wndysrf Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 Multiple stick saves, no selling volume. Yet another doji day reversal, orchestrated by the Working Group. What else is new?? The Perma-Bounce Market. No unfilled gaps allowed. No resistance, only support. VIX and VXN unchanged on the day. Repeated "Buy The Dip Hysteria" +1000 TICKS into the close. Now, More Than Ever. Wall Struck Journal getting more interesting: Page C1 headlines: "More Investors Buy Into Rally" "Trading Activity Rises at Online Firms" "Does This Bull Have Legs" Retail Riverboaters are now wading into the treacherous waters. "European Insurers Flee From Stocks. Allianz, Swiss Re, Zurich have been dramatically cutting their stock positions. Many have cashed out, switched to bonds or hedged their equity portfolios. So if ever there is a strong bounce back on the markets, they are not going to be in a position to cover to where they were before." What does that mean? Short covering?? Another article documents the huge amount of yen selling and dollar propping by the BOJ. Yet another example of governments trying to outmuscle the market. Where would the dollar and yen be without this intervention?? On the insider selling front: ADTN CEO continues to win Market Timing Awards. He blew out about $50 million at the last top in January, and last week, he sold a stunning $160 million, close to or at the May top. Today's Riverboat Favorite was BIO, up 12% on the Mad Cow Hysteria. Another one of many stocks ignoring the bear market, a life of its own. Another stock chased by 4,587 Mutual Fund Managers and 8,749 HedgeHog Managers, all on the same day. Take it away, Riverboaters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...=ST&f=17&t=2581 Good night all. I need to rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 Butch Cassidy: Ah, you're wasting you're time. They can't track us over rocks. Sundance Kid: Tell them that. Butch Cassidy: [after looking for himself] Who are those guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 Maniacal activity in the bond market. Long bond goes from 4.4% to 4.35%, a more than 2% move. Three month Libor rate inverts with the two-year treasury-a typical sign of economic weakness. The FEED is backed up against the wall. The bond bull is still alive after more than 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 20, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 HPQ beats by 2 pennies on Pro-Forma earnings. Thank you, Carly...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 Anything that even remotely involves a PC or server turning green AH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quicktrade Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 HPQ beats by 2 pennies on Pro-Forma earnings. Thank you, Carly...... HPQ up .76 and climbing in AH ahead of the CC. QQQ holding 27.80 AH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 20, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 Yep, they won't even let us buy on the open to catch the other side of today's doji. As usual, only a gap up will do to get the Greyhounds moving. MSFT, DELL, INTC, HPQ all heavy green AH. Maybe Carly will drop a bomb on future guidance later...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 HPQ beats by 2 pennies on Pro-Forma earnings. Thank you, Carly...... HPQ up .76 and climbing in AH ahead of the CC. QQQ holding 27.80 AH Yep HPQ goes ballistic. No fear. The "What Me Worry Market". Uncle Buck still not feeling well. But who cares. Greenie has the Japanese pants down around their ankles and is f*ing them good. They buy deflating dollars and then buy our bonds with them. They will get F*ed coming and going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 A thought. I hope it don't get lonely. At least I won't have one of those sticky things in my head. Maybe we take the Yen from the Japanese and use it to buy GOLD. We accumulate gold and reflood the market with Yen. Bwahahaha. Greenie the equal opportunity f*er. Better yet cut out the middle man. Print dollars and buy gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flockofsheeples Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 I sell copier/laser printer toner to one of DZTK subsidiaries-actually, did should be the word as they filed CH11 2 weeks ago. Rumour has it that they stiffed HP for about $90 million. Think they'll mention it on the ccall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 Wind broken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 that was the best chart to illustrate your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 20, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 Realist: I'm with you on CALVF. I also loaded up on DROOY, WHT, VGZ, into my Screamers Portfolio. Just a 50 cent move will make me more money than trying to short ridiculous "beat by a penny" hookers like the HPQ Gap-O-Rama. No sense in trying to short this market, unless you are super quick and fast to cover. Throw five darts on the ISLAND 20 book. Short all five. Two of the five are guaranteed to squeeze you for 25% at some point. Not worth it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted May 20, 2003 Report Share Posted May 20, 2003 An excerpt of an excerpt from Jim Roger's new book: Adventure Capitalist. The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: The world's best capitalists... are in Communist China. An excerpt from Jim Rogers new book: Adventure Capitalist THE WORLD'S BEST CAPITALISTS By Jim Rogers The Chinese work from dawn to dusk. But not only do they work hard, they also save and invest more than 30 percent of their income. We in America at the moment save about 1 percent of our income. It is because the Chinese work so hard and save so much of what they earn that their economy is growing faster than ours. In the city of Zhengzhou I observed the Chinese work ethic in action in its most simple and primitive form: the attentiveness of a waitress, Mae Wang. Employed by one of the restaurants in town, her behavior was simply an exaggeration of that which was typical of all the workers in China. Mae Wang, when a restaurant patron caught her attention, literally ran to the table to be of help. Like a sprinter. Across the room. She ran to see what she could do to serve you. For me she was something of a metaphor, a motif, if you will, stated as part of an overture to the symphony of Shanghai. Shanghai lay before us like Oz. We were approaching what I predicted would be the Emerald City of twenty-first-century capitalism - within our lifetimes. Zhengzhou was the first stop on the beeline we were now making for the city. Nanjing was the final stop. In Nanjing, I looked out our hotel room window and saw building cranes everywhere I looked; it was here, in Nanjing, that someone informed me that fully half the building cranes in the world were currently in China. My itinerary, it appeared, was trying to prepare me, to educate me, for what lay ahead. We finally arrived in Shanghai, and I instantly fell in love. Again. Yet again, Shanghai had changed. This was the fourth time I had been there, and every time it was a different city, a different country. Had it changed for the better? The city is modern, full of high-rises. It is trendy, fashionable, sophisticated. And rich. I happen to like big cities. I do not dream of returning to Demopolis, Alabama, where my phone number, as late as my college years, consisted of a single digit. For me, Shanghai is one of the great, exciting places in the world. And I would be very happy to live there. It would be like moving to New York in 1903, as New York was really blossoming. Before 1949, before the revolution and the establishment of the People's Republic, the Shanghai stock market was the largest in Asia, the largest between London and New York. Shanghai was the center of commerce - and sin, the axis of everything in the Far East. In 1988 I visited the Shanghai exchange. To reach it, you walked down an unpaved road into a somewhat ramshackle storefront featuring little more than a thousand square feet of office space, and to buy stock you simply walked up to a counter, overseen by a single attendant, and paid for your shares. An over-the-counter stock was exactly that. The attendant totaled the transaction on an abacus. And in 1988 there were only a handful of stocks publicly traded. I bought a bank stock, more for its historical than intrinsic value. (The certificate hangs today, framed, on the wall of my home in New York.) At that time, in remarks recorded by a television crew, and later broadcast on PBS, I predicted great things for China: "This is history being made," I said, in voice-over as I purchased my shares. "This is the way American stock markets evolved over two hundred years ago. Someday I'm going to invest a whole lot of money in China, so it's important to know how things work now. Before the revolution, China had the largest stock market in the Orient, and if I'm right, someday it will again." The stock exchange in Shanghai today, a little more than a decade later, is located in a brand-new office building, a gigantic, broad, square structure containing a vast, ultramodern trading floor, where maybe three hundred people work at computer terminals. Completely electronic and growing, it technologically dwarfs the New York Stock Exchange, where, thanks to powerful anachronistic interests, brokers are still running around exchanging pieces of paper. Naturally, I opened an account. Earlier, to accommodate the growing number of foreigners who wanted to invest there, the Chinese had begun creating a class of shares known as B shares. The market's A shares were limited to purchase by the Chinese. By the time Paige and I arrived in 1999, all the foreigners, having failed to get rich quick as they had expected to do, had started bailing out, victims of just one more of the many bubbles that had burst, and the market in B shares had bottomed out. You know a market has bottomed out when everybody gives up in despair and does not even want to talk about it. That is the way B shares stood when I was in China. It was purely fortuitous - it happened to be that way when we were there, and I happened to notice because I have been around markets for decades. There was nothing but despair and disgust, outright animosity toward the B shares. They were selling for twenty cents a share, and I stocked up. I bought a lot of shares in a lot of different companies, first because they were so cheap, and second because I believed China to be the wave of the future; not knowing how any stock in particular would perform, I expected all of them to do well. Had A shares been available, I would not have bought them; there was not the necessary hostility toward them. It was the foreigners who had all dumped their stock, screaming, "Get me out of these B shares!" It so happened that within a year or so the Chinese made some changes in the law. The A shares and B shares became the same. And the B shares went through the roof, along with the entire Chinese stock market. For a lot of reasons my investment turned out to be a good one, but that is irrelevant (although the lesson of buying totally depressed shares usually works out - if not always so quickly). I have no intention of selling. I do not know what my shares are worth today. I do not want to know what they are worth. They are not for sale. I still own these stocks and hope to own them forever. I hope that they are in my estate. Certainly China will suffer setbacks along the way, just as the United Kingdom and the United States did in their rises to greatness. But I would have to be a sucker to sell my shares. It would be like buying shares in New York in 1903 and selling them in 1907. While I was on this trip, Zhu Rongji, the Chinese premier, was at Harvard Business School making a speech. And somebody, some aspiring something-or-other, raised his hand and asked, "Are you going to devalue the Chinese currency?" There had been a lot of speculation that the Chinese government was going to devalue before making the yuan convertible. We are not going to devalue the currency, Zhu answered. If you really think we are going to devalue the currency, he said, I suggest you buy puts on the currency. Now, buying puts is an extremely sophisticated way to profit when something collapses. But here was the premier of a Communist country telling this whippersnapper to buy puts, essentially telling him, "Call my bluff, if you don't believe me." The Chinese understand money, finance, capitalism. This was the premier of the country. This was not his treasury secretary or the head of the central bank or the president of the stock exchange. This was the guy running the country. He knows money, and that sophistication permeates the whole society - finance, getting rich, saving, investing for the future, educating your children. Compare that economic sophistication to the demonstrable ignorance of a fellow like George W. Bush, who recently, in remarks of his own, showed that he did not know the difference between devaluation and depreciation, an absolute embarrassment, especially for someone who attended business school. Forget that he is the president of the United States and not the voice of Communist China. Do not get me wrong; it is not just Bush. No recent U.S. president has understood basic economics. Bill Clinton did not even know that the biggest stock market bubble in decades was occurring while he was president. He did not even know it popped when he was in office. I would cast a pox on both their houses - the Democrats and the Re-publicans. Regards, Jim Rogers - from Adventure Capitalist P.S. In China, savings are not taxed, whereas here in the United States the government, by taxing them two or three times, discourages savings. Surprisingly, as I write this, President Bush has proposed shifting the U.S. tax system to one that taxes consumption rather than income. The change would be as historically significant as America's shift from a tariff-based tax system in the nineteenth century to an income-based tax system in the twentieth. Such an approach is critical; it is essential for the future health of the nation. So I hope it actually happens. Pudong district of Shanghai: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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