Jump to content

B4 the Bell, Ilovebushday, Aug 17, 2004


Guest yobob1

Recommended Posts

Guest yobob1

Welcome to B4 the Bell. Please note, all participants are required to wear their brown uniforms (UPS uniforms do not qualify) while participating in this forum and goose stepping drills will commence promptly at 12:00 ET sharp. Be there or be executed. Would the person responsible for drawing the mustache on our Supreme Leader's portrait please come to Ashcroft's office and claim your darts. The claimant is entitled to a lifetime vacation in Cuba!

 

Yesterday's action was unbelievable. As in I don't believe it was anything other than another day of low volume market manipulation. Yippee oil down almost 50 cents. They drank the white lightning like it was water, now let's see how bad the hangover is. I have the feeling that some will suddenly realize that it wasn't really the price of oil moving stocks down but the simple fact that it has become painfully obvious that the second half of the year is going to be pretty ugly when the y-o-y comparisons start popping up because the called for miracle recovery - stage two -is going to be missing in action - and worse. That to me is the crux of the matter.

The extrapolation of profit increases through year's end was more than fully priced in. I forsee profits going backward at a high rate of speed from here through at least the next 12 months. I'm not sure the markets can fall fast enough to keep up. :lol: But what the hey, it's scamorama week so there are no limits to the depths of stupidity that will be displayed.

 

Asia sure didn't buy into our little rally and Europe is waiting to see what New York has in store before leaving the starting gate.

 

Naturally futures are recovering nicely. A golf clap if you please.

globex.png

nasdaq.png

 

Uncle Buck is static at the 88 level and Uncle Earl is basically unchanged from yesterday. Gold and silver are idling around with platinum displaying a small down move well within it's volatility range of late and palladium bouncing around a bit. When production cuts begin in earnest at the big three, I think palladium has some decent downside potential, like to the 150 area. Right now you can get a $5000 rebate on just about any truck or SUV. Watch that go to $6000 soon. In reality they are being sold $8,000 to $10,000 below msrp including the butt ugly way too fricking wide fuel sucking Hummers.

 

Locally gasoline prices popped up 2 cents yesterday morning to $1.91 with diesel remaining 10 to 12 cents higher. Something else I have noted that might indicate a somewhat artificial pricing environment is the spread between the discount stations and the "majors" located at peak price locations, such as a Chevron station right on an off ramp. Now that spread is about 4-6 cents. Normally it is 10 cents or more.

 

Costco is now offering discount caskets. Seriously. Lowes is countering by suggesting that their Char-Broil Flames of Hell 12000 barbeque can also be used as a home creamatorium, while Home Repot is offering their new line of discount body bags for the truly thrifty, dirt and hole not included. Aren't you glad you worked your butts off so your kids can dispose of you on the cheap? Heck they may not wait until you've stopped breathing if they can get a rebate and zero percent financing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 307
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Guest yobob1

.... The companies which are laying off workers are doing so in order to retain bottom-line earnings. As a leading indicator of stock market over-valuation, consider this fresh report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: ?Employment in financial activities fell by 23,000 in July. The credit intermediation industry, which includes mortgage banking, shed 16,000 jobs over the month. Securities, commodity contracts, and investments lost 4,000 jobs.? .....

 

.... A contraction in new loan originations will have a dramatic effect, and not just on the health of mortgage companies. Lower earnings for this important sector will raise the consolidated price-to-earnings ratios of the major stock indexes. In a real estate contraction, the stock market and employment will adjust long before the main event, which is the collapse of real estate properties and valuations.

 

Real Estate - Looking good!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning Yobob.

 

I trust Idaho is treating you well.

 

Over here on the Eastern seaboard it is business as usual.

 

And, as usual, I find that nobody has any appetite to even talk about any of the issues I consider substantive.

 

"The US government is bankrupt you say? Hmmm. I'd rather talk about the US prospects in Men's field hockey instead..."

 

I am pretty much of a pariah at work now. Which I deserve because I simply do not have as much passion as everyone else for figuring out how to help major multi-national companies save a few sheckles.

 

While everyone else is scheming and braining about how to win more business, I find my mind wandering sometimes straying into "out-of-body" territory as the little voice pops up in my head and says "what the hell are you doing here?".

 

Sometimes my brain surveys the situation and busts out in that little ditty from Sesame street; "One of these things, is not like the others ..."; which causes me to smile and then not be able to explain why when caught.

 

But I think they've all caught on.

 

I'm not fooling anybody anymore. I believe that we are not even doing anything as productive as re-arranging the deck chairs - straightening up the deck-chair pillows perhaps - so I am less than engaged in my work.

 

Of course, I could have it all wrong.

 

Perhaps there is some super-secret technology offering unlimited free energy to instantly replace oil and plug right into the existing energy infrastructure so we won't need a 20 year lead time to re-tool.

 

Perhaps GM seeds will be developed that will plant, fertilize, and harvest themselves.

 

Perhaps it is possible to spend your way to prosperity.

 

Perhaps we can trust unlimited, unaccountable power in the hands of gubmint minarets.

 

Perhaps we are making the world a safer place.

 

Perhaps.

 

Or perhaps belief in any or all of the above is proof of clinically pathological denial. Time will tell.

 

Humans may not be as sensitive as dogs to detecting earthquakes before they strike, but dogs, bless their happy wagging little tails, are exceptionally poor at detecting the pre-tremors of a Kondratief winter.

 

My spidey senses have been tingling for a while and something is coming. But, unlike Tonto, I cannot tell how many hoofs are on the ground, how far away they are, or even what direction they are coming from.

 

Oh well, off to work.

 

"One of these things, is not like the other,..."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Updates to the Treasony Dept. "debt to the penny" website have been laggardly and odd.

 

The typical pattern, right up until about when Snow announced to the world that congress may have to raise the debt ceiling soon, was to see a relatively orderly progression of between $1B-$3B advance per business day.

 

Ever since the announcement, it's been stuck.

 

Remember, August is not one of the four months where quarterly tax receipts com in. But even if it were, the tax receipts tend to come in on the due date. Not evenly across the month to keep the number from budging.

 

Given the horrendous $69B deficit reported for July (this is the Fed deficit, not trade) I suspect that it is highly unlikely that government outlays have exactly matched inlays(?) for August.

 

This will be one of those months where they shuffle invoices and bank accounts until one day, suddenly, the debt will pop for $50-$60B and cause the Mogambu to run screaming to his sofa-cushion bunker.

 

Current                Amount

 

  08/13/2004        $7,312,230,696,984.50

 

 

  Current

    Month

 

  08/12/2004        $7,312,306,434,333.71

  08/11/2004        $7,305,246,621,955.51

  08/10/2004        $7,308,629,683,239.34

  08/09/2004        $7,305,298,980,147.07

  08/06/2004        $7,304,927,057,132.91

  08/05/2004        $7,305,957,273,110.85

  08/04/2004        $7,300,833,399,186.25

  08/03/2004        $7,299,762,420,227.71

  08/02/2004        $7,303,319,122,668.55

 

    Prior

    Months

 

  07/30/2004        $7,316,567,571,232.89

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is 'old news', but more evidence that the 1st quarter's low long-term interest and mini-refinancing boom were brought to you courtesy of Japan.

 

As Doc said yesterday, refinancing booms are now part of history. But what will keep the credit bubble pumped up? :blink:

 

Japan bought a net $21.2 billion of Treasuries in June, up from $15.7 billion in May. Japan is the largest foreign holder of Treasuries, accounting for $689 billion, followed by China, with $164.8 billion. China purchased a net $700 million of Treasuries in June, down from $3.1 billion the previous month.

 

Japan increased its ownership of Treasuries even as the Bank of Japan, the country's central bank, refrained from selling its currency and buying dollars for a fourth month.

 

The Bank of Japan tried to hold down the value of its currency by selling about $290 billion worth of yen for United States dollars in the first quarter, investing much of the proceeds in Treasuries. China buys dollars to ensure that its currency, the yuan, stays at a value of about 8.3 to the dollar.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/17/business...s/17invest.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Updates to the Treasony Dept. "debt to the penny" website have been laggardly and odd.

 

The typical pattern, right up until about when Snow announced to the world that congress may have to raise the debt ceiling soon, was to see a relatively orderly progression of between $1B-$3B advance per business day.

 

Ever since the announcement, it's been stuck.

 

Remember, August is not one of the four months where quarterly tax receipts com in. But even if it were, the tax receipts tend to come in on the due date. Not evenly across the month to keep the number from budging.

 

Given the horrendous $69B deficit reported for July (this is the Fed deficit, not trade) I suspect that it is highly unlikely that government outlays have exactly matched inlays(?) for August.

 

This will be one of those months where they shuffle invoices and bank accounts until one day, suddenly, the debt will pop for $50-$60B and cause the Mogambu to run screaming to his sofa-cushion bunker.

 

Current? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Amount

 

? 08/13/2004? ? ? ? $7,312,230,696,984.50

 

 

?  Current

? ? Month

 

? 08/12/2004? ? ? ? $7,312,306,434,333.71

? 08/11/2004? ? ? ? $7,305,246,621,955.51

? 08/10/2004? ? ? ? $7,308,629,683,239.34

? 08/09/2004? ? ? ? $7,305,298,980,147.07

? 08/06/2004? ? ? ? $7,304,927,057,132.91

? 08/05/2004? ? ? ? $7,305,957,273,110.85

? 08/04/2004? ? ? ? $7,300,833,399,186.25

? 08/03/2004? ? ? ? $7,299,762,420,227.71

? 08/02/2004? ? ? ? $7,303,319,122,668.55

 

? ? Prior

? ? Months

 

? 07/30/2004? ? ? ? $7,316,567,571,232.89

The debt is soon running up against its legal limits within the next month. There are probably some complicated moves a foot to deal with the possibility that Congress will not increase the ceiling in time.

 

Moody's Affirms US Debt Rating, Warns Of Future Trouble

 

By MICHAEL S. DERBY

August 16, 2004 5:42 p.m.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

 

NEW YORK -- Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Monday affirmed the U.S.'s top tier credit rating, but warned that the nation needs to take seriously the issue of getting its financial house in order.

 

"You do have a huge problem" that will begin to become apparent beginning some time after 2010 and progressively worsening thereafter, largely on the back of Medicare-related spending, Hess said.

 

"We think that there is still time for the government to do something to fix this," Hess said. But if there's no action, "eventually - I don't think it's during the next several years - but eventually the triple A rating of the United States could come under some pressure."

 

While the ratings agency expressed some concern about what a prospective Democratic president might do to tackle the fiscal challenges, Hess singled out the Bush Administration and its policies as a big part of the problem. He said of the current government: "It's not addressing the long term problem at all," and its tax cuts and increases in Medicare spending "are going in the opposite direction of fixing the long term problem."

 

Hess said that ultimately he's optimistic politicians will tackle the problems that if left unattended could force a rating downgrade. "There will eventually be enough political pressure to fix this problem," he said. "That's what we think now."

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,BT_CO_200...ticle%2Dbody%29

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am pretty much of a pariah at work now ... While everyone else is scheming and braining about how to win more business, I find my mind wandering sometimes straying into "out-of-body" territory as the little voice pops up in my head and says "what the hell are you doing here?".

 

It's a sign of genius, Sphinx:

 

There is a disconcerting moment in Hawking, the BBC2 drama about the wheelchair-bound Cambridge physicist, when a large, gormless young man announces to a startled barmaid: 'I think in a number of dimensions. I can't get back quickly for words or beer.'

 

I can explain everything

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Launchpad Construction

 

Preparations Under Way

 

Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

 

30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HB - I expect this ...

 

Moody's Affirms US Debt Rating, Warns Of Future Trouble

 

By MICHAEL S. DERBY

August 16, 2004 5:42 p.m.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

 

NEW YORK -- Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Monday affirmed the U.S.'s top tier credit rating, but warned that the nation needs to take seriously the issue of getting its financial house in order.

 

To be followed by this ...

 

SEC announces major investigation of Moody's

 

By Clueless S. Cribe

August 16, 2004 5:43 p.m.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

 

NEW YORK -- The SEC announced a major investigation of rating agency Moody's Investors Service and warned that jail time in Cuba is not out of the possibility...

 

:P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In Adam Smith book of 1968..."The Money Game".....he asked

Mr. Johnson.......founder of Fidelity to wax philosophic on the Zietgeist

of the times.

 

Mr Johnsons reply , was that the " dominant theme of our Age is un-reality.

 

I submit that in the ensuing years we have passed into a new transverse.

 

Now, it should read.."the dominant theme of our Age, is CONFLICT."

 

No matter the issue, no matter the nomenclature.................................

 

..........conflict............conflict..............and more conflict....................

 

Each person dealing with a paradox of conflicts to the core....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...