wndysrf Posted February 14, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Mr. Hanky: Look at the Dow chart from last year. Around June 15th, the market was in a downtrend, and there was a gap down which broke the February lows. The market smoked down to new lows in the morning, and then immediately reversed and went on a huge panic run to the upside. In the next 12 trading hours, the Dow went up 600 points. On the third trading day, the market resumed its downtrend, and we all know where it ended up. Attn: Vesselin Is there a way to look up the Dow BPI, the TICK readings on those days, and the TRIN readings also? Might be a similar setup. If so, we could reach marginal new highs on Tuesday, and then the Wacky Wednesday OE reversal hits on Wednesday. Otherwise, if Vesselin thinks the BPI was too low, then the bounce could last considerably longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 I posted some charts last night that had trendlines drawn as resistance and support with words of caution. Then someone says they don't trust my trendline since it didn't include a lot of points. A trendline needs 3 points to make it somewhat strong. The more points, the stronger it is. Trust or don't trust, use trailing stops to help you keep your emotions out of the game. Looks like TA predicted this upmove very nicely last night. The VXN got its head torn off today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 I say 15 to 20 months is all they have left... point of recognition will not be a short term event? I said when the price of gold was 320- 330 zone to plop 50% into physical... but now 10% should do the trick, people should be able to live with that...without radical changes in belief or lifestyle. buy and forget... (Savings) As for upward movement... getting in close to a top is the place to be I don't see a "crash" as it is understood anytime soon but ?accelerated periods of above normal declines? if I were to use Greenspeak are easily in the cards? wild cornered animal stage is approaching every day is one step closer Point of recognition will happen I figure when two more lows are broken the old ones and the ones after that plus the magic 4 year decline and the second half recovery doesn?t show up again? And that is if they take it to the limit and the status quo is maintained or as long as we keep following the path we are on the psychology holding the very fabric of space and time together will go poof in 15-20 months? it can blow at any time? So to make it simple there is 15-20 months left max, but it can blow (implode) at anytime? When it does blow (implode) Gold and Silver will rocket? The demand on physical will cause the ?paper gold? market to fly to pieces so you might as well start stacking (Saving) Gold and silver for that event? the market can easily mutilate you in the end but having a pile of gold and silver will save your ass? The economy is game over it is incapable of providing the necessary debt inflation to support all the previous walls of money (Reflation) and prevent them from deflating or imploding? The worst is still in front of us? Up to this point it?s been Mickey Mouse? ENRON and Worldcom were the weakest of the weak or the first wave? once the debt deflation runs it?s course the strongest of the strong will be drinking out of mud puddles? It?s a certainty? 15-20 month max or 14.5 to 19.5 if you want to get sticky? When I say the jig is up I?ve already tied a whole pile of deck chairs together and am sitting high and dry watching the Titanic sink? those still onboard won?t realize the jig is up until they begin to slip into a hypothermic coma unfortunately, and become fish food? They are doomed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Mark, Agree that the goal is to preserve capital. Closed out half my short position on QCOM at 33, plus closed out half my Mar 35 naked calls all at good $$$. Will let the other half ride until expiry day in March unless QCOM looks like it will close over 35 in Mar. Getting whipsawed in options is one reason I rarely buy calls or puts anymore. I sell naked options and have found them to be very profitable, especially the index options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Even though we broke up out of the descending wedge, I like these blue intersecting lines. My only concerns are that the MACD is trying to cross up, the stochastic broke up through its trendline, and the RSI still has room to move up after it bounced off support. Let's hope the intersecting blue trendlines hold, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 14, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Slinger: That's a good chart. Tuesday is likely to be a huge gap up day if nothing happens over the weekend. It could be a short seller's nightmare scenario, not being able to cover on Monday while the DAX goes up 7%. Need to start looking at the top players in the NDX and look for the strongest stocks to go long on. AMGN and EBAY have the best charts. DELL and INTU had the highest volume moves. QCOM, AMZN and ERTS look the weakest. Of course, the Supermodels could run another 5 - 7 points from here. Best to use the long weekend to pick out some long candidates, just in case. Too many to pick from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 I posted some charts last night that had trendlines drawn as resistance and support with words of caution. Then someone says they don't trust my trendline since it didn't include a lot of points. A trendline needs 3 points to make it somewhat strong. The more points, the stronger it is. Trust or don't trust, use trailing stops to help you keep your emotions out of the game. Looks like TA predicted this upmove very nicely last night. The VXN got its head torn off today. stops don't work when you hold funds,my only choice is to cover at the close.All I can do is watch these meltups and try not to freak out!(I hold drcvx) It seems a little silly to cover after such a huge move imo.I'm stickin it out although I would have liked to have covered yesterday! btw,everytime this has happened before the board freak out.I think we will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 "But I'm sticking with my promise of giving everyone ample warning of a bounces during 2003. Including the possibility of a new cyclical bull rally. "Not warning and staying short the entire time in 2002 was a disaster, and we lost lots of traders then. I believe that even Merciless got blown out, and that's why we haven't heard from him." Good policy, Mark. Tell it like it is. My mind is open. I fought the bull market all the way up during 1997-99. Too stubborn. I would have been better off with a trend-following override, no matter how absurd the valuations. The same comment could apply today. Keep up the good work. You've got your ear to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedAss Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Slinger, As my 16 Mo Granddaughter says when she wants you to continue doing what you are doing --- "MORE"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 sell into this rally is the smart play or ignore it. Aug highs again? Extremely highly unlikely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird D Durr Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 I say 15 to 20 months is all they have left... point of recognition will not be a short term event? I said when the price of gold was 320- 330 zone to plop 50% into physical... but now 10% should do the trick, people should be able to live with that...without radical changes in belief or lifestyle. buy and forget... (Savings) As for upward movement... getting in close to a top is the place to be I don't see a "crash" as it is understood anytime soon but ?accelerated periods of above normal declines? if I were to use Greenspeak are easily in the cards? wild cornered animal stage is approaching every day is one step closer Point of recognition will happen I figure when two more lows are broken the old ones and the ones after that plus the magic 4 year decline and the second half recovery doesn?t show up again? And that is if they take it to the limit and the status quo is maintained or as long as we keep following the path we are on the psychology holding the very fabric of space and time together will go poof in 15-20 months? it can blow at any time? So to make it simple there is 15-20 months left max, but it can blow (implode) at anytime? When it does blow (implode) Gold and Silver will rocket? The demand on physical will cause the ?paper gold? market to fly to pieces so you might as well start stacking (Saving) Gold and silver for that event? the market can easily mutilate you in the end but having a pile of gold and silver will save your ass? The economy is game over it is incapable of providing the necessary debt inflation to support all the previous walls of money (Reflation) and prevent them from deflating or imploding? The worst is still in front of us? Up to this point it?s been Mickey Mouse? ENRON and Worldcom were the weakest of the weak or the first wave? once the debt deflation runs it?s course the strongest of the strong will be drinking out of mud puddles? It?s a certainty? 15-20 month max or 14.5 to 19.5 if you want to get sticky? When I say the jig is up I?ve already tied a whole pile of deck chairs together and am sitting high and dry watching the Titanic sink? those still onboard won?t realize the jig is up until they begin to slip into a hypothermic coma unfortunately, and become fish food? They are doomed? Hyper............. Great post.........you always bring it back into perspective................... You are my favorite stoolie.............keep up the great work.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 But the rate we are going now, Capitalstool is losing members because not enough attention is being paid to the long side. Wndy / Buddah, I agree with you 100%. It all comes down to how one plays the roll. Is one a Bear, Bull or a "Trader"? I subcribe to the supercycle bear market theory. I also fully evaluate the possibilites of severe bear markets rallies at critical market junctures and plan accordingly. However, playing the roll of the "entrenched Bear" would harm my trading abilities as emotions begin to set in and conflict with my decisions. With the similiar low volume grind from December, the same scenario could be playing out. A triple top decending triangle on the COMPQ is what my intuition had forecased weeks ago, an advance up to 1400 would not surprise me one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gruff Posted February 14, 2003 Report Share Posted February 14, 2003 Also note how the descending red line on Slinger's chart could be met by a HUGE upthrust towards the eom. Such an upthrust would fill the mid-Jan gap. Last year, during ramps, wasn't a (somewhat sarcastic) maxim on this thread "All downside gaps must be filled"? Looking at the daily stochastics, I consider it far from improbable that the gap could be filled (it only needs another 3 consecutive days of today's magnitude). Opex Scam Week could light the fuse, followed by EOM rampage *and* 'War Rally' sentiment to top it all off. I only trade/chart NQ, and *if* it closes (daily) above 1000, I fully expect 1049~1054 before the downtrend resumes. Honour thy stops! gruff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 mark : disagree wholeheartily about a gap up if nothing happens over the weekend. THis week offered plenty for all, Thursday presented a nice opportunity to cover shorts, at least partial postions, but in that same vien today provide excellent opportunities to let the shorts back out. ANyway, if nothing happens over the weekend I would give much higher odds to a gap down than a gap up. Yd and todays rally,imo, was all about jumpung on the bandwagon for the war rally. Like you mention so often, after three years of bloodletting the only fear is fear of being out of the mkt. THe fear of not being 200% long for that next bull mkt. Check mutual fund cash levels now vs then ( 1991 vs today) ; or sentiment, and of course do not mention the final arbiter of sentiment: valuations. Now is much different than then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Of course the mkt has the the right to whatever it sees fit. I am but a pawn, a small speck of dust, if you will, in the great scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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