wndysrf Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 Two year anniversary of the 2001 top. 30-bonds reach a record high, 10-year not far behind. Bond investors are scared to death, paying any price for quality and safety. Stock Market Riverboaters are staggering drunks, paying any price for the riskiest, most ridiculously overpriced Promise Tickets of all time. New record lows on the VXN and QQV today. Alan Newman will finish the rest of the commentary today. As usual, the same themes repeated over and over. "The Mania Lives On" "The Stock Market Is the Economy" "Program Robots Running Out of Control" http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest RiffRaff Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 Mark, what do you make of the move in the homebuilders today?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 I'm still of the opinion that this POS market is headed for 980. Incredible Put buying today. Everybody positioning for the melt? Unwinding those puts should guarantee 980 in about 3 days! 5Day Trin still way too high. Must be some hedgies going under. People are buying because they have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 As a result of an apparent infringement against proprietary ownership rights by a poster on Capitalstool.com's message boards, we can no longer hotlink to charts from Stockcharts.com. You may still upload their charts, but you must first copy the chart to your computer, then attach it to your post here. May I remind everyone, again, that copyright and use violations are serious business. When an owner's rights are abused, we all pay. I ask that we all abide by the terms of use of other websites, as well as respect copyrights. Do not repost copyrighted material without permission unless it can realistically be considered "fair use." Fair use means a brief snippet and a link with clear attribution to the source. Especially, do not repost proprietary charts or material from private newsletters and services without permission. You do not have the right to do that, so don't do it. And do not manipulate code from other websites to trick their servers into doing things the website owner did not intend for public use. This is an abuse of service. It's wrong, and it just cost us bigtime. We have had a good relationship with Stockcharts.com until now, and we had the right to hotlink to their charts. We have now lost that right due to abuse of non-public features of their chart servers. I am sorry for this inconvenience. Sooner or later, there is always a price to be paid for cheating. We may not like the rules, but when we don't play by them, we end up only screwing ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe sixpack bundy Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 the VIX index broke out of its downtrend from march-early april two days ago - then it collapsed again - touching the downtrend-line.....it it turns up tomorrow, i guess we've seen it (5day cycle top tomorrow?)......if they succeed leaning on it, i buy scottcardiff's scenario and we'll witness a "derviative meltup"......flip a coin for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 Mark, what do you make of the move in the homebuilders today?? My perception is that homebuilders and mortgage lenders are breaking out due to the intention of the Fed to monetize home values. This economy will be kept moving forward as long as home prices go up. As long as they continue to change the rules to benefit those borrowing money to buy homes, the bubble will grow. Numerous ways to accomplish this: 1. Lengthen the length of mortgages to 40 or 50 years. 2. Press down mortgage rates. 3. Increase tax benefits of buying homes. 4. More adjustable rate loans. 5. Etc., etc., The 10Yr Bond is at crucial fibo support in the 3.3% - 3.4% area. If this doesn't hold, we could see as low as 2.7% Hypertiger's analysis is dead on. There will be a horrible economic depression at some point. But not until mortgage holders demand higher rates to compensate for the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 My perception is that homebuilders and mortgage lenders are breaking out due to the intention of the Fed to monetize home values. This economy will be kept moving forward as long as home prices go up. As long as they continue to change the rules to benefit those borrowing money to buy homes, the bubble will grow. Numerous ways to accomplish this: 1. Lengthen the length of mortgages to 40 or 50 years. 2. Press down mortgage rates. 3. Increase tax benefits of buying homes. 4. More adjustable rate loans. 5. Etc., etc., The 10Yr Bond is at crucial fibo support in the 3.3% - 3.4% area. If this doesn't hold, we could see as low as 2.7% Hypertiger's analysis is dead on. There will be a horrible economic depression at some point. But not until mortgage holders demand higher rates to compensate for the risk. another (last?) round of refi's coming. then i retire (partial). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 22, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 Scottcardiff: If so many are buying puts, why isn't it reflected in the VXN?? Seems like lots of people are buying puts because they cost NOTHING!! Why not buy it when they are giving it away?? Seems like a no brainer hedge for the Riverboaters hopping on these Biotech Screamers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 PD, the problem with the SP Head and Shoulders pattern is that everybody knows it is there. IMO, the only way to reach SP 600 level is too get rid of all the sellers/shorts. And it is pretty evident that we don't lack for sellers of this POS market. It seems like the entire hedge fund community is still leaning short. Who in their right mind would sell above the the neckline of a HS pattern? My preferred scenario is a gap over the neckline up to 980 area. Base between 950-980 and then a gap down back under the neckline. Island top. Sellers all gone. No buyers until 800 and then 700 and then 600 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 donging HOV, DHI, LEN, NVR is free guaranteed money gratis Uncle Sam. Wish I kept them when I bought them back in Feb 2002. Even when market goes down they don't go down much then recover like weebles. But sooner or later it will catch up. But that could be much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 Scott you are right on. It makes me wonder, how different would the world be right now if not for one simple thing: the GSE's willingness to let their mortgages be pre-paid without penalty. Without that one gubmit subsidy, all the excesses could have been wrung out by now. PD - I dunno, that's one pretty uptrend channel they've built for themselves there. A self-fulfilling prophesy of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 My perception is that homebuilders and mortgage lenders are breaking out due to the intention of the Fed to monetize home values. This economy will be kept moving forward as long as home prices go up. As long as they continue to change the rules to benefit those borrowing money to buy homes, the bubble will grow. Numerous ways to accomplish this: 1. Lengthen the length of mortgages to 40 or 50 years. 2. Press down mortgage rates. 3. Increase tax benefits of buying homes. 4. More adjustable rate loans. 5. Etc., etc., The 10Yr Bond is at crucial fibo support in the 3.3% - 3.4% area. If this doesn't hold, we could see as low as 2.7% Hypertiger's analysis is dead on. There will be a horrible economic depression at some point. But not until mortgage holders demand higher rates to compensate for the risk. Or until potatoe head raines cannot place agency paper. This game may come to a close very quickly and suddenly. Foreigners especially europeans aren't going to be buying mortgages yielding 5% when they are losing that much per month in currency translation. The action in the big cap financials and tech smells like foreign liquidation. If it spreads to agencies and corporates its lights out for the mortgage bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest RiffRaff Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 Thanks for your input!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted May 22, 2003 Report Share Posted May 22, 2003 Scottcardiff: If so many are buying puts, why isn't it reflected in the VXN?? Seems like lots of people are buying puts because they cost NOTHING!! Why not buy it when they are giving it away?? Seems like a no brainer hedge for the Riverboaters hopping on these Biotech Screamers. Wild stuff, huh? Calls cost nothing as well and we usually see a lot of call buying at the top. I would think that such an extreme amount of put buying may actually be bearish at this point. We've retraced 60% of the drop from the neckline, so tomorrow's move SHOULD be the direction for the next few days. Maybe all the put buying on an up day was smart money piling on at cheap prices. Who knows? I anticipate a healthy gap tomorrow or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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