TheDeepBlueSea Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 If not already posted earlier... A must read on HedgeHogs vs. Mutual Funds, and a blow by blow of the failure of Eifuku... Repeatedly blown out by last hour ramp jobs. Sound familiar?? Chad Hudson - Feb. 19th This probably explains, in part, the days when the movments of the DJIA and Nasdaq are essentially 100% correlated. They go up and down in lock-step. The odds of this happening by chance given that they only 2 stocks in common should be remote. Yet it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 FNM bid $1.30 lower AH. No wonder the put premiums exploded at the close. If the homebuilders follow along tomorrow, that will be the final crack that breaks the branch, and we will be on our way to a relentless decline. Fannie Mae CEO warning about earnings in a conversation with Reuters at the Business Council summit in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Sold the march 900's at 838. :grin: I felt weird being "not short enough" so I bought the 895 march's near the close. That could turn out to be a mistake. We shall see. How did my fellow stoolies do today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Great post again Mark. The structured exotica scheme is still going strong -- my wife works for a major accounting firm in their structured finance group, offering accounting and valuation service to wall struck underwriting those CDOs and ABS deals. She has never been busier, overtime in the evening and during the weekends are rules not exceptions now, and the CSFBs and the Lehmans kept jamming them with more papers from WM, Wachovia, GE...It's been like this for almost two years and they are still hiring people to handle the ever-stronger deal flow! It's like what Doug Nolan said "the 34th month blowoff top in housing market." Amazing. She also got interviews with Ambac and XL with their structured finance investment team but I talked her out of it -- at least she could switch to the accounting side when things do blow up. But it's just amazing to see how long this craze in exotic paper has lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 rog, was thinking of your trade while watching the tape after i came back from the winegettin place. at 1:30ish you posted something about 2+ hrs left till expiration....what about tomorrow - am i missing something? BARE: yeah. or, sort of. some bradleys are differenter than others, but not all THAT different. the bigger differences come with geo vs helio, and 360 degrees vs not (you posted an amanita link at one point - yes? there are four of em there). i've been dying to retrofit a bradley, build the perfect beast so to speak, but don't have the right software for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 This Eifuku thing just totally cracks me up since you mentioned it a month or so ago. Note that the author of the memo did not leave a name (Will E. Banger) or a forwarding address (Rue de Ruin, Nagasaki, Japan). I have a feeling he's face down somewhere in a bowl of rice, skewered with a Samuri sword. Chad's comments re: hedge funds are a great read. Perhaps moreso than the PPT, their M.O. is largely resonsible for the "atypical" bear market we have seen and lack of capitulation. When all is said and done, probably circa 2012, it is this "investment" structure will be identified with prolonging the bear market much longer than it would have otherwise lasted. However, since this "new economic paradigm" has occured with AG's blessing, they are both guilty. The Waterfall Scenario is the only reasonable outcome of the collapse of such a highly leveraged situation. I can envision a move from 6500 to 3000 over a period of a week once things get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Phat, If Rog was reffering to spx options. Today was the last day you could trade those. Stock options expire tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 TE, Phat - current month series SPX options are not tradeable after the close on Thursday, but do not expire until Saturday. Thus one is captive for a day, on current month options only, held to the viscissitudes of Mr. Market. I found this out the hard way a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Can't wait for the OpEx noise to end. This market has been insanely difficult to trade. I'm still holding my shorts, hedged with calls (short from 930, hedged at 820, so I feel fairly safe here). I'm not trying to game this mess at all right now. Too much static in the charts. Still expecting a breakdown in the relatively near future, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Lou, I understand options expire on Saterday following the third Friday of the month. But, for all intents and purposes they "expire" on thursday for spx and friday for all others. (naked). :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Direwolf Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Mark,,,check out the action in CFC today...melted down to the 50ema and found some temporary support....looks real ugly with the HUGE volume today. short more? dw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Sold the march 900's at 838. :grin: I felt weird being "not short enough" so I bought the 895 march's near the close. That could turn out to be a mistake. ?We shall see. How did my fellow stoolies do today? Down 2.1% today. I'm up 11% on equity on this current expedition which began Jan. 10th. The MS upgrade dojied XLNX yesterday. Volume today was extremely low. Moel semiconductor upgrade was today. They "believe valuation is reasonable." (see CBS marketslush article below) They have probably corraled most of the sheeple into the gulch and will hopefully pull out the gatling guns tomorrow. Then again . . . . Sure would like some leg of lamb for dinner tomorrow evening. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/ne...93B67B5AF452%7D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 TXN buying back up to 18 million shares to cover stock options. From the latest S&P stock report on TXN: "value of $10,000 invested (in TXN) 5 years ago: $11,308" That gives you a whopping 2.26% rate of return on money invested in TXN. It's surprising they didn't hand out more options with such staggering growth and profits. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Tanks for sharing Mousey. Prztl, Good for you man. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted February 20, 2003 Report Share Posted February 20, 2003 Great post again Mark. The structured exotica scheme is still going strong -- my wife works for a major accounting firm in their structured finance group, offering accounting and valuation service to wall struck underwriting those CDOs and ABS deals. She has never been busier, overtime in the evening and during the weekends are rules not exceptions now, and the CSFBs and the Lehmans kept jamming them with more papers from WM, Wachovia, GE...It's been like this for almost two years and they are still hiring people to handle the ever-stronger deal flow! It's like what Doug Nolan said "the 34th month blowoff top in housing market." Amazing. She also got interviews with Ambac and XL with their structured finance investment team but I talked her out of it -- at least she could switch to the accounting side when things do blow up. But it's just amazing to see how long this craze in exotic paper has lasted. Glad you talk her out of XL Capital. It's a POS stock swirling 'round the Bermuda Triangle bowl. Not hard to tell that I'm short XL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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