wndysrf Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 Who would have guessed that the second greatest stock market mania is now unfolding as we speak. Gordon Gekko used to go to extreme measures to comb for insider information, hoping to capitalize on a 4% move on a stock, a huge move in its day. Now anybody can say anything, at any time, make any forecast, upgrade or downgrade, and move a stock 50% in one trading session. Even the smallest, most obscure, tiny companies which have no business being a public company can be gamed for huge profits. All one has to do is stay glued to the SmallCap HeatMap and watch the Barfing.com tape, and wait for the inevitable ?beat by a penny? or unexpected upgrade by the hordes of anal cysts or whatever starter pistols may emerge out of nowhere to spark an immediate buying frenzy. Is it any wonder that there are so many HedgeFunds? Is it any wonder why we have yet to see any spectacular fund failures or liquidations? Is it any wonder why we have an explosion in the number of mutual funds every year? Strip Fashions gets boost from Q1 profit forecast (STRP) by Michael Baron Strip Fashions, Inc. (STRP) is surging more than 42 percent to $3.49 after the Van Nuys, CA on-line distributor of exotic dancer accessories said it expects earnings of $140,000, or 3 cents per share, for the first quarter, up from its loss of $613,000, or 15 cents per share, in the same period last year. Thomson First Call polled several anal cysts, which forecasted 2 cents per share. In a press release posted on its web site, management continues to believe that the company will meet or beat anal cysts? forecasts, due to heavy demand for its products. Pro-forma sales for 2003 are expected to exceed the $16 million provided in previous guidance. Ever notice the adjectives used in all these Barfing.com releases? Stocks are always ?surging? or ?rallying? or ?blowing past estimates?. Who would have known that after Doug Noland?s first commentary in September 1999, warning of Al Green?s ?Coins in the Fusebox?, that the Great Experiment was just beginning. That a virtual tidal wave of liquidity was about to hit the financial markets, providing speculators with an unlimited bonanza of Riverboating opportunities in the Nasdaq. And that bonanza would end badly, only to re-emerge again within 3 years, attracting even more participants, employing even greater numbers of anal cysts, talking heads, pro-forma estimators, cue ball $10 million dollar men, ex-CEO commentators, and all the rest? As Noland warned us, ?There will be a huge price to pay.? Everyone should check out the extraordinary piece written by Marshall Auerback today at PrudentBear.com. ?The unconventional policy options invariably moves the central bank further into the direction of perpetuating a financial horror show. Greenspan is the market?s Dr. Frankenstein, in effect trying to repudiate his own creation.? Buddhadropping was kind enough to drop in, taking a breather from his life in the real world: ?No more time spent monitor hugging. No big collapse until liquidity dries up. Until then, borrow and spend is the name of the game for the Bushites and other Texas flim flammers. They will deficit spend this thru their terms, what do they care? Their replacement of 'L.Ron Hubbard? on the econ team with a new deficit advocate is an indication of their commitment to the money press. The only thing that trumps this a Sigma 10 event that basically seizes the machinery. No amount of WD40 lubricant will then bail the fiscal policy. But without it I think we continue to see radical short squeezes off temporary lows and zero moves towards capitulation. The individual investor is essentially like a shell shocked patient just off the front from Verdunne. He has become unresponsive, irrational and is balled up in a corner, mumbling incoherently. He is no longer a factor and has divested himself of any sanity or responsibility to next of kin or family lineage. He has been successfully mind washed and is content to wave to wife, daughter and ship's officers from the tail end of the Titanic as they row away from the catastrophe. I would not underestimate the far right's ability to wage perpetual war and finance it with perpetual deficits that get continually rolled out into the future.? Doesn?t appear that we are even close to making a top here. More roman candles like YHOO, EXPE, AMZN, NCEN, COF show no signs of slowing down or reversing. In fact, volume continues to accelerate to the upside. Poor Meg Whitman. She will win the award for the worst CEO Marketimer. She offloaded a ton of EBAY stock at $90 last week. Should have waited. Why not wait until $200?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 As Noland warned us, ?There will be a huge price to pay.? Blow Blow Blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 wyndy, any takes here? http://www.amtdrt.inlumen.com/bin/story?St...pSbTWbKbytu3nti Network Appliance Announces Stock Repurchase Program; May Acquire Up to $150 Million of its Outstanding Common Stock Business Wire - May 13, 2003 16:02 waiting for earnings but they have to be decent with this right? just wondering....I remember DELL buying back stock that has now doubled.....dont know what short term effect this might have though *DJ Network Applicance 4Q Rev $241.6M Vs $204.9M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 Posted on IDS today: 2:20pm OT: AMAT earnings this afternoon. Prediction: earnings (beat by a penny), sales (miss by a big #). Plant closing and layoff should help them trim costs. Lack of pricing power and no demand pickup would give them no operating leverage - will be surprised to see any gross margin expansion. Sales miss - blame SARS! AMAT's order mix: 18% from Taiwan and 17% from China/SE Asia. Guess nobody cared about ordering new equipment when worrying about SARS. Overall I am predicting a big disappointment and a selloff on the stock. Caveat: Take my opinion as a contrarian indicator. :grin: 4:05pm I think my prediction was pretty much on the $: look at AMAT's new order mix: Taiwan 7%, SEA/China 5%; 3 qtrs ago they were 18% and 17% respectively. Unbelievable -- and it can't be just SARS. Foundries in Taiwan just not buying, and the production date for new foundries in China could be further delayed. In any rate, this is serious deterioration in their business. Plus, they have absolutely no operating leverage and pricing power -- gross margin at 33%! (it was 40-50% a year ago?) What a disaster... Now the $64,000 question is: will the market dump AMAT shares? Position disclosure: Full short on SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 witnessed the results of a traffic accident yesterday from a few blocks away - gruesome. it looked like a car had a "reflective vest" (the kind that road workers wear) and clothes pinned under its front bumper/carriage... it was a body, but i couldnt put the parts together to figure out what had happened - this morning i figured it must have been a motorcyclist pinned under it and dragged/pushed i just couldnt bring myself to go closer and look. so sad... same thing with this market - except for ST scalps of pullbacks in gold stocks, i cant bring myself to participate and get close - the market seems unrecognizable as a logical functioning entity. the whole "deal" just has me feeling uneasy with dreadful anticipation of some economic/financial fallout. we now have managed markets, helicopter money, debts booked as assets only to be borrowed upon and reloaned, etc. what is perhaps scariest is that ma & pa sheeple seem unconcerned with about the fall in the USD, rise in commodities, real estate/credit bubble or anything else, other than getting another refi through in 60-days or less and churning the cash injection back through the matrix. no talk of debt reduction, no talk of spending cuts, no talk of increasing savings, no talk of allowing the effects of the bubble to unwind (as it must) in a fairly natural progression. so sad... the nolands of the world, even though they are right on the money (pun intended), are beginning to sound like scratched tracks on album records... you know, the ones where the same songs have been played so often they are so worn-out that they lose their impact. will this end - yes will this end badly - yes when will this end - i dont know, but when it does end, i dont want to be standing too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 If the market does turn at the AMAT news, I would consider short the equipment suppliers AEIS, MKSI, BRKS, CYMI etc. These guys sell to AMAT and are at the very bottom of the food chain. No orders for AMAT, no milk for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 13, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 Thank god gold is finally slacking off. Hoping to buy more coin in the $340 area.... Watching to see if HUI pulls back down to touch and go off the 200-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 If the market does turn at the AMAT news, I would consider short the equipment suppliers AEIS, MKSI, BRKS, CYMI etc. These guys sell to AMAT and are at the very bottom of the food chain. No orders for AMAT, no milk for them... Oh I don't think that AMAT is going to stop this train. It may slow things down a little but by Friday, it will be yesterdays news. Actually, it will be yesterdays news when we open tomorrow. All that counts is the new spin and the new hot story and the latest pundit who says the bear is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 Does anybody know what's BB's take on today's action? Did he add to his position? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 Oh I don't think that AMAT is going to stop this train. It may slow things down a little but by Friday, it will be yesterdays news. Actually, it will be yesterdays news when we open tomorrow. All that counts is the new spin and the new hot story and the latest pundit who says the bear is dead. Thanks for the warning. I will have to eat my loss if that happens Can't fight the matrix, Jerry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 Here is a picture. http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...=ST&f=17&t=2505 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 read the auerbach article - thanks for the heads up. does anyone else in stoolville find it perverse that the our fed govt would issue debt, the FED would print up a bunch of pesos and buy OUR OWN debt with the newly printed confetti, and then expect the LT reaction to be lower bond yields? think about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 Thank god gold is finally slacking off. Hoping to buy more coin in the $340 area.... Watching to see if HUI pulls back down to touch and go off the 200-day. I think this is a short term gift. We should have 1-3 weeks of upside left in this cycle. Then lower prices to load up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 PD, I just have one thing to say about ETF's compared to your stockpicks from the latest months, : D : D: :D :D:D:D :D :D:D : : :: : D:D:D : ...all the way to the bank! If you can't beat the a-holes, join em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted May 13, 2003 Report Share Posted May 13, 2003 Gold stocks are the same as any others they appear to be in a trading range buy support sell resistance. You can of course maintain a core position at all times as you lower your ACB by trading in and out of 1/3 to 1/2 of your overall position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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