Jetlag Posted January 28, 2012 Report Share Posted January 28, 2012 Sovereign debt circle jerk http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted January 28, 2012 Report Share Posted January 28, 2012 I can't believe this behaviour, or maybe I should expect it by now I call this type of action the "Bankruptcy Death Rattle Rally" You see it on the equity-side almost everytime a company is approaching BK -- a large pop (%wise) just before the collapse. From Zero Hedge The Stuttgart bourse is Germany's leading exchange for derivative products and bonds, including euro sovereign bonds. It handles 60% of the transactions by individual German investors. And Greek sovereign bonds are suddenly trading like there is no tomorrow. Oh, wait.... There is no tomorrow? At any rate, trading volume in these bonds has more than doubled since mid-December and is now second among all European sovereign bonds. Only German Bunds trade at a higher volume. Bonds due in March make up 80% of the trading volume. The lure: they’re “cheap.” They go for 39 cents on the euro, down from 50 cents on the euro at the end of December, after a spike. So they’re volatile, and volatility leaves room for hope. Bonds due in May are trading below 30 cents on the euro. These investors are throwing the dice. Left to its own devices, Greece will not be able to redeem these bonds when they mature in March or May. Whatever they're worth afterwards will be significantly less than what they are worth now, if Argentina is any guide. If there is an agreement with private sector bondholders, and if there is sufficient participation, and if the debt swap actually takes place, then these bonds may turn into a profitable investment. But those are big ifs. One thing is for sure, which leaves little room for hope: the smart money was selling them those bonds. The most recent example on the equity-side I can easily reference is Kodak (per below). You see this exact price action ALMOST EVERY SINGLE TIME IN THE DAYS PRECEDING BK. Just as the article above outlines, the dumb money jumps in to buy a lottery ticket. Usually incited by some bucket shop rumor of a white knight, imminent refinancing, or other nonsense. But many times, for the simple reason that "it's cheap." However, you rarely see this type of behaviour in the bonds of a company going BK, because the dumb money just isn't there. Simply amazing. And quite possibly means that the Greek default is a just several days, or a few weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 28, 2012 Report Share Posted January 28, 2012 David Stockman’s Takedown of Private Equity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted January 28, 2012 Report Share Posted January 28, 2012 Wow, that Stockman is one sharp fellow. Excellent ideas about how to make the economy more sane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2012 Still seeing total lack of bears on all stock sites,most are advising to aggressively buy any and all dips.I guess when we break this ES 1305 to 1330 range we will find out what is what. Anyone shorting here?Or is everyone here buying dips too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted January 28, 2012 Report Share Posted January 28, 2012 Sovereign debt circle jerk http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696 The circle jerk goes one layer deeper. That is governments, including the US, are dependent upon the giant banks to fund their deficits. Exactly how would Uncle Sam have sold $100 billion+or- of Treasury paper every month since mid 08 without the giant banks? Send celebrities out to sell something like 'War Bonds' to the citizens like during WWII? I don't think so. This gets to the heart of why it was impossible for any administration much less Obama's to kick the bankers or why as they say "bankers own the place". It's why Greece and the rest always end up playing along with any and every plan presented to them, because the alternative is certain death of the government if it can't write 10% or 25% or 40% of the checks they send out every month because they can't borrow it. The circle jerk is a process involving the giant banks and central banks, ever more a distinction without a difference. The imperative is to keep the process intact. There is one other thing however and that is when push comes to shove the US, it's government via the Fed and it's own giant banks, intend to stay on top. If and when the time comes to alter the global process we will happily shove anyone else under the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted January 29, 2012 Report Share Posted January 29, 2012 Thanks TJ, good info. Jorma, I'm a long time fan of your smart contributions. Sentiment is extreme in here. Obey the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted January 29, 2012 Report Share Posted January 29, 2012 that Cody fellar over at Markit Beeyatch bin hawkin' Riverbed RVBD now it got pole-axed mebbe change the name ta Shatbed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted January 29, 2012 Report Share Posted January 29, 2012 Still seeing total lack of bears on all stock sites,most are advising to aggressively buy any and all dips.I guess when we break this ES 1305 to 1330 range we will find out what is what. Anyone shorting here?Or is everyone here buying dips too? The dog that didn't bark. Silence = sentiment indicators are SCREAMING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted January 29, 2012 Report Share Posted January 29, 2012 The chart you see below is a daily of APPLE, illustrating what happens when price gets a certain distance above its 200 day SMA in terms of price, not percentage. I have included most but not all of these events. Since 2007, whenever price got stretched around 70 points above the 200, it either pulled back and consolidated or sold off sharply. When the most recent high was printed last week, price was stretched 79 points above the 200, an extreme reading. This also after an earnings induced mega gap, which kinda looks like an exhaustion gap, possibly. The three trading days since the gap, price has pulled back in a tight range but held above the open gap area. Also, one can easily see a five-wave move off the 200 into the high, which, in Elliot terms, is suggestive that some type of top is forming, even if it is only short term. I think there is a strong possibility that we could see a decent sell off in Apple. Even if it just fills the gap below, that would be a decent trade from these levels. If history holds true, we should see, at minimum, a mild sell off and consolidation or something more dramatic that could send price towards the 200. This week should offer some clues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted January 29, 2012 Report Share Posted January 29, 2012 that Cody fellar over at Markit Beeyatch bin hawkin' Riverbed RVBD now it got pole-axed mebbe change the name ta Shatbed SHBD If I was aware of this equity I might have given it a Turd Alert at the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 29, 2012 Report Share Posted January 29, 2012 Correction Now or Never (Well not never, but you get the idea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted January 29, 2012 Report Share Posted January 29, 2012 SHBD If I was aware of this equity I might have given it a Turd Alert at the time... SHBD ...SHilent But Deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 30, 2012 Report Share Posted January 30, 2012 Still seeing total lack of bears on all stock sites,most are advising to aggressively buy any and all dips.I guess when we break this ES 1305 to 1330 range we will find out what is what. Anyone shorting here?Or is everyone here buying dips too? There's a little bit of wiggle room between here and a H/S price projection of 1387. Bulls might be dancing on thin ice, but it's probably worth waiting... until Doc gives the word H/S reference: http://trainingfortraders.com/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/E-Mini-SP-Daily-12-26-11.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted January 30, 2012 Report Share Posted January 30, 2012 SP bullkeyster proffered in nite session 6-pernt pokin' so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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