Guest Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 http://www.inman.com/hstory.asp?ID=35016&CatType=R Home loss rates fly higher Unemployment, aggressive lending add to foreclosure ranks Monday, April 28, 2003 By?Susan Romero Inman News Features ? Despite the still-hot national housing market, increasing numbers of once-employed homeowners are packing their belongings, turning over their house keys and for the last time walking out the door of what was once their home. The national record-high foreclosure rate has been flying under the radar of the housing market boom, but is nonetheless a result of employment and sub prime lending market dynamics. Silicon Valley's Santa Clara County logged one of the steepest foreclosure increases in the nation with 70 percent increase year-over-year from 2001. Indiana had more homes in foreclosure at the end of last year then ever before, and foreclosure activity in one Chicago area was called an "epidemic," according to news sources. Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, said local and regional accounts of defaulted mortgages and foreclosures shouldn't come as a surprise because foreclosure rates are highly correlated to job losses and mortgage delinquencies. Foreclosures are "heavily related to employment," he said. Add tanking stock market investments and tapped out home equity to unemployment in some areas and it becomes apparent why some homeowners have lost their homes. The cumulative volume of mortgage loans in the process of foreclosure nationally rose from 1.5 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2002 to 1.8 percent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2002, according to the mortgage bankers group, which conducts a quarterly survey of approximately 34 million mortgage loans. The growth of the sub prime lending market has skewed foreclosure data to some extent. If all loans other than conventional conforming mortgage were stripped from the equation, the foreclosure rate would fall somewhere within historical norms, Duncan said. Conventional mortgage lenders in the mid-1990s entered into what was at that time a cottage industry in subprime mortgage lending. Technology and new risk assessment methods produced better measurements of the risks in the sector and that made it more attractive to larger lenders. "(The foreclosure rate) reflects expansion of mortgage markets. Borrowers today who never would have obtained a loan now have a loan. The risk parameters have been expanded and there are more delinquencies," Duncan said. The bigger mortgage market and development of sub prime loan products pumped up the nation's homeownership rate to record levels, a positive trend. But higher foreclosure rates appear to be a byproduct of that paradigm shift. Foreclosure.com is gearing up to capitalize on the weak economy and anemic stock market. Web site VP Greg Sullivan said foreclosure properties are a "viable alternative" for people who want to invest in assets other than stocks and bonds. Foreclosure.com is a subsidiary of ForeclosureFreeSearch.com, another company that also collects and distributes foreclosure home data. "With inventory at an all-time high, the opportunities abound (for those with) access to foreclosure data," Sullivan said. That data parallels others' observations about mortgage market dynamics. Sullivan also points to aggressive lending practices in the mid 1990s along with today's economic downturn as contributing factors in higher mortgage delinquency rates. Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties in California, Maricopa County in Arizona, Cook County in Illinois and Wayne County in Michigan are among the areas with the highest foreclosure activity, according to Foreclosure.com's data. "Nationally we are seeing more inventories (of foreclosures) hitting the market monthly," Sullivan said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 Mark -- I do not believe that Roger Arnold is calling it quits altogether. What he said was that he was going to reconfigure the week-end show and possibly eliminate it because the time and effort wasn't tranlating over to his mortgage business. He seemed to indicate that the daily show would not be changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 8521 the March 21 closing high is still intact-Spoo's made a lower high today, just your average attempt to an end of month Jam! Could be wrong but this looks and smells to me like the waterfall begins in the morning. As to Mizuho (thanks-Rich!) that steaming POS is only the first of many to come. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 Article in Minneapolis paper, reprinted from some California paper, talking about how the automobile repo business is booming -- quotes a guy who says he's never seen business this good, and all of the repo guys he knows are busy. Repo guys get a minimum of $300 fee per car repossessed. Each car costs the BANK $6,000-9,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 Currently more then 50% net short. sold some calls at the high today (that thing about broken watches). :grin: Any who, The whole damn thing is corrective.I see a wedge or ending triangle but it allows for one more move up. i don't know if we get that move or not at this point. Maybe tomorrow maybe wedensday... Maybe NEVER. http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...t=0entry86688 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibear Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 Article in Minneapolis paper, reprinted from some California paper, talking about how the automobile repo business is booming -- quotes a guy who says he's never seen business this good, and all of the repo guys he knows are busy. Repo guys get a minimum of $300 fee per car repossessed. Each car costs the BANK $6,000-9,000 Then how come the @%#&@ traffic jams don't go down? Are they turning them right back out on the street? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wahoo Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 Gold price?? hope it's a misprint! http://forex-markets.com/quotes.htm Last June Gold at 334.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 Here are some target prices NDX- 1115-1125, SPX 920-923, Joke 8540. I am sure it will be hit and will mark the top, which should arrive on Wednesday. Any thing above this figure is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morass Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 At least we don?t let Asia lead us around by the nose. And if Europe dumps big time US will be the last joke standing or falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 As my Buddy the END said "maybe never"-did you see the volume today-it was well below our usual anemic numbers. Pull up a 10 day chart of the SPOO's-it speaks for itself. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 Here are some target prices NDX- 1115-1125, SPX 920-923, Joke 8540. I am sure it will be hit and will mark the top, which should arrive on Wednesday. Any thing above this figure is a bonus. Feed, your NDX number is only 8-18 points away! I like it. They usually manage this in about 10 minutes The only troubling part is my buddy Slothrop is still looking for something a skosh above this. As Rich pointed out in IDS, Sloth's good. Not to forget Simple Guy is also talking of a Wed top but wants the QQQ to be in the 30+ range (don't think that is in the same timeframe as Wed)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 Looking at the chart Joke target price 8525. Early morning dump will be brought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 28, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 I did not see the $6 billion Repo Blast today. No expirations, which means a new record high in the FEED index. Incredible how they can prop, pump, reliquify, and levitate these markets indefinitely, with no consequence to the U.S. Peso or the bond market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 Here are some target prices NDX- 1115-1125, SPX 920-923, Joke 8540. I am sure it will be hit and will mark the top, which should arrive on Wednesday. Any thing above this figure is a bonus. Feed, your NDX number is only 8-18 points away! I like it. They usually manage this in about 10 minutes The only troubling part is my buddy Slothrop is still looking for something a skosh above this. As Rich pointed out in IDS, Sloth's good. Not to forget Simple Guy is also talking of a Wed top but wants the QQQ to be in the 30+ range (don't think that is in the same timeframe as Wed)... Yes they do have a higher target prices. My works tells me indexes are lot weaker and higher numbers may come only on spikes, which will be sold off. If you are worried about few more points then u can wait for them. Joke should hit 8400 tomorrow then bounce. If the bounce is weak then I am happy with those numbers. By Tuesday end we will know if indexes are going to make higher numbers. U will know if there is going to be spikes just watch the futures when every one is asleep. take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted April 28, 2003 Report Share Posted April 28, 2003 I did not see the $6 billion Repo Blast today. No expirations, which means a new record high in the FEED index. Incredible how they can prop, pump, reliquify, and levitate these markets indefinitely, with no consequence to the U.S. Peso or the bond market. Mark they are using those Repo blast money to manipulate the market before the huge Bond auctions then Boyz will scoop it up and will find it?s way into bonds and stocks will get dumped. If any one has a history on previous bonds auction then plotting it on charts will reveal how those crooks do operates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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