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#91 crooked_analyst

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 09:32 PM

Well, they ended "Wallstreet Week with Fortune", with the usual buy, hold and diversify dribble.

Piles,

I see even some of your short suggestions of a week or so ago flew today.  Its gotta be close.

Bear funds now. Individual short picks once we roll and confirm (actually have two right now and they're just sitting there whimpering)

Its really close. :P

Its your perfect setup, get everyone believing its a "new bull market" with all the "breakouts", bullish spewing talking heads, etc. Yep, here we go again!

Damn, Piles....

Keep it coming.....at this point, I really don't care if I cash outta my puts - if they look like they're gonna expire worthless, I'll just keep adding Next Wednesday on any Blow out jammer.....this Market's starting to look like Dyan Cannon here...far and better than the last rally...the farther you get - the better she looks

#92 PileDriver

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 09:43 PM

We are at levels where it is not a bright idea to be buying, in fact pretty stupid, and that's putting it mildly.

#93 Crapper John

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 09:45 PM

Well, they ended "Wallstreet Week with Fortune", with the usual buy, hold and diversify dribble.

Piles,

I see even some of your short suggestions of a week or so ago flew today.  Its gotta be close.

Edit:  Actually they were not your suggestions.  Just on a list of possibles.  Still, they are crap.

Edited that post.

Check out this flash. Lots of appropriate metaphors:

"Maybe its not as bad as it looks. Maybe."

"What 'options' do we have?"

"You just gotta keep a positive attitude."

"All I need is a few raindrops and I'm otta here."



http://billyblob.com...eing/index.html

#94 longOnUranus

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 09:53 PM

FWIW, silver made close to a 5% move this week, and is up over 10% from its low at the end of March.

This is my largest physical holding. I always regret I haven't bought more. Much more than I do when I fail to long/short a stock or index.

#95 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 09:56 PM

Oh lord...

Well this is not going to make my day

#96 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:00 PM

Vic Niederhoffer has a whole chapter in his new book (Practical Speculation) titled "Cult of the Bear" and talks with and analyses Alan Abelson of Barron's.

I think it's a must read for all stoolies.. :lol: :lol:

Really those Pretcher, Zweig, Russell, Abelson...etc are always bearish, they are intelligent, have good points but spectacularly wrong for very long periods of time.. So how does that help me ? <_<

That's rich coming from a speculator who "blew up" in a most spectacular way.

Look's like he's learned his lesson.
Just like Gann, Elliot, Pretcher, Zweig and all the other usual suspects.

The guaranteed money is in selling trading advice. Not in trading.

:lol:

#97 Pee Brain

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:02 PM

PD,

kinda reminds me of an animal trap, where the animal traps himself by creeping head-first; further and further into the trap until he realizes too late that he cannot get out safely. he is just stuck awaiting the enevitable.

the good news: the govt added unemployed people who gave up looking for work back into their figures... if that the good news, then... :unsure:
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#98 realist

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:02 PM

Well, All I can sayz is "thrice bitten and thrice shy". From the previous three tops I have misjudged the extra amount of strength in the bear market rallies and have gotten bit nicely each time. The good news is that within 2-3 weeks, the top did eventually arrive and I was for the most part averaged in Rydex shorts from very near the top numbers and rode it about 90% of the way down before covering.

This time is no different it seems. Another personal misjudgement in shorting the market too early has blue balled me once again but my analysis is still on track. As noted on IDS before the bell, I did cover 50% of my RYTPX in anticipation of a 940-950 move. It is quite conceivable that 1150 be seen only if 954 is closed decisively in which case I would probably go DONG. It would take one hell of a catalyst for this to occur and the current indicators do not support this.

The feedback from several other timers is that all three indexes will most likely bang right up against the 12/2 highs and begin to head down HARD, all of which are awaitng for the "key reversal day" before going short. This patient reminder is what screws me each and every time yet I don't learn from it. I have learned with a 40 SPX point loss this time and will not soon forget. ALways a humbling and educational experience no doubt :D

#99 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:14 PM

Oh lord...

Well this is not going to make my day

Well, he does say:

it seems unlikely that it can power through all that overhead resistance without consolidating or correcting first.

In a monthly chart a *consolidation or correction* can be quite considerable before it even begins to make a dent.

So I don't think it's as hopeless as it appears, if he's correct, that is.

MWH

#100 DrStool

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:14 PM

Friday Night Quickie 5/2/03
 
Doc covers the daily charts. Complete Weak End Edition with long term views will be posted Saturday.

In your Anals tonight, Doc gives the target for the final high, reviews the data, and chronicles the short, intermediate, and long term market cycles, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the big picture.

Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltradingbpage as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet! The subscription sign-up page will be posted Saturday.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#101 Stoolander

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:15 PM

Just heard Jim Grant on The Nightly Business Report. Jim is still bearish. He was down right gloomy. Thank you God. I needed something to hang on to. I will post a link to the interview transcript tomorrow.

Don't mean to front run you Colonel.

James Grant Video Interview on NBR

Text Version

#102 PileDriver

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:18 PM

You are witnessing the greatest of greatest fools buying right now. Enjoy it.

The "profit taking" or "correction" is going to be a bitch. :P

#103 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:30 PM

I don't think I have ever seen such bearish despair on this board.

Hope I'm not the greater fool.

MWH

PS I don't think so.

#104 Yaryman

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:35 PM

It looks like good news.
The S&P 100 bullish percentage index hit 61 today.
Looking at a two year chart, that is high enough to be a top.
It certainly indicates more downside than upside possible.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$BPOEX

#105 Stoolander

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 10:37 PM

Even if I were bullish (which I'm not), in my methodology this would be classified as a "high risk long entry". I refuse to buy at the top of a white candle, regardless of the time period. The better risk reward ratio is to buy the first Dover Sole condition after the overbought breakout if you believe there has actually been a change in trend.





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