DrStool Posted April 18, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 Oh God. Sybil Is Back. Now I know the top is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 Who is Sybil? Top is in or damn near, the positive social mood is so intoxicating that its affecting even Stoolies. BTW, what happened to PretzelLogic? Back in Feb we postulated that this pattern since July/Oct could end in a huge a-b-c-d-e pattern. I thought to myself back then that ironically the e wave despite being the lamest of all previous rallies would then have to feel bigger and painful to bears and generate the highest of bullish sentiment. Well here we are. Beware getting caught up in the Social Mood machine. Me, I just flip off the boob tube and analyze the situation in a news and hype-free vacuum. Major CIT ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 18, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 Somebody please 'splain to Piles about Sybil. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morass Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 I thought it was on this thread, however I can't find the post. It concerned someone commenting how they were watching Crapvision and some con artist was talking about strong earnings because exec's were more honest. The bullshit in this country is just incredible. More honesty and good faith intentions by corporate executives??? I've been reading articles in those mainstream investing resources by various con artist and just pure liars about honest accounting and other such horseshit. Nothing could be further from the truth. FORT WORTH, Texas -- One day after American Airlines employees agreed to annual cuts of $1.8 billion, the cooperative spirit turned acrimonious Thursday as union leaders expressed outrage over newly disclosed perks granted to executives. One angry union leader said if workers had known earlier about a pension trust created last year to protect executives' benefits in the event of a bankruptcy filing, they might have voted against the steep concessions intended to keep the world's largest carrier out of Chapter 11. The executive perks, which included huge bonuses for a few, were disclosed late Tuesday in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing was made after the scheduled end of voting on the concessions. "We are appalled and just disgusted. It's the equivalent of an obscene gesture from management," John Ward, president of the flight attendants' union, said. Flight attendants initially rejected their share of the $1.8 billion cost-cutting plan but reversed themselves Wednesday after the company extended the original deadline. Honest American Airline executives Then at Sprint, many thanks In an effort to trim payroll costs, Sprint Corp. is testing a "Voluntary Time Off" program in certain divisions of the company. Employees in Sprint's global markets group, information technology division, networking group and corporate headquarters this week were offered unpaid leave in blocks of up to five days at a time. In a memo to employees Tuesday, John St. Angelo, vice president for human resources operations, told employees the program is "strictly voluntary" and could "help employees balance their work and personal or family needs." The memo about unpaid leave was sent to employees the same day Sprint filed details of former president Ronald T. LeMay's $5.7 million severance package. Or how about from the economist.com Corporate scandals and falling share prices have forced companies to rethink their executive-compensation schemes. And yet, bosses are still being paid sums that many shareholders consider indefensible: in America, top-level compensation actually rose last year Despite the increase in pressure from disgruntled shareholders, and the scramble at many companies to rewrite compensation schemes, there is little sign of top-level salaries dropping in line with share prices and profits. On the contrary, median senior total pay among America?s top 350 companies rose by 10% last year, even as median total shareholder returns in those companies fell by more than 5%. If this is the amount of heat that executives are feeling after the past three years of scandal and value destruction, grumble shareholder activists, there is little chance that pay awards will be restrained once the good times roll again. Honesty, ethics and character - America Today A book you may like or dislike is, PIGS AT THE TROUGH by Arianna Huffington This book details in depth the CEO abuses of the last five years, and more importantly, the relationship between corporate America and its government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 Somebody please 'splain to Piles about Sybil. :wink2: Sybil, aka sinking, aka a few other noms, has had a series of run-ins with Doc back in the old days - late '01, and early to mid '02. What started off as mis-matched calls quickly degenerated into other miasma. Probably was one of the first times that Doc had to wield the posting scalpel... Back in the days of ikonboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 In SPX pts, generous estimations. Upside: 50 at 40% chance Downside: 300 at 60% chance 50*.4=20 300*.6=180 180/20 ~= 9:1 Given this risk/reward ratio which is the better posture to take right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweefraapp Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bevwenz Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 Looks like some Japanese Hedgies are getting sick of trading against the BoJ and each other since not a whole of retail sheep are left to fleece over there (a snip from an article on Hedgefund.net). Is this what happens after a decade plus of intervention?...... "....Two Japan-focused hedge funds, the Penta Japan fund and the Joho fund, have returned a significant amount of assets to investors because of the lack of liquidity in Japanese equity markets, according to reports. The Japan-based Penta fund has reduced its assets from $900 million to $420 million, according to a report in the Financial Times. The fund returned the assets to its investors and now allocates only 80% of the portfolio to Japanese equities, instead of focusing 100% on Japanese equities as it had before, according to the report. The decision was not based on Penta?s performance but reflects difficulties associated with the decline in turnover on Japan?s markets, John Zwaanstra, manager of the Penta fund, said in the article. Another Japan fund, Joho, based in the U.S. and run by Robert Karr, also returned a large amount of its assets to investors, according to the report....." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 An extremely accurate proprietary indicator I follow which has nailed every bear rally top during this bear market pegs this rally only having about 2% max upside and 3 +/- 2 trading days left to live. Do you feel lucky bully? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 Oyster posted this in IDS a couple of days ago. After perusing the charts...and studying Doc's cmaps carefully, I will now sleep very well. The end of the psychosis is around the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 The negative stochastic and roc17 divergences on this simple chart are obvious. The prognosis for the 'bull case' is poor, indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 Pushing on a string: The bollinger breach usually acts like a cattle prod. Happy Easter and Passover fellow stoolies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 Tanks Meta, The yellow "forecast" line once again impresses the importance to read and follow the current condition of indicators, not the "forecast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 I don't have a problem with contrarian views; I agreed with SG, long or short, more often than not. I DO have a problem with getting huffy and leaving. Its the Springerization of the current adversary/victim culture. Somebody above mentioned maturity, I'm not sure how that fits into this scenario. Anyway, its water under the bridge. I am preparing for the fourth ride down since Mar 2K, they are usually long and profitable. Pile has graciously calculated the risk/reward at this point. Since the Bear started, I have never found long positions (except PM's) comfortable for more than a couple of days. For folks like SG, Oy, BB, who can be be long and in their zone of comfort, fine. For me, given my available time, limited knowledge and distaste for trading against a long term trend, I basically go "long" by not going short. When shorts close positions and go long, they give the bulls a "double dip". I'm sure the guys in the options/futures pits can see this movement flux in real-time, and extrapolate that data to a max pain target: and take the market right up to it. I sense there are more bears trading the long side than in the previous decline set-ups. This should make for some very good 200-300 point drops when the time comes. Its hard for me to see many more 200-300 point upside days, at least for 2003. Or until we at least take out the March lows. Caveat emptor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 18, 2003 Report Share Posted April 18, 2003 Good post-PileDriver- Now I've been pounding the table that POS is toast somewhere between here and 920, my best guess is 905 holds. Now I keep a daily traders log or journal if you like and have for many, many years, it helps me recognize patterns and recurring cycles both technically and fundamentally-it even includes those times when Bear paranoia and anxiety are high-like now-which always means we are close to a top. Well a pattern just JUMPED RIGHT OUT yesterday-let me share it with you. Yesterday the VIX closed at a 10 MONTH LOW of 26.09, the P/C RATO at a light years low of .52. Sooo lets look back in time. On May 24/02 the VIX hit a low of 21.09 and the p/c ratio .48-here is what then ensued on the cliff dive that followed-closing DOW prices-5/25-111.82, 5/29-122.68, 5/30-58.54, 5/31-11.55, 6/3+13.56, 6/4-215.46, 6/5-21.95, 6/6+108.96, 6/7-172.16, 6/10-34.70, 6/11+55.73, 6/12-128.14, 6/13+100.45, 6/14-114.81, 6/17-28.59, 6/18+213.21, 6/19+18.70, 6/20-144.35, 6/21-129.80, 6/24-177.98, 6/25+28.03, 6/26-155, 6/28-6.71. Then as the VIX blew skyhigh the market rallied-but the decline was 1,095.10 DOW points from start to finish the last time the VIX and p/c ratio came together at their lows in price and time. By the way futures closed at a huge discount to cash yesterday. The message for the bullz is "if you don't learn from history you are doomed to repeat it" Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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