Lock Limit Down Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 My My Already claims being made by "authorities" the near simultaneous crash of two Russian airliners last night is being attributed to "mechanical malfunctions". Also breaking...Chechen rebels denying responsibility.. I recall minutes after the AA 587 A300 crashed into Belle harbor New York,the fastest accident investigation in the history of the world concluded mechanical malfunctions caused the tragedy. The Dow had been in full melt and was promptly stick saved. Such conclusions so soon after a 1 in one billion twin disaster is beyond comprehension. The media again hits new lows with their counterpart matrix rulers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 Welcome to B4 the Bell, where the winning is easy and the money flows like water - down the drain. All that is required here is civility and a moderation of off topic posting during trading hours while the robots, 990N and the matrix do their thing. I am not cynical. Honest. I'm hamstrung this morning having had a computer effup yesterday so many of my links are missing ( and no I am not the missing link, I just have naturally bushy eyebrows) until I remember to e-mail them to myself from the work PC. Don't know what the over night futures are calling for - but does that really matter? How many countless times have they been a false indicator over the last 4 years? Well two downed airliners in Russia. Contentious elections upcoming in Georgia of the former Soviet Union. That whole region is a cauldron of boiling lava waiting to erupt. Oh and yes we do have a lot of US personnel stationed in and around there. For a variety of reasons both the US and Russia have lost the ability to effectively wage conventional war much beyond the scale we see in Iraq. Of course the efficacy of what the US is doing in Iraq is in itself highly questionable, to say the least. The Russia / Georgia situation is a lot more dangerous IMO. Both have nuclear weapons and the temptation to push the button is high on both sides given their conventional capabilities at this moment in time. The bear sleeps, but is not dead. Poking it with a big stick may not be advisable. Meanwhile we have given the green light to all who wish to cross our Southern Border unimpeded. Meanwhile we clamp down on those dangerous Canadians who supply the seniors with cheap drugs. An interview with an INS official and Chris Mathews last night showed just how concerned our current administration is really is about terrorism. It appears as though the INS (Now part of Homeland Insecurity run by the power mad clueless Tom Fridge) operational instructions are to spread out along the border at the rate of about 30 units per 10 miles and observe. They are not permitted to go chase those they see in their binoculars. The logic there is that leaves a hole where they were posted, permitting others to cross. So they sit and watch God knows how many illegals cross our borders every day. They could be of any origin since getting into Mexico or any number of South/Central American countries is relatively easy. So the current administration decides to go tramping off to Iraq to build an empire while throwing out the welcome mat on our Southern border. Our homeland won't begin to be "secure" until this administration lies on the trash heap of history. Memo to US voters - don't ever elect a Texan again unless it's Ron Paul. Uncle Earl is at about $45.50 and Uncle Bucky is doing much better now that all of the world's CBs have sent get well soon cards. I keep saying that those expecting Uncle Bucky to up and die soon are likely to be disappointed. For now, it is not in anybody's interest to have a dead Bucky. Bucky is over-loved around the planet. One day all will gather at his graveside, but sadly they will discover that his death was theirs also. When the top dog fiat takes a dirt nap all of the other little yapping fiats will look pretty sickly. How far off is that day? I don't know, but neither do you. My personal script calls for a global depression of historic proportions first. As a WAG I would say that lasts for a minimum of 5 years but perhaps a decade. After that we could see the much ballyhooed engineered hyperinflation last gasp of fiat or we could just see the planet slip into a coma for a hundred years or more. A stong warning has been issued for a severe internet attack intended to take the internet down over the next 48 hours. Feel good about having your money in the digital matrix? Forget the milk - got cash? You still need the gold and silver in hand while it can be had cheaply, but it's for later on, so you need the cash to insure your PM holdings aren't prematurely spent under duress. The average pharma company is spending 2-3 times as much money on advertising as they do on R & D. The pharmas claim the high US prices support the R & D needed to create the miracle drugs. Reality check - damn few miracles are ever created and they spend the money to advertise to primarily US consumers so they want and "need" more of their mostly toxic drugs. "Ask your doctor if Liquid Drano is right for you" "Hey Doc, I think I need the little pink pill with the green stripe. You know the one that makes guys have a permanent hard on and roll around in a field of wild flowers ." "But Mr. Patient that pill is for women who want to add radiance to their breasts." "I don't care Doc, I want it." Take it away, fellow stoolies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted August 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...id=518&ncid=716 Crapvision Most likely reason was the result of a breach of "civil aviation rules" This is insane. Mark perma bull, perma guest, Lay on Crapvision... Oil at 50 doesn't matter. Economy is strong enough to absorb the shock. Get concerned if we see 60. Hmmm.... 60 is now the magic number. Other observations as all put on their blinders.. Inflation LOW Productivity HIGH Growth perfect at 3.5% Equities are the place to be. Fed funds should be and should go to 3.5% He also mentioned traders should stay away from crude as one may get whipsawed with oil UP AND DOWN AS MUCH AS $3.00 A DAY. I see you have been monitoring the oil market with amazing accuracy Mr Lay.............. Of course not a challenge from the hosts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted August 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 Crapvision does a 180 Russian officials "not ruling out anything" Responsible reporting all the time. Futures power up since 4AM I would not be surprised if thats when the "no terror" story broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 My take, for today, or until proven otherwise,........which could happen in the next 10 minutes............cause this is the kind of "instant karma", we live in ...is Markets likely to power up..today.............even if oil is going up markets being perverse.........this will likely be spun as...........see market and oil can go up at same time. however.........this will set bulls up to get their nuts cut off in a few days. looking for it to get up and flop around in 1106-1112 area for a few days..........then........reaction down to test lower supports................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted August 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 http://www.mineweb.net/columns/american_no...freenotfair.htm I was aware the problem with LTCM was a derivative play but did not know it was a gold play that got them into trouble.... Snippet "Even though the gold price has risen some $150 per ounce since it bottomed in 2001, the report says market manipulation has capped those gains. Only when the claimed manipulation is ended, by intervention or accident, will gold soar to an equilibrium value which is seen as a four-digit number. The report dates the gold price suppression conspiracy to the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, thereafter commencing ?in earnest after the post-Washington Agreement gold price explosion in 1999.? It is alleged that the 1999 blow up which crippled Ashanti, since acquired by AngloGold [AU], and Cambior [CBJ], unmasked a gold carry trade run amok. Having borrowed gold nearly limitlessly to sell forward and invest the proceeds in higher interest bearing instruments, the parties and their de facto insurers, central banks, realized that the positions could not be easily unwound. LTCM?s apparent gold short position of 300-400 tonnes, which is equivalent to nearly a whole year of South African new mine production, could not have been settled without causing a run on the gold price that might have triggered a collapse of the financial system ...more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiHat Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 I may get to adopt these 2 .........Fred and Barney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 Mortgage Apps and Previously Owned Home Sales go...............................down http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040825/economy_mortgages_5.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 Excellent opening there yobob. Two thingies here. First, Canada announced (yesterday) they are planning to raise rates because their economy and inflation measures are all slipping into the red zone. Second, Canada's economy has a very large commodity based export component. Taken together these facts would clearly indicate multiple pressures for the CND (a.k.a. the Loonie) to strengthen. Which, indeed, it has been doing during the 'drifting' periods between CB blasts. It's those out of nowhere, unaligned with reality, CB blasts that are really starting to annoy me. Like this one. My dream is that someday one of these CBs overdoes it and the currency traders all run away from the currency and wreck the miserable fiat whereupon the CB will have to reverse its moves in a gigantic panic. I ask you, what the hell is the problem with letting the markets set the exchange rates? Why is that so hard a principle for the CBs to live with? If your country is buying or printing too much, your currency goes down, and vice versa. They are playing a game that they think they understand but, in all likelihood, probably don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 http://www.mineweb.net/columns/american_no...freenotfair.htm I was aware the problem with LTCM was a derivative play but did not know it was a gold play that got them into trouble.... Snippet "Even though the gold price has risen some $150 per ounce since it bottomed in 2001, the report says market manipulation has capped those gains. Only when the claimed manipulation is ended, by intervention or accident, will gold soar to an equilibrium value which is seen as a four-digit number. The report dates the gold price suppression conspiracy to the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, thereafter commencing ?in earnest after the post-Washington Agreement gold price explosion in 1999.? It is alleged that the 1999 blow up which crippled Ashanti, since acquired by AngloGold [AU], and Cambior [CBJ], unmasked a gold carry trade run amok. Having borrowed gold nearly limitlessly to sell forward and invest the proceeds in higher interest bearing instruments, the parties and their de facto insurers, central banks, realized that the positions could not be easily unwound. LTCM?s apparent gold short position of 300-400 tonnes, which is equivalent to nearly a whole year of South African new mine production, could not have been settled without causing a run on the gold price that might have triggered a collapse of the financial system ...more LTCM may have had a gold derivative problem, among others, but it was their extreme leverage in foreign bond spreads that was the major issue. By far. The gold derivatives may have been a multi-billion problem but the bonds got them well into the trillion territory. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've read ~1/2 the article and it's geting better as I go. The opening was simply a cut and paste from Vennaroso's excellent work and I was beginning to worry that the paper was going to be a simple rehash of old stuff. Nope. There's some new stuff in there, at least for me, particularly around the 1998 BOE gold slam (great job preserving the nation's capital there blokes- reallllly smooth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted August 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 Another brilliant piece by John Mackenzie http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2004/0824.html "Is this another one of Alan Greenspan's notorious head-fakes in order to offload the mountain of promises that can never be paid to his bag holding buddies? Do they care? They DO create money from nothing and ARE responsible for the current speculative environment, but prefer to deal in aftermaths. Our monetary muffin men? We've managed to sell quite a number of these contracts to foreign Central Banks and Safety Seekers while issuance was on the rise, well timed to a breather in the broad Equities Markets. The most recent breather had a tremendous amount of price destruction and internal damage without the major Indices going into a full-on meltdown. TRIN levels at astounding highs with very little price destruction in the indices levels? more rigging of markets"....more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 U.S. sales for the Hummer H2, the hottest vehicle on the market when it was launched about two years ago, have fallen nearly 22 percent so far this year. With most of its other brands, GM keeps production high even as inventories grow, and offers higher incentives to clear dealer showrooms. But GM takes a different tact with Hummer. "We're trying to keep the brand at more of a premium level," Ternes said. Still, GM began offering dealers incentives in July to help clear 2004 models of the H2, and is also offering a discount to consumers who lease a 2005 model. Hey Wndy, better get those SoCal hotties to buy some more! Giant Hummer's sales shrink The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted market index, a measure of mortgage activity, declined for the week ended Aug. 20 by 6.3 percent to 646.3 from the previous week's 689.4. The Washington trade group's purchase index, a gauge of new loan requests for home purchases, fell last week by 5 percent to 443.7 from 467.1 in the prior week. The Washington trade group's seasonally adjusted refinancing index decreased last week by 8 percent to 1,824.9 from the previous week's 1,982.7. Thirty-year mortgage rates, excluding fees, averaged 5.78 percent, up 0.03 percentage point from the previous week, but down 0.44 percentage point from a year earlier. Wow with that HUGE rise in rates you would have thought applications would have plunged. The mortgage business will drop not because of rates, though that could speed the decline, but from pure exhaustion. With raw materials, absurd mortgage ploys and rampant speculation driving home prices well beyond the reach of most mortals, the barrel has been scraped to the point where you can now see daylight through the remaining fibers of the bottom. A few more gentle scrapes and the bottom will fall plumb out with a speed few expect. Mortgage applications fall "In particular, the recent run-up in oil prices, if sustained, may exert a significant drag on Japanese economic activity," Greenspan said. Japan is wholly dependent on imported oil, which reached nearly $50 a barrel recently, but closed on Tuesday at just over $45. Greenspan added, "Of course the US is totally unaffected by oil prices - we're filthy rich and can easily afford to pay over a million dollars a barrel. It's just those poor stupid countries that will suffer." Fed chief says recovery is stronger and more sustainable, but Japan may lag due to high oil prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 Of course, this is today's 'news is noise' action. Durable Orders Aug 25 New Home Sales Aug 25 My framework has, and continues to be, that all of our troublems are summed by the word "debt". Hence, the careful balancing act has to be weighted towards preserving low 10 yr yields over other considerations, such as the SM. Which means that I would expect the durable order rationale (in Al's head) to go something like this: "If the number is too high, it'll spook the bond market. Can't have that. If it's too low, we'll spook the $USD jamming we've so carefully crafted these past few weeks. Can't have that. It needs to be weakly positive. Something in the order of 0.1% better than last month. It needs to be juuuuusst right." I think it's highly probable that the Durables number is subjected to what I call the Goldilocks treatment. Already we've seen the following get the Goldilocks treatment: May and June CPI May, June, July unemployment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 First, Canada announced (yesterday) they are planning to raise rates because their economy and inflation measures are all slipping into the red zone. Second, Canada's economy has a very large commodity based export component. Taken together these facts would clearly indicate multiple pressures for the CND (a.k.a. the Loonie) to strengthen. Which, indeed, it has been doing during the 'drifting' periods between CB blasts. It's those out of nowhere, unaligned with reality, CB blasts that are really starting to annoy me. My opinion (which when combined with $3 will get you a cup of coffee) is that we will see constant jockeying of currencies as they fall into and out of favor by the stampeding markets. Today it's the loonie, but perhaps tommorrow it's the Yen or Euro or Rand or whatever. It's all toilet paper with no intrinsic value or promise beyond being replaced with an identical piece of toilet paper. What happens to the Loonie if the commod markets take a cliff dive? ( I expect that to get under way very soon BTW) What happens if the Eurozone raise rates by 1%? IMO we have entered the competitive devaluation phase. It just won't look like it in a total fiat environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted August 25, 2004 Report Share Posted August 25, 2004 Greenspan says the data is inadequate to tell if there is a housing bubble. Sorry AG, this is one area where there is a lot of data.....there is data all over the place.....no problem at all with data and historical analysis in the housing sector. We know what homes are selling for, we know what incomes people have, we know how many people are employed, we know what interest rates are, we know what lending criteria and credit availability is. What the heck is going on with Greenspan? The statement is blatently wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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