wndysrf Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 The G7 was a disaster. The BOJ snuck in a bank failure, conveniently on a Saturday. Snow basically trip wired the Program Robots counting on a dollar bounce, a selloff in gold, and a selloff in Treasuries. Roger Arnold called it again. Hedge fund managers e-mailing him have said that the Black Boxes have failed and now we are under damage control. The Black Holes Models careened out of control, unable to cope with the unexpected outlier events caused by excessive Reliquifaction by Al Green. Once again, all eyes are on the SOX, the barometer of the stock market, therefore the barometer of the Global Economy. So much for that inverted head and shoulders the Riverboaters were attempting to ride up on the SOX. Back to the Rehab Clinic. Way too much Ecstacy and Special K mainlined in an attempt to "perform" the required services for the Directors and Producers of The Matrix. Today was a day different from many others the last 6 months for the Bear Market Screamers. Today we saw a confirmed break on most of the stocks like COH, COCO, APOL, BBBY, YHOO, AMZN and all the rest which bucked the bear market trend. Today looked like the SARS virus may have creeped into the Pleasure Houses holding SINA, SOHU, and NTES. As of this morning, Friday's selloff in these overpaid Runway Models was considered yet another dip buying opportunity for The Players. Of course, The Players always assume that once they have seen these girls naked, they are provided a "lifetime pass" to bang them whenever they want without the usual "courting" process. So they "buy all dips" with a vengeance. But good things like that are always too good to be true. And ultimately, The Players are greeted with the unexpected "Sorry, but the last time we had sex is the last time. It's time for me to move on. Do not call me, ever again." Now the MTV Spring Break Fantasy of bagging a stick armed, shrink wrapped, large breasted blonde wonder with regularity has officially come to an end. Now we have to see how the Black Holes Models hold up, and if Auerback's "Financial Horror Show" unfolds from here. Stooltown, take it away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Jorma Regarding the stock ownership, I retrieved the following commentary from my archive for your reference ------------------------------------------- 10/30 00:01 The Wealth Effect -- Not as Potent as Some Suggest By Art Pine Washington, Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Next to the idea that there's a ``New Economy,'' the most ballyhooed concept in economics in recent years may be the ``wealth effect.'' ... ..... Indeed, Edward N. Wolff, an economist at the Jerome Levy Institute, points out thatthe 1998 Fed figures show that 90 percent of total stock shares -- accounting for 79 percent of the overall value -- were held by the richest 10 percent of American families. The richest 1 percent held half of the total. ... ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 "Bearish trend with BPIs turning? Suuuuuurrrvvveeeyyyy SAYS... " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Jim Cramer goes insane today. Talking about the decline in the dollar and his memories of 1987. " I think, first of all, that Baker's comments might have spurred the decline, but it was really the ridiculous nature of the portfolio insurance products being sold at the time --making you think you could be hedged against a market decline -- that caused the selloff to take on a life of its own. Second, we were much more overvalued then than we are now. Third, we had a tremendous outflow of Japanese money that summer and fall and it reached a crescendo at the time of the crash." "We were much more overvalued then than now" What? Was the Nasdaq trading at 80 times trailing earnings in 1987? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 19, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Boner Breakdown. These guys are in the alarm business, probably some fraud detected like ADT and Protection One. Front-running long term contracts on the income statement. Will probably see a lot of these. Thanks to Cybersaavy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 This could be it. :grin: http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...17&t=2569&st=0& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 The Indicator Oscillator crashed up to a 3.17 from a record-low 1.39 at Friday's Close. Major moves in the TRIN, the TICK and P/C ratios suggest heavy selling today (duh!!!). Lesson learned: When the Oscillator is moving down (bullish for stocks), only short overbought spikes in the short-term indicators (TRIN, TICK, PC ratios), especially if indexes are not confirming by moving higher (notice SP inability to move above 950, even with huge buying pressure as measured by TRIN and PC). Buy all dips that show fear escalating. Therefore, when the Oscillator is moving up, only buy spikes in the short term indicators to levels such as those seen today. Sell all rallies that show complacency. Now the question is when will the trend indicators (Bull Percents, Summation, etc)roll over? The market could fall quite a ways before these indicators even leave overbought levels on the RSI. In my opinion, we can still go to 980 area on SP500. It is just too easy to miss making new highs by a couple of points. Where is the bear capitulation above 950 area? I may be talking out of my ass right now, but the extrememly high TRIN reading today will have me buying the dip in the next 2 days, depending on the structure of the move and how the ST indicators act. IF the SP does go to 980, it is almost guaranteed that there will be massive divergences in the indicators. Which is very bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bullseatshitndie Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Jim Cramer goes insane today.Talking about the decline in the dollar and his memories of 1987. " I think, first of all, that Baker's comments might have spurred the decline, but it was really the ridiculous nature of the portfolio insurance products being sold at the time --making you think you could be hedged against a market decline -- that caused the selloff to take on a life of its own. Second, we were much more overvalued then than we are now. Third, we had a tremendous outflow of Japanese money that summer and fall and it reached a crescendo at the time of the crash." "We were much more overvalued then than now" What? Was the Nasdaq trading at 80 times trailing earnings in 1987? his comments are hilarious 1. we have a brand spanking new derivatives pyramid scheme going on now 2. we are more overvauled 3. lightning may stike again on this one. bullish inverted h&s on yen. will jap's take that $ home again? stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coboy Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 After constant beatings, I have become paranoid.. So : 1. 0.9 putcall ratio today, isn't it high ? 2. QQQ right at trendline passing from March lows and April lows.. 3. Why should they let it slide? What changed ? Did they run out of money ? 4. Ticks have been wound up.. So what if they they spring higher again.. From Linda: Summation TICK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 19, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Gold still trading up. Unbelievable...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flufflander Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Would like to add more bullion lower, will we get a chance soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Mark, looks like ROL lost its entire gain from March lows in just 1 1/2 days - ZAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Gold still trading up. Unbelievable...... More importantly, IMO, gold is moving up while the dollar is holding steady. US Peso bounced where it was supposed to at 92.8 Gold didn't stop where it was supposed to. Gold shorts may get crushed here. I guarantee gold shorts are beyond arrogant (can't help it, they've been right for over 20 years) about gold moving down. We could have a moonshot on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Friday's Stooltrading transcript. Today's was even more fun, but I can't post that until mid-morning tomorrow. Try your hand at Stooltrading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted May 19, 2003 Report Share Posted May 19, 2003 Agree with scott. We're at a point with POG where s/t may be overwhelmed by l/t forces. Sure, HUI is overbought now, but the gold market is overdue for one of its regular melt-ups. Clearly, a test of 390 is in the making. But you have to factor in how emotional this market can get and suddenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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