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#61

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:33 PM

Just heard Jim Grant on The Nightly Business Report. Jim is still bearish. He was down right gloomy. Thank you God. I needed something to hang on to. I will post a link to the interview transcript tomorrow.

#62 FeedFool

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:33 PM

If anybody is feeling really despondent about what is going on, ready to crapitulate or done so already, I suggest you take a step back off that ledge and take a peek at the following four charts before you jump. I think they are quite self-explanatory.

1. NYSE New highs : new lows:

Let me see what that chart is telling me? uuuuuuuummmmmmmm

No I am to young to think for my self without my broker.

#63 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:39 PM

4.  NYSE Summation Index

thanks for the charts. Is there a reason you choose 3 year charts? Seems as if the 5 years would be better at this point due to excess insaneness and all. :P

Striker, the main reason is that it's difficult to post such a large amount of data in such a small window and still see any kind of detail.

However, I did check each one of those charts going back to before the bear market started, and each one is suggesting a blow-off top that was NOT exceeded in strength even in 1999.

You will see that I am concentrating on the SPX. I currently don't have a position in the NDX and don't feel quite as strongly about where it is going in the immediate future.

I have a number of charts that suggest further upside is possible. These are mainly the various index charts that show this week's close a little below a resistance line or above a moving average. But there will always be targets higher up, no matter how high we go. What I find difficult to believe is that those four charts in particular have much room for further strength.

MWH

#64 Pigeon Drop

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:40 PM

Jim Grant has been bearish forever. It means nothing. He was bearish at the bottom in Oct 1998 and defiantly bearish all the way up the bubble.

#65 The End

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:40 PM

Feed,

There isn't much room to go up from here. I concentrate on the spx and you saw my count. The preffered is that we are doing an abc, with b over or nearly so. From there (here) we go down in c which people might mistake as 1 of 3 of 3. OR I have it reversed. Let's all hope so.

I don't like feeling this way at all. I have been sick over this. I cannot justify in my mind a move to 1100+ from here, with these valuations.

In my mind it simply cannot happen. This market better be going down in three of three soon or the next faze of this bear WILL destroy EVERTHING we as civilized people hold dear.(That will probably happen anyway) :cry:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#66 wndysrf

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:52 PM

Some snippets from Lance Lewis at http://www.dailymarketsummary.com

"You can see that speculation is really going into a frenzy now, as people are starting to really reach out and look for the utterly ridiculous to buy at this point. The environment can be summed up as the following: If it has a four-letter symbol and is a single digit stock, it’s pretty hot right now."

"Well, I thought we could have maybe seen some sort of exhaustive top earlier this week, and could maybe sell off into the FOMC before bouncing on what I expect will be possibly a shot of tequila from Uncle Al. Today’s rally, which takes us to new highs for the move in all the major indexes, obviously means that sort of thinking is wrong, and what we thought were signs of exhaustion were simply signs that the market was taking a breather. That sets up in the alternative an upside blowoff if Uncle Al gives the market a little shot of tequila on Tuesday. Or maybe the market doesn’t even need such a shot to continue higher, and people are simply just that drunk in bullish euphoria and “remember 1991” happy thoughts right now? After all, I’m sure CSCO’s Johnny Chambers will give us some sort of second half- “future is so bright that you have to wear shades” hopeful song and dance when CSCO reports next Tuesday night."

"We’ll see, but the market simply refuses to go down, and is getting crazier and crazier as we go. Once again, we’re back to where anything can happen, but I still think the upper end of the 9-month trading range or a slight upside breach of it is the likely best-case scenario for this bear market rally. I’m still waiting for the VIX to drop below 20 to tell me that it’s safe to wade back in on the short side, personally.
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#67 FeedFool

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:56 PM

Another 55 points on Nasty?

Posted Image

#68 brian4

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 08:00 PM

FEED-it's END's alternate count but my preferred count, in my view you are right 5 of C- ending diagonal. If it IS-Monday should see a large drop via one hell of an impulse wave. Today felt like, smelt like the blow off we have all been waiting for-wave A topped March 21 at 8522, wave B ended at 8233 on April 16 and today's close should be it. Now wave 3 the longest, strongest decline needs to suck in every bull out there as fuel for the reversal and I believe it has done that well.. Klingon GOOD post you should post more as my Pal the END says "welcome to the best damn site for people like us." Stoolander-kudos for that reversals as you say always, always come when everyone is looking the wrong way-FOKKER chin up we are there For you unbelievers take a hard look at Feeds chart and a hard lppk at Madame WH's too. I am short some and underwater but not a lot-when we break 921 I go 100% SHORT. Trade Safe!

#69 Crapper John

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 08:01 PM

Just heard Jim Grant on The Nightly Business Report. Jim is still bearish. He was down right gloomy. Thank you God. I needed something to hang on to. I will post a link to the interview transcript tomorrow.

Saw the same interview. Very uplifting; stocks way overpriced, Fed has no room, etc.

At the same time one of network news reports focused on the dismal job market. Enough to make mom and pop think twice of fueling the fire.

Gaming this thing has been maddening; losing ground. Reshorted Q's Turdsday, shit on again.

Bright spot: my IRA borker, who I haven't fired yet, got me into ICGE. Remeber them, the internet incubator, that topped out somewhere near $200 a share (split adjusted), got in at $0.37 and fell to $0.35. The piece of sh1t went up 25.7% today to $0.45. It's got to be about over when this pig flies.

Stayed short Q's. If gap up, hope for gap and crap. If pulls back, then watch the cycles.

Jimi,

That Jesse Livingstone (Livermore) quote is one of my favorites. The story of Old Turkey right before your quote is rich! Now if only all the shorts would read that, maybe we could avoid more carnage.

#70 Charliss

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 08:05 PM

...I don't like feeling this way at all. I have been sick over this. I cannot justify in my mind a move to 1100+ from here, with these valuations.

In my mind it simply cannot happen.

TE,

Why can't it happen? Will the money that moves the market suddenly have a moment of revelation, or, better yet, a sudden impulse to serve truth and justice and say to itself: " Hey...hold on. This is totally unreasonable..."

Or, along the same lines (sort of) will the barrier to such a move be the psychological process that George Soros outlines in his theory of reflexivity?

Finally, when you say "In my mind it simply cannot happen," more importantly, it cannot happen in your mind but it can happen in their minds. And there are more of them than there are of you.

#71 The End

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 08:06 PM

Good post Brian. for the record, 921 is a valid point to unload calls. Becuase I bought em early enough I will choose door # 909 as my stop while holding ample puts. I may add to the short side at 921 but 909 is my stop on the calls, for now. Watch we gap down below 909 at Mondays open. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#72 The End

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 08:09 PM

...I don't like feeling this way at all. I have been sick over this. I cannot justify in my mind a move to 1100+ from here, with these valuations.

In my mind it simply cannot happen.

TE,

Why can't it happen? Will the money that moves the market suddenly have a moment of revelation, or, better yet, a sudden impulse to serve truth and justice and say to itself: " Hey...hold on. This is totally unreasonable..."

Or, along the same lines (sort of) will the barrier to such a move be the psychological process that George Soros outlines in his theory of reflexivity?

Finally, when you say "In my mind it simply cannot happen," more importantly, it cannot happen in your mind but it can happen in their minds. And there are more of them than there are of you.

Good point Charliss,

I did not mean to imply that I won't play it. I don't have that much emotion when I trade for myself or others But, on this site I let my emotions off the hook. They need time to breathe as well.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#73 FeedFool

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 08:11 PM

Feed,

There isn't much room to go up from here. I concentrate on the spx and you saw my count. The preffered is that we are doing an abc, with b over or nearly so. From there (here) we go down in c which people might mistake as 1 of 3 of 3. OR I have it reversed. Let's all hope so.

I don't like feeling this way at all. I have been sick over this. I cannot justify in my mind a move to 1100+ from here, with these valuations.

In my mind it simply cannot happen. This market better be going down in three of three soon or the next faze of this bear WILL destroy EVERTHING we as civilized people hold dear.(That will probably happen anyway) :cry:

What we have is a triangle and last legs end around 940. Don’t say it’s impossible in this position. It’s plain and simple its there where everyone can see. If u read the preacher book it says don’t try and prematurely labels waves as u will end up being wrong? It will most probably be a triangle.

New sets of rules will come out when this bear market is finish.

#74 martialcomp

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 08:13 PM

John, at Trending123.com sent out a free email worth noting on Wednesday.

(site is free and so are the email alerts)

He says that the trend is going to change in a few weeks and it is going to be ugly.

He is going to send out an alert when he thinks the market has topped.

Here is a snipped of an unusually long email from him:

"If you are an investor in the broader market and do NOT trade,
(either swing or day trade) now is the time to start selling these
rallies and NOT playing the game. Investors are going to get raped
in this market by summer. We are going to depths in the NASDAQ and
DOW not seen in many many years and won't be coming out anytime
soon. I do believe after we have a consolidation DIP this week the
DOW challenges 8700 and the NASDAQ 1500-1500 level (Somewhere in
there) but I can't suggest to investors to BUY now like I could when
NASDAQ was in the 1200s and DOW was 1,000 points lower."

"I can't tell you anything other than GOLD is going to the moon, the
DOW and NASDAQ are going to crash and its coming and coming within
the next month or so. If you trade options or stocks and are long
SELL the next wave and join the short side or just comeback NEXT
YEAR.(I am serious when I say leave my site and come back in a year
don't even look back just run)."

#75 BAREister

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 08:16 PM

TA makes for terrific dog food science but time and again it fails so many and leads to so much unnecessary pain imo. Have fun gaming it if you like but forensic analysis of stock operation trumps it with alot less time and needless effort. Again imo. Though I respect the much smarter technicians on this board I too often see scenario after technical scenario junked and then reset. At what point does it pay to remain faithful and at what point does faith become fundamentalism?

Gosh. anUDDER fellow-traveler... :D :D :P :P :D :D


BARE had something unusual happen the UDDER night. He'd like to say: "I had a DREAM" butt someone else beat him to the punch.

Well, HRFF DID have a dream. He NEVER dreams about the stock mkt. Or, at least, never USED to. The UDDER night he did, by CRACKy!

The BARE dreamt he was LONG stock. $8000 worth. Why $8000? Who KNOWS!!! ANYHOO he was watching it go UP on something like ASStrikos, with live updates every few seconds. THEN it STOPPED going up. It started to fall, fASSt. HRFF picked up the phone to get OUT, BUTT (_)_) it was TOO LATE!!! The STOCK sank and sank and SANK. It just TANKED. There were these LONG vertical lines, one right after the UDDER. Then it went to ZERO. Now, being a country lad, and having grown up on a farm w lots of GEESE (which, BTW, make the WORLD's BEST watch-dogs - the moonshiners used 'em to alert 'em to the damnrevenuers, FUR ex.) HRFF knows his GOOSE EGGS!
He still is unsure if he knows his (TA? :lol: )ONIONS, however! LOL

it wuz HORRIBULL™!!!

BARE wunders why he would have such a dream, NOW.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger





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