soup Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 Brian: My guess is a lot of the short calls are hedged q/ long spoos, one of the reasons we are even up here in the stratosphe. But, hey I hope you are correct, as I am as bearish as I get. I think we just may have to wait till next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 lol....cpst! I remember they did a secondary at $30 bucks a few years ago.within a week it was down to $20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 CPST Incredible how the market never fails to find another beaten down soap opera actress to mount up. I guess this will continue indefinitely. The junior, no-name gold stocks might me worked into the rotation eventually. Looks like CPST began life as a $45 stock. The start of the problem. Then it zoomed to just above $80 in the ?big bubble?. Most recently from $.75 to almost $1.50. At least they have a product. They probably have a potential future as oil gets more and more messed around with. The US military has decreed that most future vehicles will be hybrid. This may be due to the $164.00 per gallon cost of gas by the time they drag it out to bum-F Egypt. If F or GM decides to buy them for hybrid trucks and busses, they may thrive. If we return to horse power and rickshaws CPST won?t be needed. I heard GE is the possible buyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 I said last night that Da Boyz weren't going to let all those happy call holders take home the money on Friday-I still don't! Laslo Birinyi was quoted from several sources as saying "that as long he can remember he's never seen the call writers (the Commercials) in a position like this where they stand to lose HUGE" he is right-if they get the Spoo's to 900 they win big, leave it here or higher they LOSE BIG! So I am still looking for a sharp drop to the max pain level in the next two days. Now if Uncle AL is jamming this beast to the point where even the Commercials are blown out-then we know the future-don't WE! The direction is down for now and I am still SHORT. When bond yields cratered to a 55 yr low today there was some snot on Procto babbling about how these new rate would once again lower mortgage rates and quote-reignite the refi bubble-unquote he forgot to add -and increase the deficit and drive the dollar farther down the pipe, note the jerk referred to a BUBBLE as a GOOD thing-we are very close to a major implosion here, this thing is outta anyones control. Doc-I'd love to see your closing comments but when you hit the link it says bad gateway???-Trade Safe! Why not wait for Dell earnings and Consumer Confidence which should be good. I think Da Boyz get bent this round by the biggest boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Downtick Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 we are very close to a major implosion here, this thing is outta anyones control. I think you nailed that one brian. The Fed has got themselves in a pickle this time. Fix one thing, break another. Should be a historic collapse. That is also why I think this bear rally is so timely. You need to suck everyone in before the plunge can begin. People talk about how manipulated this market is. How propped up it is. That is precisely why you short this market! Propping and manipulation equals weakness. They wouldn't be doing this if the market was healthy. One piece of bad news - a shock - will send this market plunging. And nobody, including our PPT, can do a damn thing about it. I'm not changing my plan one bit. I'm staying short. Just avoid leverage and you got nothing to worry about. I can wait out this rally. It will end badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 BRCD getting after-hours haircut INTU rallying, I will short it tomorrow, there is more to the story on that one than a good earnings report I expect a merciless gap down in market soon, caused by "unexpected" surprise external event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 I think you nailed that one brian. The Fed has got themselves in a pickle this time. Fix one thing, break another. Should be a historic collapse. That is also why I think this bear rally is so timely. You need to suck everyone in before the plunge can begin. People talk about how manipulated this market is. How propped up it is. That is precisely why you short this market! Propping and manipulation equals weakness. They wouldn't be doing this if the market was healthy. One piece of bad news - a shock - will send this market plunging. And nobody, including our PPT, can do a damn thing about it. I'm not changing my plan one bit. I'm staying short. Just avoid leverage and you got nothing to worry about. I can wait out this rally. It will end badly. Anyone have any info on the huge put bought on the SOX? One of the first posts on IDS this morning, dont remember who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 BRCD getting after-hours haircut INTU rallying, I will short it tomorrow, there is more to the story on that one than a good earnings report I expect a merciless gap down in market soon, caused by "unexpected" surprise external event How much you wanna bet the 3-Day rule will apply to BRCD? What is the 3-day rule? About 3 days after a crappy earnings report on a former tech high-flyer expect a dead-fish upgrade. Thats what happened to CSCO this week. It was good for 8 or 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 Mogambo Guru has a great rant today. Yeah, notice that at the end of his rant, he calls a top in the markets in the next two months. Says it is related to "weird" action in the options markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quicktrade Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 I said last night that Da Boyz weren't going to let all those happy call holders take home the money on Friday-I still don't! Laslo Birinyi was quoted from several sources as saying "that as long he can remember he's never seen the call writers (the Commercials) in a position like this where they stand to lose HUGE" he is right-if they get the Spoo's to 900 they win big, leave it here or higher they LOSE BIG! So I am still looking for a sharp drop to the max pain level in the next two days. Now if Uncle AL is jamming this beast to the point where even the Commercials are blown out-then we know the future-don't WE! The direction is down for now and I am still SHORT. When bond yields cratered to a 55 yr low today there was some snot on Procto babbling about how these new rate would once again lower mortgage rates and quote-reignite the refi bubble-unquote he forgot to add -and increase the deficit and drive the dollar farther down the pipe, note the jerk referred to a BUBBLE as a GOOD thing-we are very close to a major implosion here, this thing is outta anyones control. Doc-I'd love to see your closing comments but when you hit the link it says bad gateway???-Trade Safe! Max pain hasn't had much effect the last few expirations. "Now if Uncle Al is jamming this beast to the point the Commercials are blown out- then we know the future-don't WE!" No, I'm not sure what the intermediate term ramifications would be. Are you insinuating we just keep going higher? That Al and the boys if they are able to blow out the Commercials that they have enough juice to keep us going higher? Inflation in the stock market??? Dow 36,000 ??? I say this half heartedly but it has been bugging me for a while. Is a cratering dollar going to keep these markets in a 1999-2000 style bubble? Can they inflate out of this mess? Consumer confidence in my opinion is the key to any recovery. The stock markets are so visible to the consumer not to mention everybody's retirements are in it. Rising stock markets could give the consumer a perception that things are good again. Everybody feels weathy again. With low interest rates and a lot of hype and spin, can they pull it off? Is there some sort of critical mass that might fix it all? Is this the plan? Quicktrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 Sorry Brian. One two many http's in there. Here's a good link. Doc's closing comment in today's Stooltrading. It's repeated in tonight's Anals to be posted shortly, for those of you who do not subscribe to Stooltrading. By the way, here's the transcript for YESTERDAY's, Stooltrading, Tuesday 5/13/03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 14, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 Glad I didn't go long on BRCD. That was one of my Riverboating picks. Looks like she got ramped up for a few nights, then the guy left her apartment while she was taking a shower, and she emerged to find that his business card had been taken out of her purse. Too bad...... But of course, the 3 day rule could apply. He could come back horny and ready, bring a cheerleader outfit to dress her up in, and ramp her up a couple of more days before her self esteem is really crushed..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 Quicktrade-Max Pain always has an effect! Da Boyz on the other end of the index trades (oex, e minis, spoo's) win and have won virtually every time. Now if the Da Boyz who MAKE the market are caught on the wrong side and lose HUGE-it tells us as Downtick noted that AL can't or won't stop pumping if it can't be controlled by those who run it it will implode downward in a death spiral not explode upward. II came out today pls note the number of bearz is now 23.9% the lowest since 1/18/02 which was a record low ticks below this reading-from there the market fell off a cliff, the number of bullz today at 54.4% is second only to last weeks all time high a few ticks higher. With few shorts to provide fuel upward and volume declining unless Greasepan is buying it will implode if Al is buying it can't go on very long, the Commercials won't take losing HUGE kindly. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 ABC News/ Money Magazine Consumer Confidence slipped a few points this week to -24. For perspective the low for this year (just prior to the war) was -27, the scale is +100 to -100. Immediately after the war the index shot up 13 points but has now given it back. http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/US...poll030514.html Two points: 1) This poll is not widely watched but correlates well and is predictive of the Mich and Conference board concon numbers. 2) A rising stock market boost consumer confidence under the right conditions. It does not materially raise confidence when J6P is not invested or when his pos stock that he bought @$50 rises from $0.65 to $1.50. Either way he is still out 95+%. Furthermore when J6P is conditioned to believe that bull markets will deliver 25%+ annual gains in his portfolio. Hearing all the talk of a bull market and seeing mutual fund statements swing from -10% to +3.5% YTD just is not enough to boost confidence as much as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted May 14, 2003 Report Share Posted May 14, 2003 Hey Guys, Newspapers in Australia this morning screaming "US govt warns of Terrorist onslaught" and our govt warning against travel to Indonesia...cant see them letting the markets go down in this environment...been here before,gives them every excuse(probably justified)to keep trying to prop the markets up. We know they have spent a fortune to get the markets to these insane levels,surely they have to just throw caution to the wind now...do they have anything to lose?? Brisbane bear..formerly Tony999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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