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Please Permit Me To Interpret This For You


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Guest libertas
specie - are you thinking bonds are bottoming here?

i'm just saying that everybody thinks rates are headed to the moon

 

brilliant people like doc

complete idiots like some borkers i know

 

very emotional

 

based on my experience its very likely they drop

 

these jobs reports have caused traps for a long time not just this year but back in 98 and 2000

 

i think rates just peaked - depression ahead

FWIW I agree with you. Auto sales, chain store sales, chip inventories. All saying that all is not well. We'll see.

 

Rothbard's book mentions a "cluster of errors" as everyone gets their forecasting wrong at the onset of the depression.

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specie - are you thinking bonds are bottoming here?

i'm just saying that everybody thinks rates are headed to the moon

 

brilliant people like doc

complete idiots like some borkers i know

 

very emotional

 

based on my experience its very likely they drop

 

these jobs reports have caused traps for a long time not just this year but back in 98 and 2000

 

i think rates just peaked - depression ahead

FWIW I agree with you. Auto sales, chain store sales, chip inventories. All saying that all is not well. We'll see.

 

Rothbard's book mentions a "cluster of errors" as everyone gets their forecasting wrong at the onset of the depression.

how many warnings about deflation have you

heard on crapvison?

 

I rest my case.......

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Some one did some great chart work here ahile back comparring the 87 equity mrkt and the 87 bond yld chart (can't remeber if it was 30 or 10's) but anyway one of the key things in that period was after bonds took out there previous swing high yld level they went parabolic into august...granted ylds were at higher levels then but it ws the speed at which the riseoccurred. So where are we in a ver close situation llok at a weekly yld chart .. or monthly the previous high lyld swing pt was the august 03 highs on 30's we are right ther on tens we blsted through it.....one indicator that is often looked at is the long bond yld - sp 500 div yld.....a spread of over 6% is considered bearish and a spread of under 5% is bullish in 87 the spread exceeded 6% in august and stood at 6.9% 1 week before the crash...i'll be watching that spread, but more interestingly to me would be if there is a similar correlation using 10yr yld vs sp500 div yld ...what is its spread threshold? since the 10s are the key in todays mrkt...

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Orvack, what's the upper band on that chart?  It appears to give excellent signals. 

It's a Walter Bressert (a cycle guy Doc probably knows) trendline.

It's called the EMA%Diff Indicator. Percentage difference between 2 EMA indicators.

Since I can't have Doc working in my basement, when I like a chart, I try to get a confirmation from Bressert's cycle tools. I find it pretty useful.

 

(ProfitTrader for Metastock)

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Absolute carnage in the bond market - have to go back to last summer to see the same type of liquidation

 

All spreads blowing out big time - emerging markets puking, corporates puking, mbs puking, agencies puking...

 

All street firms now calling for a tightening at the June meeting.

 

We will get long towards the end of month

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Orvack, what's the upper band on that chart?? It appears to give excellent signals.? 

It's a Walter Bressert (a cycle guy Doc probably knows) trendline.

It's called the EMA%Diff Indicator. Percentage difference between 2 EMA indicators.

Since I can't have Doc working in my basement, when I like a chart, I try to get a confirmation from Bressert's cycle tools. I find it pretty useful.

 

(ProfitTrader for Metastock)

Thanks.

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