Keyser Squishy Posted April 29, 2003 Report Share Posted April 29, 2003 the best part is that $450M of the $1.4B supposedly goes to setting up "indpendent research" or some other such boondoggle... in other words the people who got screwed by anal cysts are going to pay anal cysts via the settlement funds? did you think something was really gonna change? Now where so you suppose they might find some honest, qualified accountants to perform this "independent research"... WAIT! I KNOW! If memory serves me there's a few good folks from Arturd Andersen that are probably still looking for work... <_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted April 29, 2003 Report Share Posted April 29, 2003 Great Anals Doc and Great Charts BB. Love that third one. How did you find out that little secret about moving the Gann lines to the date and not to price? "Ask and you shall receive".....it's as simple as that... If you really want to learn, knowledge will come to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted April 29, 2003 Report Share Posted April 29, 2003 For Black Belt and SG, I have the NASDAQ high for the year at 2360 (minimum target for now) and past August I see 8-18 month rally unfolding into the mid to high 2000's, 2600-2800 in 2004? Also I see us peaking this week on the QQQ's in the 27.83- 28.41- 29.38 range. Then we begin the journey to retest the October low QQQ @ 19.76 which if broken means we see 15.45- 16.34 or so. Talk about letting it on the line but hey only get to eat the honey with no bees to worry about only a few days of the year. I also see retracing almost the whole first move down by the second week in May coinciding with BB's May 11th topping date though I believe it will be a lower high and just wave 2.... after that date the cascading waterfalls begin... hsppy splashing..... Looking for honey in all the right places WillyTheBooh I don't know how high the Nasdaq will go. I will have to see how low it will go during the dip and how low it will be around the key dates. After that I will start projecting the upswing. The Nasdaq does not follow the cycles I track very accurately. The SPX is more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted April 29, 2003 Report Share Posted April 29, 2003 bb iknow its tiresome to explain the obvious to technical subliterates,but thus far, all i seem to get out of the ganns is an aesthetic pleasure; while all the sun bursting rays intersecting each other creating a geometrical carnival that greatly fascinates,i,without a legend ,or glossary ,or reference to degrees with a compass heading or something of an explanatory nature in ,say the upper left hand corner or somewhere,i,i say can only stare in gaping wonderment at what i know,through inferential processes,to be a technical rosetta stone--- The magic word for us dummies is PERSPECUITY,which i define as making all of the intermediate steps transparently available to cognitive organs slightly occluded All said with due respect bdrech There are two things I can do about it. I can keep on posting or I stop posting them. There are two objectives on each post I put up on this board: First one is to show what I see, even if people do not understand how I arrived at the conclusions. Second and most important, is to initiate some interest in the methods I use. After that hopefully the interest of the reader will lead him/her to study these methods on his/her own and come to his/her own conclusions which is the key to market success. If I can do something to help, is to make people think for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted April 29, 2003 Report Share Posted April 29, 2003 BB, Excellent work as usual. Out of curiosity, in your time work, do you give any significance to 9/30/98 somehow relating to 9/30/02 and 3/24/00 possibly relating to 3/24/04. Obviously these are four year cycles, but in your Gann studies/other methods, do you see any significance? I developed a forecasting model involving 27-week cycles that project this bear's low around 3/24/04. The recent corrective rally since ~9/30/02 is related to 9/30/98 in my cycle model. Curious to hear your take in your experience regarding these dates or 27-week cycles in general. Best, MN MN, You are on the right track 1998 is one of the years that I currently pay attention since it's 5 years (60 months) from 2003. Gann wrote: "Take a high, add 5 years and you'll get a low, take a low add 5 years and you'll get a high". The key here is which "high" or "low" do you pick to add the 5 years. So, yes, 1998 is important for the current year forecast but not related to 9/30/02 (at least not in my analysis) I have come to the conclusion that 3/24/00 is NOT a very important pivot. Although it's the all-time high, I realized that using the 9/1/00 high for the projections things align better as far as the cycles are concerned... As far as the 27-week cycle. I have a different way to track cycles. Every year I sit down and I try to forecast how next year will "play"out. All based on Gann analysis. I start with the short term cycles (the 5 year), then the Master Cycle (to use Gann words) which is the 20 year cycle and then the 60 year cycle. I also take a look at the slow moving planets and see which year in the past, they were on the exact same spot in the heavens. I then look how the market operated that year. I add all these together and then I come with a roadmap. Sometimes I have alternate scenarios that clear up as the year progresses. That's about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troy Posted April 29, 2003 Report Share Posted April 29, 2003 Follow this line of reasoning by me, Troy, in this link and is the argument why the bottom is the great bear is in. http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...t=ST&f=2&t=2328 The only thing that can counter this is one thing. If that $12 reported earnings because say $5 in 2Q03, $4 3Q03 and $6 4Q03 for a total of say $27 for 2003 still keeping the PE above 30 so that the PE must come down to the low 20s putting the S&P500 in the 600s or 22x27=594. Does this make sense to you'all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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