of the dice that does not sit well with economic history. The bet is that AG talks the economy up and keeps the dollar relatively strong while increasing rates. AG and all of us loose if the economy does not pick up out of the soft patch and get much better. The problem is that the economy is not picking up. I don't think that the fed should keep rates low to continue the misallocation of resources and do further economic damage. I think the Fed has already done that damage. If you think this is a good time to raise rates, then I'm not going to argue with you. Heck why not make the global economic adjustment now. Lets get it over with. Lets throw the economy into a significant decline. Its going there anyway...right? I just don't know what is the right thing to do here. Lucid, you may be 100% right. We, the US economy/financiial situation, are in a terrible place and things are going to get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 more on GDP from melduke - my BOLD of last sentence In the third quarter, GM lost money on their vehicle manufacturing operations in the U.S., Europe, and North America. It was the first loss on North American car manufacturing in six years.Their financing arm produced enough earnings to put their disappointing results in the black. What good is it to keep producing vehicles at unrealistically high levels only to sell them at a loss? The stockholders suffer and our GDP becomes overstated. To produce at a loss does not reflect a healthy GDP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted October 15, 2004 Report Share Posted October 15, 2004 Pee, Great Point! I guess that is why Fitch downgraded their debt to one level above junk and Moody's has them on the watch list. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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