SpreadTraders Bulldozed

[purdymouth]

 

?... It?s going to get a good deal more terrible, I?m afraid.?

 

You can't handle the truth.

[wndysrf]

Merval, the "Boner Uninterrupted" Index, was down 4.5% today.

 

If it breaks down further from here, then we get a waterfall.........

[jickiss]

dear Shorty:

 

as jickiss comprehends events, (But jickiss must, and does, defer to HyperTiger, for sure in this regard)....

 

Volker decided to create a Bull Market in Bonds, by taking interest rates higher than nominal price inflation, for a period long enough to cause real pain, and to lower prices in such things as real estate....

 

certain Wall Street Types told a story, after the Event was in place, that went like this:

 

the president got mad, and called Volker into his office, and said, "Paul, you gotta stop this inflation, because, if you don't, then a Cadillac will cost over $100,000 dollars in a few years."

 

Reagan, however, never could get the spending stopped, but, in a "rock, scissors, paper game," the bond bull market was created. The bond bull market was the most powerful event of our lives, but it was and is still virtually invisible to the masses....

 

as HyperTiger has explained, More Money has been made by compounding Bonds, (long, call-protected us treasuries, on Margin, than in virtually anything else that can be named, with the exceptions of, mabe, Newport Beach Real Estate and certain Art Works)....and please note, by the way, that the Cadillac never went above $100,000 dollars (due to outsourcing (Mexico, etc), in part, plus the destructive effect of Volkers work of art on the Unions....they be disappearing, for sure, with manufacturing...the only Unions that count now are Firefighters, police and prison guards).

 

this is the movie that is about to be run backwards. or not.....

 

if rates start to zoom back up, what will really happen?????

it has been mentioned on this board, jickiss seems to recall, that the middle class in going to be in giant trouble.....

 

ever sleep in, perhaps, a Ranch-type house, near or at ground level, in the early spring, with the windows partly open for air flow in a nice neighborhood, where the probability of a break-in is .000001????

 

then, it is 3:45am. the sound of a cat is heard...faintly, at first...but then, much louder and deeper than it should be. Someone else hears it too, and says, "That sounds like a cat, but it does not sound right.....it just sounds waaay too big." And you answer, "Yeah, it sounds like it is about 12 feet high." Then the someone else laughs, for a second, and then just stops the laugh. it is cut off. You think about the impossible....and then the cat sound stops. Nobody dares to look out the window....

 

This feels like where we all are at this moment.

 

regards, jickiss

[purdymouth]

Merval, the "Boner Uninterrupted" Index, was down 4.5% today.

 

If it breaks down further from here, then we get a waterfall.........

That Merval looks kaputski.

[BearWash]

jickiss thinks that the gold price trend will reverse, and start moving up, big time, on one of the next five trading days; namely, May 10, 11, 12, 13 or 14 of 2004.

Jives nicely with our old friend Mahendra, who claims that gold will start moving up $20-$30/day in about the same time frame.

 

Disclaimer: I don't believe anything Mahendra says, but in cases like this I think about it when I want to feel good.

[Bizarro-Greenspan]

"And Governor Ben Bernanke - a genuine scholar of both the Depression and the decade-long period ending in 1951 when the Fed had printed money and brought as much Treasury Debt as needed to keep both long and short Treasury rates very low, had pledged to send helicopters aloft all over America and dump cash out to the public, the way ranchers drop bales of hay to cattle caught in the fields after a snow storm."

 

That's not really true in it's entirety.The Fed will also buy back debt from various sundry creditors,at full face or a premium,who the hell cares anyway?

 

Monetary phenomen is really a social phenomenon when fiat is used.

[orvack]

Crude to take a pause next week ? If it breaks the trendline, the weekly chart looks like a rocket launcher.

[orvack]

Seatbelts on ? Crude weekly :

[wndysrf]

The Energy Complex is about to get crushed.

 

I'm expecting a drop in crude to $30/barrel.

 

Here's proof. Check out the breakdowns. Exactly like the golds did a few months ago.

 

Oil Stocks

 

Oil Service

 

Remember. Everything went up during the Reflation Trade.

 

When it unravels, everything will go down.

 

No asset class will be spared.

 

None.

[Shebear]

Excuse the silly question but if inflation is indeed in front of us as many predicted, what would that mean to the current real estate bubble? Wouldn't it not crash as widely anticipated? ?

[wndysrf]

The Commodity Stock Index (CRX) is also confirming the break in the CRB Index.

 

Leading components include metal, paper, steel stocks.

[beardrech]

next, Kipling, for any who hold "da golds" long, especially on margin:

 

It's like a book, I think, this bloomin' world,

Which you can read and care for just so long,

But presently you feel that you will die

Unless you get the page your readin' done,

An' turn another--likely not so good;

But what you're after is to turn 'em all.

 

(From Sestina of the Tramp-Royal)

 

Kipling, megalomaniac par excellence, avid, yea, tireless promoter, in his younger years, at least, of the chauvinistic notion of "The Great Game" upon whose wheel of intrigue and machination countless lives of ordinary men were broken/consumed, got a taste of his own jingoistic medicine when the "page" "turned" late in his life and war's dark shadow of death crossed his threshold, claiming his son,along with countless other countrymen in the mud, stench and squalor of Ypres. He never recovered from the blow. Some say the loss broke his spirit. Humility imposed, at long last, at frightful cost. The mentality of egocentric men like Kipling, devotee of Empire, did much to induce the psychology of, lay the groundwork for the outbreak and ensuing ferocity of WWI.

Richly? ironic, wot?

 

"Likely not so good", indeed!!!

 

Ypres-Passchendaele devoured hundreds of thousands. Over 75,000 of those fighting for the British Empire simply vanished without a trace, whilst fighting, there.

bare

I saw Sgt York on TNB THIS MORNING--THE FIRST revisit to it in over 63 years---and I only remebered seeing one scene--I remeber that after seeing (only 11 cents admission at the time) this epic as an impressionable child of 7(?) everything in my neighborhood became a training ground f for my envisioned future: a lifelong trench warrior....

beardrech :cry:

p.s thanks for alll those smiling tennis balls--it had all the brilliance of a thousand sunrises but if not for my sunglasses i would have been struck blind--

[wndysrf]

Ironically, the Last Man Standing is the most wildly overpriced sector on the planet.

 

The Internuts (HHH)

 

If the yellow line breaks, expect some huge downside acceleration.

[wndysrf]

Outside of the energies, here's The Last Man Standing on the CRB.

 

Begging to be shorted.

 

Live Cattle.

[jickiss]

dear stoolies:

 

if the link to stockcharts works,

then,

$USD should appear,

with MACD 7,39,38 and 5,40,11

 

for 3 years daily, 210 day ma, and 34 day ma,

 

and, it seems seems to imdicate, to jickiss, there is no compelling reason to dong the doolar..

 

regards, jickiss

 

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