Sudaca Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 For the life of me, I just can't come up with anything for this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 Bears may fall often, but they sure have a way of bouncing back 616550[/snapback] A cat he is not...that sucker lands right on his snout! Youch... Today gentlemen, the Bear Cavalry arrived in force! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 Today's ABX charts. Why would anyone hold this junk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 Pulte homes is advertising a "scary" haloween sale... the only frightening thing (for them) will be a lack of sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 as i mentioned in ids,builders here are now throwing in the towel.major price drops from all builders.350k homes now 250k,.....250k homes now under 200k. this weekend 5 builders have big sales of 15 to 30% off one of the builders told me their fiscal year is coming to an end in nov,so they are unloading as much inventory as possible. i still wonder how many will actually close considering the cancellation rate is over 50%....and to top it off,most of the builders here primarily use countrywide for funding. i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 Bears may fall often, but they sure have a way of bouncing back 616550[/snapback] A cat he is not...that sucker lands right on his snout! Youch... Today gentlemen, the Bear Cavalry arrived in force! 616552[/snapback] Yup. And he's pissed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Private Skidmark Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 Living paycheck to paycheck gets harder. Good thing inflation is only 2.1%. That COLA should be a big help for those on fixed incomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 keep watching the restaurants,frivilous shops and big boys toys like Harley Davidson and co.... CHICAGO (Reuters) - The top executive of U.S. motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) raised the prospect on Friday that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession as he talked about his company's disappointing third-quarter results. Jim Ziemer, chief executive of the Milwaukee-based company, in an interview with Reuters following the release of Harley's latest earnings called the current business climate "tough" as falling house prices have soured consumer sentiment and cut into sales of pricey toys like motorcycles and motorhomes. http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge...NAS711020071019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 keep watching the restaurants,frivilous shops and big boys toys like Harley Davidson and co.... CHICAGO (Reuters) - The top executive of U.S. motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) raised the prospect on Friday that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession as he talked about his company's disappointing third-quarter results. Jim Ziemer, chief executive of the Milwaukee-based company, in an interview with Reuters following the release of Harley's latest earnings called the current business climate "tough" as falling house prices have soured consumer sentiment and cut into sales of pricey toys like motorcycles and motorhomes. http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge...NAS711020071019 616558[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 many,many people are just waking up to the fact that they have been sold a pup. Franchises were/are so ridiculously expensive,yet the sheeple piled in like they were goldmines. No different to real estate or the sharemarket.The rubes get shorn. Man the Glen Gary guys would be envious,the fish jump into the boat. http://smallbusiness.theage.com.au/growing...-900007700.html Some of the biggest brands in franchising are being accused of fraud, collusion, and unconscionable conduct against their franchisees. More than 30 disgruntled former franchisees from Bakers Delight, Lenard's Chicken, Midas, Michel's Patisserie, Hungry Jacks and Howard's Storage World have joined forces to take on the franchise chains. "At the centre of these 30-plus claims is what is known as franchise churn. This is where a franchisor sells a site or territory that cannot turn a profit then sits back and waits for the business to fold. The franchisor reclaims the site for a nominal price and resells it to another franchisee who inevitably fails a year or two down the track. Each time the franchisee spends up to $450,000 buying what he or she believes is a viable business and ends up paying another agreed amount (usually about $50,000) to the franchisor for marketing fees. Royalties and annual franchise fees, which range from 5-20 per cent of revenue, are owed on top of this. Business failures are easily pinned on the franchisee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 19, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 Today's ABX charts. Why would anyone hold this junk? 616553[/snapback] Uh, because they have no choice? Could you explain what those charts are for and what they mean? Tanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 the women featured in the story is $2 million in the hole and is facing bankruptcy. Franchises must be the greatest con ever visited upon mankind. I know a bloke who left the airforce to buy a dog washing franchise. He only had about 5 yrs left before he became eligible for all sorts of great benefits. He lasted about 6 months. People buy lawnmowing rounds,house and car cleaning rounds,pet washing rounds,you name it,they sell it. Pony up about $20k and you get a trailer,a few stickers and 3 or 4 suburbs. Then you give 10% of your hard earned money to the operater. I doubt most even make a wage. What a lurk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scully Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 Today's ABX charts. Why would anyone hold this junk? 616553[/snapback] Uh, because they have no choice? Could you explain what those charts are for and what they mean? Tanks! 616561[/snapback] There has been a good discussion of the ABX indexes at the Calculated Risk blog. Here is a comment by a reader from a few days ago which explains how they work: In a nutshell, the ABX is the price of default protection against a subprime tranche not paying. Each tranche is made up of 20 structures with about 40% of the mortgages coming from CA or FL. If you want protection, you short the ABX and pay the coupon. You are paid by the buyer of the ABX. In other words the ABX is structured just like a bond. To your charts. the ABX 07-02 BBB-index has a coupon of 5.00%. It has a maturity of 5 years. It's price yesterday was 29.44 making it yield 51.31%. If you want to buy protection against the tranche defaulting, it's going to cost 51% A YEAR. In other words, the market thinks this tranche is toast, it has for months, the argument now is how long until it defaults. Current prices suggest about 14 more months. The ABX 07-02 AA index has a coupon of 1.92% and closed yesterday at 77.78. This puts its cost of default insurance at 8.94% PER YEAR. Incidently, the ABX 07-02 BBB tranche is trading with a yield of 45.71%, so the market thinks that is toast too, again only arguing how long until it defaults. The ABX 07-02 A tranche is trading at a yield of 26.61%, so this tranche is also perceived to be toast with the markt thinking it will take about 4 years to kill off the BBB- and BBB tranches before defaults pile of enough to kill off this tranche. Is it significant these are trading lower. OF course. But bear in mind current levels suggest the market thinks the BBB-, BBB and A tranches are gone; it is only arguing about the time of death. The AA and AAA tranches look like they should survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scully Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 Please note that the above ABX comments were written a few days ago. They have continued their death plunge, suggesting that the AA and AAA tranches may be in trouble. Doc has been writing that something is in trouble out there... this is what is in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 19, 2007 Report Share Posted October 19, 2007 as i mentioned in ids,builders here are now throwing in the towel.major price drops from all builders.350k homes now 250k,.....250k homes now under 200k.this weekend 5 builders have big sales of 15 to 30% off one of the builders told me their fiscal year is coming to an end in nov,so they are unloading as much inventory as possible. i still wonder how many will actually close considering the cancellation rate is over 50%....and to top it off,most of the builders here primarily use countrywide for funding. i 616555[/snapback] Mark's girlfriend must be out on the market looking for a house by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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