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#31 Klingon

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 05:37 PM

I post rarely (okay, only once so far) but I just can't help myself right now. Let's get a grip people!

Let's recap: a P/E over 30 with fraudulent earnings, rising unemployment, massive debt, budget federal deficits, states on the verge of default, no room for interest rate cuts, a declining manufacturing sector, declining auto sales, an exhausted refi cycle, rising housing inventories, the approach of "sell in May" season, and very low readings on Scottcardiff's sentiment oscillator.

A bull market from here is simply impossible. Impossible!

The S&P500 is up 3% this week. The dollar fell 2%. They blew out a bunch of shorts despite only a 1% net gain. I say this is just a setup for a meltdown.

I shall now return to lurker status.

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 05:38 PM

Wait, SG said Wednesday which was 4/29 was the top, with 3-5 days of down to follow.  Not 5/1, 4/29.  That didn't work.  So what now?

He called Wednesday the top, but didn't get short at the close, but said that Wed was The reversal day. He had previously identified 930 as the top, I believe.

I don't think that there was anyway of predicting what took place yesterday. 5/1 may have been a big reversal day -- now we'll never know. Everyone now has to hit the reset button. You don't throw a stone into the pond and not expect ripples. It gave the bulls new life when they should have been in the fire. Doc mentioned something about that early today.

#33 wndysrf

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 05:44 PM

Hey GTNWORSE....

Are you still long from the lows???

Congratulations.

Just remember to keep a trailing stop at all times.....
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#34 BAREister

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 05:47 PM

new bull?

WHERRRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre's the....uh...er...ummm..

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"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#35

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 05:50 PM

Mark do you have any update from Ord. I assume he got stopped out of his SP shorts again today. You were right that Ord is better at picking bottoms than tops. Seems this market has fooled even the better technicians. The only person I heard that has made $$ is the system specialist guy on O'Brien's show, but I don't know how real his self-claimed profit is.

#36 Jimi

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 05:57 PM

"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I"ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight."

Chapter V, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

I remain wth you out here on the ledge, exercising "intelligent patience."

If things don't work out, at least I will have exhibited "patience."

I will then go out and work on the "intelligence" part, and maybe try again.

Stay groovy,

Jimi
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#37 wndysrf

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 05:59 PM

Jerry:

Ord might still be in. He shorted the SPY, not the QQQ.

He said he was willing to take about 15 points of heat.

McClellan Oscillator still diverging.

I think a pullback is coming. Things are maxed out here. But due to the large amount of breakouts and new highs, I think the pullback will be a buying opportunity, especially if the fear gauges start screaming to the upside.
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#38

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:08 PM

Jerry:

Ord might still be in.  He shorted the SPY, not the QQQ.

He said he was willing to take about 15 points of heat.

McClellan Oscillator still diverging.

I think a pullback is coming.  Things are maxed out here.  But due to the large amount of breakouts and new highs, I think the pullback will be a buying opportunity, especially if the fear gauges start screaming to the upside.

Just got off O'Brien's radio show - he was so bullish he can't see straight. He was telling his listeners "don't short this market!" because "the shorts will be squeezed like they've never been squeezed before!". And then when people wanted to go long, he told them not to chase it. He himself is flat, and is really looking forward to buying the next dip.

Mark what is your target on this retracement - a shallow one? or a deeper one into 850 area? What we've seen in the past weeks is that people are buying the dips, any kind of dips, and the reaction time frame is not days, but minutes. You left for lunch for an hour and the market was in green!

I have no idea where the big crowd stands now. I was told the short interest on Nasdaq is at all time high, but on the other hand you also hear people like Cramer and O'Brien so bullish. What is the consensus view out there now? Is there any way to gauge it? That'll be most helpful.

#39 FeedFool

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:09 PM

Look what I missed on daily chart a huge bear flag or ending diagonal check it out on 60 min chart.
Going up on lower volume is not bullish. Volume sucks. Check out normally happens next.

Shorts buying near the top? :D


Posted Image


Terminal wedge check it out on 60 min chart. Hey u Ewave guys want to try and label it? Is it 5 of c?


Posted Image

#40 The End

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:17 PM

This is my top count. I know it is only labeled from yesterdays low. If that count is right, we go down a bit in a c wave of 2 and then three UP.

my alt. is that A is (4) and B is (5)of 2(E) and we start wave three of three down.

I heard Prechter called today the TOP, ergo, my alt. count. We shall see.

Notice the trend line that is drawn was NOT broken to the upside.



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NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

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#41

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:27 PM

Feed fool,

Looking at the 1 year Dow, there is a ascending triangle that broke today. Is it possible we might be going to 9000 because of the breaking of the ascending triangle?

#42 wndysrf

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:29 PM

Jerry:

Tom O'Brien always has orgasms when the junk stocks really start moving. Definitely a sign that we are nearly done to the upside for now.

I still think that we will probably pull back to the 200-day average.

That will be the time to enter longs. Especially if some of these overbought indicators get relieved a bit.

Did you see the Nasdaq TRIN today?? Around .35 most of the day. 80% of today's volume was going into the 10 screamers of the day.

I keep turning bullish and bearish. But can't fight this momentum. Trying to short all the time is looking pretty stupid now.

I cleared the decks of all shorts for now. Luckily, didn't get hit too bad since I stayed with conservative stocks.

Plenty of action on the upside yet to come. I'll probably stick with gold and oil service stocks on the long side. Tech longs will be intraday scalps only.
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#43 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:30 PM

"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I"ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight."

Chapter V, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

I remain wth you out here on the ledge, exercising "intelligent patience."

If things don't work out, at least I will have exhibited "patience."

I will then go out and work on the "intelligence" part, and maybe try again.

Stay groovy,

Jimi

Interesting that exactly the same advice is given by

Templeton, Buffet, Munger, Rogers, and Soros.

But very few can resist the lure of the daily "action".

#44

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:30 PM

Just heard Art Cashin a little while ago say that it is still basically a traders market. Mom and Pop are not in yet. He also thought that a new bull market would need economic confirmation of things improving. Otherwise it is momentum players in the larger bear market. I think that's what he said.

#45 FeedFool

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Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:42 PM

Feed fool,

Looking at the 1 year Dow, there is a ascending triangle that broke today. Is it possible we might be going to 9000 because of the breaking of the ascending triangle?

Lower volume does not confirm the breakout. Need to get pass 8700. It was a real struggle getting near 8600.

If there were a real strength in the rally then we would have got 200-300 points rally. Breakout would have meant 500 points


8600-8700 is possible





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